Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[henchman24]

It all depends upon the Fed and Russia on if this is a dead cat bounce vs. bottom out.

I think any rally here will be stopped within the downward channel. The mid point of the 20 week BB sits at 13,200 this week and is dropping quick. My guess any rally here would only extend into next week and likely die before 13k. Breaking above 13,000-13,200 will be pretty difficult in this market.

 

[sbradbury]

I think people are really underestimating the damage that's been done to the Tesla brand image in the last few weeks... Used to hearing the occasional comments here and there about quality and random fires over the last 10 years, but it's so much worse now. People I've never heard from or seen comment on Tesla are relentlessly bashing them.

 

[SOULPEDL]

I *became* an investor because I was a fan.

I *remain* an investor because of the business fundamentals.

OT, in for multiple reasons, stayed for the mission.

Spoiler

Initially I liked the Tesla brand because I didn't want to work on cars anymore, especially our Newer Beetle was just out of warranty and already nickel and diming us on misc parts and requiring a special socket set... for an oil change, then another 3 hrs for a simple battery swap. Cute car... not missed.

Then I heard about FSD, saw the video in ~2015 and knew self-driving was near! (Investments underway)
Then we ordered a Model 3 -- along with 600 other people IN LINE at any one moment, one location. (Investments increased)
Then I learned more about politics, social media, the SEC, MMD and the Madoff Rule. (All in, HODLing, bored)

 

[Drax7]

If this drops to 500, I will propably get back on board. Number is based on completely arbitary point, that I sold approximately there and it is a nice round number.

If it drops to zero Elon will give me the keys to the factory.
frankly nobody cares.

 

[SO16]

I think people are really underestimating the damage that's been done to the Tesla brand image in the last few weeks... Used to hearing the occasional comments here and there about quality and random fires over the last 10 years, but it's so much worse now. People I've never heard from or seen comment on Tesla are relentlessly bashing them.

Will probably equal out fine.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1528702923265433600

 

[henchman24]

I think people are really underestimating the damage that's been done to the Tesla brand image in the last few weeks... Used to hearing the occasional comments here and there about quality and random fires over the last 10 years, but it's so much worse now. People I've never heard from or seen comment on Tesla are relentlessly bashing them.

I think the damage is impossible to quantify right now. If the backlog disappears in the next 6 months, well, yeah the damage is huge. If the backlog continues roughly where it is right now, we won't likely know for years...

 

[Krugerrand]

It all depends upon the Fed and Russia on if this is a dead cat bounce vs. bottom out.

 

[bkp_duke]

Woah, someone started buying.

 

[bkp_duke]

Literally, it's the technical term.

 

[kanweg]

Chlorophyll

 

[larmor]

I think the damage is impossible to quantify right now. If the backlog disappears in the next 6 months, well, yeah the damage is huge. If the backlog continues roughly where it is right now, we won't likely know for years...

The market as a whole was poised for a correction with zero to negative interest rates and now inflation. Tesla's growth continues with existing products and new products, as well as pivot shift to FSD software and possibly hardware subscription service. Inventory and deliveries are just in time, and really if there is so much 'damage' to the brand, Tesla would be making the lower margin cars for ready delivery... But instead, the real damage is to ICE as gas prices continue to soar, now in El Centro CA-- literally in the middle of now where, relatively speaking, gas is at $6.50.

 

[Mike Smith]

Electrek reporting Tesla will reach record production at Shanghai starting tomorrow:

Tesla is back to ramping up Gigafactory Shanghai to new production records

Tesla is back to ramping up production at Gigafactory Shanghai. The automaker could reportedly be back to pre-shutdown level as...

electrek.co

'Tesla will more than double its daily output to 2,600 electric vehicles at its Shanghai plant from Tuesday, according to the memo detailing the plan. That compares to around 1,000 EVs produced on Monday, according to the memo, and would bring Tesla’s weekly output to nearly 16,000 units, the memo showed.'

 

[OrthoSurg]

WoW, what a buying spike

 

[henchman24]

The market as a whole was poised for a correction with zero to negative interest rates and now inflation. Tesla's growth continues with existing products and new products, as well as pivot shift to FSD software and possibly hardware subscription service. Inventory and deliveries are just in time, and really if there is so much 'damage' to the brand, Tesla would be making the lower margin cars for ready delivery... But instead, the real damage is to ICE as gas prices continue to soar, now in El Centro CA-- literally in the middle of now where, relatively speaking, gas is at $6.50.

Oh yeah the market was hot and needed a correction.

With Tesla specifically, the margins and waitlist are going to be the signs to watch. Which is why i don't think we can really quantify any damage to the brand. There are clearly some issues on the left right now, but are they being offset by the right? We won't know that until the numbers start coming in.

My personal theory... until production can ramp up on EVs by other players (which is years away), Tesla is fairly immune to demand destruction. There is so much demand for EVs that can only be filled by Tesla in the US.

 

[ZeApelido]

Bullish as peak searching for “recession “ tends to happen when market is already at bottom .

https://twitter.com/x/status/1528420973766131714

 

[Todd Burch]

I remain of the opinion that TSLA's weakness has primarily been Shanghai (not Tesla's fault) if anything, and not Elon's politics or Twitter stuff or FUD or Tesla arson. (Even if you include all the obvious arson cases over the last few days, Tesla's still catch fire significantly less than gas cars) . Anyway, with the news out that Shanghai has not only resumed but has come back with record daily production numbers, I think we're headed back up. FOMO will be intense, so we should go up quickly.

That will help calm the fears of this oversold market.

 

[petit_bateau]

Sorry about all the ups and down. I decided to take advantage of the lows by moving my last unsheltered TSLA into my tax-sheltered accounts, and that meant some selling as well as some buying. So you can blame it on me

All done now. And I even did some sums and bought some more.

 

[Krugerrand]

Literally, it's the technical term.

Literally . It’s discriminatory or something.

I put forth we include all the animals of the kingdom and rotate them throughout history. We could do it alphabetically like naming hurricanes.

Dead alpaca bounce.
Dead buffalo bounce.
Dead camel bounce.
Dead DOG bounce.
Dead elephant bounce.
Dead ferret bounce.
Dead gorilla bounce.
Dead hippopotamus bounce.
Dead iguana bounce.

And so on.

 

[Nocturnal]

You can thank me for the spike up because I bought a little bit of protection puts.

Literally . It’s discriminatory or something.

I put forth we include all the animals of the kingdom and rotate them throughout history. We could do it alphabetically like naming hurricanes.

Dead alpaca bounce.
Dead buffalo bounce.
Dead camel bounce.
Dead DOG bounce.
Dead elephant bounce.
Dead ferret bounce.
Dead gorilla bounce.
Dead hippopotamus bounce.
Dead iguana bounce.

And so on.

Are you proposing that we drop all of these animals from a set height and then measure how far they bounce to see if they can be used in this metaphor?

 

[Krugerrand]

Woah, someone started buying.

Woah? You sure that’s the word we want to use. Giddy up might be more constructive and encouraging at this point.