Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[TheTalkingMule]

Yes, I'm buying LEAPs for the first time today in case you were wondering.

Took a peek at Jan2024 $2000c this morning and was surprised to see it only up 19% with SP up 10%+. Was sitting at $22x this morning down from it's peak of $27x back at $1225.

With all the leverage opportunities gone by, at least I was smart enough to follow the folks on this board who pointed out $1000c/$1300c Jun2023 spreads were only $34 back in the summer/fall. They accurately described that as "free money".

Perhaps these $2000c for Jan2024 are the same. Two years from now, Elon will likely be bioluminescent and hovering a few meters above ground.

 

[Artful Dodger]

18650 ought to go into stationary TE products once 4680s are in supply

Clearly that has not happened. In 2021, Tesla had on the order of 50,000 x 100 kwh of surplus supply of 18650s available (due to the decrease in S/X production vs 2019), yet we saw exactly ZERO products from TE shipped with those surplus 18650 cells, even while Elon told us specifically that Powerwall is limited by cell supply.

The resolution to this apparent contradiction came during the 2020 Q2 Conference Call when Elon explained why Tesla wants to limit the number of batteries it uses to 2 or 3 types:

Tesla wants to limit battery variety | electrive.com

www.electrive.com

Musk outlines the ideal case with two formats and two chemistries as follows: Two-thirds of all Tesla vehicles will get an “iron chemistry” – i.e. LFP cells – and only one-third “for the demanding applications” will be planned with a nickel-heavy chemistry. Stationary storage such as the Powerwall for home users and the Megapacks for large stationary power storage are also to be converted to LFP cells – partly because of the availability of iron. Musk, on the other hand, sees the “much scarcer nickel” also in “long-distance road transport, ships and planes and things like that”.

TL;dr It's just too much engineering effort to support all these different bty types in so many products.

Cheers!

 

[Discoducky]

I'm going out on a limb and say that hedgies aren't going to defend these call walls or next weeks so I think we run to $1400 (barring macro affects) as we are in a TA bull trend with tons of good info on the near horizon (Giga Texas and Berlin ramping up).

And I realize that future weeks walls are very volatile, but the week of 1/21 is interesting as there are much bigger call walls than this week or next week which I expect to dissolve. I'm watching those...

This week

Next week, much smaller call walls...

Week of 1/21 expiry, much bigger call walls...currently

 

[mrmage]

Is that it actually? I'd be curious to know how, quarter after failed PT prediction quarter, Ryan Brinkman is still the automotive analyst at JPM? This is a huge, legit brokerage-bank that has its analyst doubling-down on a losing bet over years and years. Is there no internal oversight? JPM and its clients have lost out on the investment story of the decade. I'd be interested to hear what people with insight think about how this all continues.

FTFY

Google: tesla jp morgan

 

[SN_8]

Putting this here as we inch towards 1175...

https://twitter.com/x/status/1478014122625277956

 

[SO16]

Remember that “sky is falling” Tesla Model S front latch recall that the shorts were screaming about?

Well, I just had mobile service come out and check my 2017 MS. Was just fine. Took him about 45 seconds.

Had there been an issue, he said it would take about 20 minutes to fix.

 

[MABMAB]

I know we're all fixated with the ticker today (what's new?) But if you want a wonderful insight into what it's like to work for Tesla check out this video by @farzyness and Joe Justice. Both share their experiences working for the company and what makes it so unique.

I wonder when the suppliers to TSLA will start yt channels. Then the guys hauling the trash can start one, talk about what is different. Then the downstream sewer treatment plants can talk about what is different about the effluent from there.

Both of those guys were interesting to listen to once, but building a whole darn YT channel? I must really be getting old cause I don't value the YT parasites the way others do.

 

[MartinAustin]

OK... only 6% below all-time high. Nicer territory than the $900 slums

 

[Curt Renz]

Tesmanian - today: Tesla Model 3 Rises to Become Best-Selling Vehicle in Switzerland for 2021

Excerpt:

Tesla Model 3 became the top-selling car in Switzerland in 2021, surpassing the most popular internal combustion engine vehicles that have enjoyed consumer love for decades. This demonstrates a shift in interest to EVs, which will soon completely displace ICE cars from automotive markets around the world.

 

[jw934]

Walter Isaacson praising and defending Elon Musk and his achievements on CNBC, pushing back on the interviewer's FUD. Delicious.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=so9WpA-vcj4

 

[Pezpunk]

doh, only 4 cents away from being a truly epic amount in one of my savings accounts --

 

[UltradoomY]

I'm going out on a limb and say that hedgies aren't going to defend these call walls or next weeks so I think we run to $1400 (barring macro affects) as we are in a TA bull trend with tons of good info on the near horizon (Giga Texas and Berlin ramping up).

And I realize that future weeks walls are very volatile, but the week of 1/21 is interesting as there are much bigger call walls than this week or next week which I expect to dissolve. I'm watching those...

This week

View attachment 751473

Next week, much smaller call walls...

View attachment 751478

Week of 1/21 expiry, much bigger call walls...currently

View attachment 751477

The 21st is a Leap expiration - a Quad witching expiration at that - Weekly, Monthly, Quarterly and Yearly expiration.
So not only is that going to mean lots of contracts - it will also show a lot of very interesting strikes because of the split.
Usually that means plenty of MM volatility.

 

[Curt Renz]

CNBC interviews Dan Ives of Wedbush on Tesla - hour ago:

 

[insaneoctane]

Clearly that has not happened. In 2021, Tesla had on the order of 50,000 x 100 kwh of surplus supply of 18650s available (due to the decrease in S/X production vs 2019), yet we saw exactly ZERO products from TE shipped with those surplus 18650 cells, even while Elon told us specifically that Powerwall is limited by cell supply.

The resolution to this apparent contradiction came during the 2020 Q2 Conference Call when Elon explained why Tesla wants to limit the number of batteries it uses to 2 or 3 types:

Tesla wants to limit battery variety | electrive.com

www.electrive.com

TL;dr It's just too much engineering effort to support all these different bty types in so many products.

Cheers!

Agreed about the many types....18650, 2170, 4680. But, *if* I'm correct about 4680 capability to charge quicker than all previous form factors, don't you admit Tesla might face difficulty with the $100K+ flagships sticking with the old tech? Seems like while Tesla is battery constrained, finding use for available 18650s is prudent...I just am not sure that's in the MS/MX or TE products...

Edit: One possibility is Tesla might install, but not expose the 4680s full potential (purposely reduce/limit charge rate) until it's being installed in all vehicles?

 

[Tyler34]

I'm going out on a limb and say that hedgies aren't going to defend these call walls or next weeks so I think we run to $1400 (barring macro affects) as we are in a TA bull trend with tons of good info on the near horizon (Giga Texas and Berlin ramping up).

And I realize that future weeks walls are very volatile, but the week of 1/21 is interesting as there are much bigger call walls than this week or next week which I expect to dissolve. I'm watching those...

This week

View attachment 751473

Next week, much smaller call walls...

View attachment 751478

Week of 1/21 expiry, much bigger call walls...currently

View attachment 751477

I have some $100 calls that expire on 1/21, do you think they will try to defend those?

 

[EVMeister]

I must really be getting old cause I don't value the YT parasites the way others do.

Probably.

Somebody sharing their passions in an engaging way are not parasites in my book. And the video I linked to isn't even monetised. I find their insights and stories interesting and also inspiring as a TSLA investor. Like others pointed out (and I did a few days ago), these videos are nice in that you can just give them a casual listen in the background when doing other things. I'm a great multi-tasker - F5ing the thread, listening to the podcast and watching the ticker. Triple win.

 

[Big Time]

Wen Moodys?

 

[Curt Renz]

Benzinga - 13:26 EST: Tesla Analysts Up Price Target Following Q4 Deliveries Beat; '2022 The Year EV Maker Begins To Perform Like A Tera-Cap'

 

[CLK350]

Is that it actually? I'd be curious to know how, quarter after failed PT prediction quarter, Ryan Brinkman is still the automotive analyst at JPM? This is a huge, legit brokerage-bank that has its analyst doubling-down on a losing bet over years and years. Is there no internal oversight? JPM and its clients have lost out on the investment story of the decade. I'd be interested to hear what people with insight think about how this all continues.

Wall Street *IS* the FUD - recently clearly documented, remember ? Question we should be asking is when are we going to prosecute those ennemies of the USA per our Constitution enemies within and without ?

Edit: typo & missing link added

 

[loquitur]

Probably.

Somebody sharing their passions in an engaging way are not parasites in my book. And the video I linked to isn't even monetised. I find their insights and stories interesting and also inspiring as a TSLA investor. Like others pointed out (and I did a few days ago), these videos are nice in that you can just give them a casual listen in the background when doing other things. I'm a great multi-tasker - F5ing the thread, listening to the podcast and watching the ticker. Triple win.

I approach chatty Youtube vids by turning on closed captions w/o sound,
then hi-speed scrub the five or ten minute video in 5 or 10 seconds.
If there are charts to absorb, it's sometimes worth a slowdown.