Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Curt Renz]

Pulse 2.0 - 8:03: Tesla (TSLA) Stock: $1,125 Price Target And Outperform Rating

Excerpt:

The shares of Tesla Inc (NASDAQ: TSLA) have received a $1,125 price target from Credit Suisse. And Credit Suisse analyst Dan Levy increased the price target from $1,025 while assigning the company an “Outperform” rating.

Levy is expecting Tesla to easily beat the Q1 EPS consensus of $2.26 and he is predicting $2.56. Plus Levy added that investors will remain focused on margins amid cost inflation.

 

[Ogre]

Seem to me SP movement will be more based on how quickly Shanghai can return to operation and how quickly Austin and Berlin ramp up.

Exceptionally good news on the 4680 ramp might move things as well because thats the lever that their new products out the door.

 

[CLK350]

Seem to me SP movement will be more based on how quickly Shanghai can return to operation and how quickly Austin and Berlin ramp up.

Exceptionally good news on the 4680 ramp might move things as well because thats the lever that their new products out the door.

Nah - it's the macros and the usual multiplier - see Papafox daily charts / review for an ongoing score card and education

Papafox's Daily TSLA Trading Charts

Wednesday, March 23, 2022 analysis TSLA chart above QQQ chart above Two numbers best sum up what transpired with Wednesday's TSLA trading: volume was 40.1 million shares traded and TSLA traded 1.87% stronger than the NASDAQ. Those numbers show that a lot of buyers wanted to pick up TSLA...

teslamotorsclub.com

 

[TheTalkingMule]

It’s the second pic that gives that perspective

That second pic provides relevance, not perspective.

Great, there's 55% more ships waiting to unload. Does that take 2 hours or 2 months to unwind?

Uncertainty breeds "concern".

 

[UncaNed]

What about an umbrella policy? We must protect our new found wealth. Hit a bus full of doctors and we're poor again.

So does Tesla insurance bundle with homeowner's, renter's and umbrella policies like any other insurance company so that we can just move everything to Tesla insurance, or does Tesla only do auto?

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Super low volume and MM's are finding it tough to hold 1030. Let's see how deep they're willing to short ahead of earnings.

 

[Artful Dodger]

So, do people think Tesla will deploy their now bulging ~$8B deferred tax assets / valuation allowance in Q1, or wait for the low tide in Queue Too?

From information provided by James Stephenson, 80% of the VA can be claimed in a single quarter, then the remaining 20% must be deferred until the following FY. That'd be 2023Q1 at the earliest, albeit Q1 is traditionally a light quarter.

Cheers!

 

[ggies07]

This post is sensational... with all the good and bad that suggests. It's comparing apples to oranges. Nevertheless, the prices enable us to do a fairer cost comparison.

My math suggests it costs about 31% to drive a Tesla Model LR compared to driving a Toyota Camry (does that look about right?):

View attachment 795353

Much less sensational than comparing price / gallon to price / KWh, but a more important conclusion IMHO. Yes, the Model 3 LR is more expensive to buy than a base Toyota Camry, but that's not what the price of fuel is comparing.

Source: https://www.sterlingmccalltoyota.com/2022-toyota-camry-gas-tank-size/#:~:text=The Camry has a maximum,gallon city and 39mpg highway.

Someone missed the point......

 

[dhanson865]

At 44:40 Elon is talking about SpaceX and Starship. There will be 1000 Starship's in an amada going to Mars every 2 years. About 100 people on each Starship. Over 10 years about 1,000,000 people on Mars. I had no idea of the magnitude of these numbers. Before seeing this discussion I was wondering why SpaceX was trying to mass produce rockets.

And the relevance to TSLA beyond the public perception is there will be a lot of Tesla robots on those ships and maybe a few cybertrucks also.

 

[UncaNed]

Concensus seems to be a drop after earnings tomorrow, therefore I see us crossing 1200 just after GOOG earnings next Tuesday and moving up from there.

The numbers have gotten too far out of whack, PE is too "wrong". A violent correction to the upside is needed to restore uncertainty in the TSLA options market.

Whack unavailable due to supply chain issues.

 

[Mengy]

So, do people think Tesla will deploy their now bulging ~$8B deferred tax assets / valuation allowance in Q1, or wait for the low tide in Queue Too?

From information provided by James Stephenson, 80% of the VA can be claimed in a single quarter, then the remaining 20% must be deferred until the following FY. That'd be 2023Q1 at the earliest, albeit Q1 is traditionally a light quarter.

I think Tesla will save it for Q2 to make up for Shanghai being closed for a month. Tomorrow should be a beat on it's own even with mostly the same production from last quarter given we won't have the one time spends we had in Q4 2021.

 

[Krugerrand]

Concerning….

https://twitter.com/x/status/1516072677999583234

This was already posted here a day or more ago. The current situation was;

1. Expected given the COVID protocols in Shanghai.
2. Not surprising - see #1

Define concerning. Are you concerned the ships will sink before they get unloaded? That some sort of confusion has or will ensue because of the congestion? That it’s a situation that can’t ever be solved and thus spirals into a ship graveyard or some such?

From what I have observed, the Chinese are some of the hardest working people on the planet. That they’re willing to work 24/7 and even on important Chinese holidays in some cases, to achieve a goal.

So, I would not define the situation as ‘concerning’. It’s just what it is, a backlog of ships to be unloaded and goods transported.

Yeah, I know what you’re trying to get at. Next time just come out and say what you’re thinking and how you think that may impact Tesla and/or TSLA at varies points in time.

Basically, Q2 is going to be a ? until July 1st-3rd. At such time we’ll either be disappointed, pat ourselves on the back for being right, or pleasantly surprised.

As usual, I will put forth my quarter number (now slightly revised) of 283,000. That should cover it no matter what happens and allow me to feel all three emotions simultaneously and remain unconcerned.

 

[GOVA]

At 44:40 Elon is talking about SpaceX and Starship. There will be 1000 Starship's in an amada going to Mars every 2 years. About 100 people on each Starship. Over 10 years about 1,000,000 people on Mars. I had no idea of the magnitude of these numbers. Before seeing this discussion I was wondering why SpaceX was trying to mass produce rockets.

Mars is INCREDIBLY far. Only a few really get it. I think that some failure coefficient needs to be applied to this simple math. Don't confuse this with a bus trip.

Visualizer

 

[insaneoctane]

That second pic provides relevance, not perspective.

Great, there's 55% more ships waiting to unload. Does that take 2 hours or 2 months to unwind?

Uncertainty breeds "concern".

Well, feel free to question the accuracy of the data (it’s from Twitter), but I still don’t look at the graph without concern. It shows 3x as many ships to unload vs average, or 50% more than any time in the last 5 years. I don’t need to know exactly how long it will take to unwind to be concerned because I am absolutely positive it's NOT 2 hours. My concern made me share it so that the more knowledgeable and resourceful participants of this thread can help dig and learn more...

 

[Accident]

Regardless of the loading time at the Shanghai port, I think it's a great time to stop the end of quarter delivery rush in Europe.

Getting new cars delivered in Europe before the end of Q2 it's going to be almost impossible anyway.

 

[DarkandStormy]

So, do people think Tesla will deploy their now bulging ~$8B deferred tax assets / valuation allowance in Q1, or wait for the low tide in Queue Too?

From the last 10-K:

 

[mongo]

So, do people think Tesla will deploy their now bulging ~$8B deferred tax assets / valuation allowance in Q1, or wait for the low tide in Queue Too?

From information provided by James Stephenson, 80% of the VA can be claimed in a single quarter, then the remaining 20% must be deferred until the following FY. That'd be 2023Q1 at the earliest, albeit Q1 is traditionally a light quarter.

Cheers!

They will not any time soon.

They still have a huge loss carry foward of $31B federal and the US has low to negative net profit due to SG&A, R&D, and other abbreviations .

Note 14:
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1318605/000095017022000796/tsla-20211231.htm

Portion:

hese factors included, but were not limited to, a history of losses in prior years, excess tax benefits related to stock-based compensation, future reversal of existing temporary differences and tax planning strategies. After evaluating all available evidence, we intend to continue maintaining a full valuation allowance on our U.S. deferred tax assets until there is sufficient evidence to support the reversal of all or some portion of these allowances. Given the improvement in our operating results and depending on the amount of stock-based compensation tax deductions available in the future, we may release the valuation allowance associated with the U.S. deferred tax assets in the next few years. Release of all, or a portion, of the valuation allowance would result in the recognition of certain deferred tax assets and a decrease to income tax expense for the period the release is recorded.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

I think Tesla will save it for Q2 to make up for Shanghai being closed for a month. Tomorrow should be a beat on it's own even with mostly the same production from last quarter given we won't have the one time spends we had in Q4 2021.

Well with these Shanghai disruptions have opened a perfectly good Wall Street narrative window for the summer.

MM's hold the line at 1100/1150 after blowout 1Q earnings. Just short like crazy knowing the low-volume regulation-free summer gives them the opportunity to slowly unwind.

Everyone(hedgies and MM execs) goes to the beach til September since 2Q earnings might be impacted and it can easily be spun to hold SP thru 2Q earnings.

Even with this Shanghai shutdown, I actually thing Tesla will deliver roughly the 2Q units expected here. Add the deferred tax assets to 2Q earnings and you see SP blast off while these clowns are sitting on the beach and potentially still short.

That's if 1Q doesn't do the job first of course. After the shenanigans of January, and now that the two factories are up, I think it's time Zach got a bit more militant toward these clowns.

 

[The Accountant]

Q1 2022 Earnings Estimates

Still waiting on Rob Maurer & Troy Teslike.
I've added the Whisper Number. This is the unofficial expectation among Wall Street professionals not published.
In theory, a company needs to beat the Whisper Number to see a positive share price reaction.

 

[MartinAustin]

Just a thought... in the past, Tesla have sometimes used earnings calls to make product change announcements and updates to the ordering website. Perhaps the Austin-made Standard Range Model Y will be announced.