Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[unk45]

In the spectrum of Elon tweets, this is hardly worth an eyebrow raise.

Nope. See post #349,955. Then think, navigating successfully without any map references, as is postulated by Elon just now, makes an entirely different construct than we've 'almost' all imagined. Is it possible that all the FSD challenges are the product of trying to replicate human capabilities without attention lapses and other impairments. Mostly, people assume that is improbable. If Elon is correct that Tesla is on the verge of FSD managing with zero maps, the the 4th quarter or so FSD in tunnels suddenly seems more nearly plausible.

It's probably safe to say that entry/egress and emergencies are the principal challenges right now.
If that is true and they're solved...

@The Accountant and the other mavens need to begin to dust off some very large income recognition later this year.

 

[Krugerrand]

The CCP at this point is the biggest threat to Tesla investors.

I really hope Tesla is diversifying out of China as fast as they can.

 

[Krugerrand]

View attachment 825290
Why the hell did he even respond to that? Of what possible value could any conceivable answer be?

So far, responses in this thread confirm my frustration: zero.

I imagine he responded for the same reason you posted - because he wanted to.

 

[Krugerrand]

Denizens of SFO who are 'of a certain age' will remember the history of Baghdad By the Bay. We really don't need to "Gettyize" the Bay area and more than thinking "Chinatown" explains the LA basin. Both have seeds of fact, wildly exaggerated. The only connection all this has to TSLA, Tesla of Elon Musk is that nearly everyone in those area is convinced they have all the facts.

Well organized and presented conspiracy theories are still what they are. The most convincing ones, as in these two, carefully begin with truth, actual facts. I apologize if I offend anyone. Since infancy this and related oil, gas and water conspiracy theories have been abundant wherever I have lived. People often prefer FUD to truth. Truth itself is not pleasant these days, nor is California energy policy. Lets eschew obfuscation, and make an effort to avoid exaggeration.

Note: several posters here and a mod or two have family backgrounds that include substantial investments long ago made in oil & gas and ICE related businesses too. Any of us who are old enough to remember know that 'BT' nobody imagined BEV could be a good choice. Many people long dead thought it could, but the electric starter ended that. Most of the people mentioned plus quite a few of us are the progeny of people who helped build California after WWII. Only recently, After Tesla, do we see alternatives and blame our antecedents for their errors. My 96 year old mother-in-law recently reminded me about these facts, at her birthday party.

As I’ve known since childhood; people suck.

 

[Words of HABIT]

CPCA Reporting that Tesla China delivered 78k in June.
The previous record was 65.8k in March.
China did enter June with 10k undelivered vehicles from Apr/May. This would mean production of about 68k-70k.
Most of the deliveries would have been into the local Chinese market.
Bullish !!!!

Thanks @The Accountant for this info. Tesla China GF delivered 78k in June, 2022. That's a current 936k annual run rate, just from one GF, and improving.

And some posters here want Tesla to diversify away from China as quickly as possible. Say what?!

 

[Krugerrand]

Nasdaq and macros are turning green…..TSLA still capped at 1% down.

Gee, I wonder what kind of day we have in store for ourselves today

Yep, you keep talking like that, Nancy, and we’ll be green before I get pants on.

 

[2daMoon]

All I can say is that ALL of the lazy investors who make their TSLA purchase decisions based upon glancing at headlines from the mainstream media will suffer from regret over the long run.

How many of those will come to despise the media after realizing the shortcomings of their abbreviated data gathering will remain to be seen.

The number of investors who are actually learning enough to be able to easily discount FUD are a very small percentage. This group will be laughing all the way to the bank, should they ever sell their , or , or whatever in order to purchase that they lost while scrounging for loose change to increase their position.

HODL!

 

[Singuy]

Elon said the FSD development roadmap already includes the ability to drive on roads w/o map data: (June 5, 2022)

Elon Musk on Twitter: "Also, FSD Beta 10.12.2 now expanding to 100k cars. 10.13 smooths out intersection control, especially long lefts, and starts to handle roads with no map data at all. Last point is a big deal. Within a few months, FSD should be able to drive to a GPS point with zero map data." / Twitter

Let's not be too optimistic about these type of tweets. Like his tweets about fsd reversing or can detect gates, lots are turning out to not mean what we thought they meant as many of these features are utilized in very specific circumstances that many testers are still trying to figure out what they are.

 

[ZachF]

It’s one of the biggest addressable market but on the other hand the super strict covid shutdown policy is also its Achilles’ tendon weakness.

The problem was the incredible pace this factory was put in service and how incredibly fast the ramping up occurred. Now when it shuts down it makes a big hole in the spreadsheet and we don’t want to see that every quarter.

But now that we have Berlin and Texas operational the effect will never be as though as Q2, which on par P&D numbers did not even affect the SP. Really bullish.

The other major problem is the CCP could shut down/confiscate Giga Shanghai at any time for any reason. One of Elon’s tweets rubs chairman Pooh the wrong way? No more factory for you.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

All I can say is that ALL of the lazy investors who make their TSLA purchase decisions based upon glancing at headlines from the mainstream media will suffer from regret over the long run.

I wonder how much of the FUD is intended to deter buyers of Tesla stock vs deterring buyers of Tesla products

 

[The Accountant]

Nasdaq and macros are turning green…..TSLA still capped at 1% down.

Gee, I wonder what kind of day we have in store for ourselves today

Expecting the same head fake today. Start off Red and finish Green.

 

[Nocturnal]

The other major problem is the CCP could shut down/confiscate Giga Shanghai at any time for any reason. One of Elon’s tweets rubs chairman Pooh the wrong way? No more factory for you.

That would be a major international incident. China would gain nothing and lose trillions in investments.

Expecting the same head fake today. Start off Red and finish Green.

That's what I figured as well, and it already is.

 

[Singuy]

The other major problem is the CCP could shut down/confiscate Giga Shanghai at any time for any reason. One of Elon’s tweets rubs chairman Pooh the wrong way? No more factory for you.

Yeah the most unfriendly place to invest on earth even though their gdp exploded due to foreign investments over the last 30 years /s

The only place I see a risk is the US with all that anti Elon and Tesla bashing by our government and MSM.

 

[2daMoon]

I wonder how much of the FUD is intended to deter buyers of Tesla stock vs deterring buyers of Tesla products

Clearly, it is another "which came first, the chicken or the egg" scenarios.

The way I see it today, folks are standing in line to buy products at ever increasing prices and if that is the FUD spinner's target it isn't working. It might even be an advantage for Tesla if the FUD reduces the wait time somewhat. Besides, the buyer of a car won't be as impacted by FUD if they wait to purchase their first BEV because of it.

The investor though, that guy is gonna be very upset if they ever come to realize how not seeing through the FUD cost them a fortune.

 

[Gigapress]

Nope. See post #349,955. Then think, navigating successfully without any map references, as is postulated by Elon just now, makes an entirely different construct than we've 'almost' all imagined. Is it possible that all the FSD challenges are the product of trying to replicate human capabilities without attention lapses and other impairments. Mostly, people assume that is improbable. If Elon is correct that Tesla is on the verge of FSD managing with zero maps, the the 4th quarter or so FSD in tunnels suddenly seems more nearly plausible.

It's probably safe to say that entry/egress and emergencies are the principal challenges right now.
If that is true and they're solved...

@The Accountant and the other mavens need to begin to dust off some very large income recognition later this year.

In the process of building the Loop a digital twin of the tunnel network and stations would’ve been made, and this is an HD map. However, I’ve had discussion with @Discoducky about this off this thread and he thinks that Tesla won’t use HD maps even in the Loop where HD maps would be much more reliable and maintainable than surface roads. I’ll let him comment more on that if he wants, but I was convinced.

On r/BoringCompany there’s been extensive discussion of why LVCC Loop is still using drivers and the verdict is that no one really knows.

Las Vegas Convention and Visitors Authority Board of Directors meeting minutes from January 2021 noted:

"Agreement recognizes the intent for the System to move from drivers in the vehicles to autonomous operations and provides for a fee renegotiation, no later than December 31, 2021, incorporating this expected transition in operations, as well as to incorporate any experience in post-pandemic operational requirements."

As far as I know there has been no further discussion of autonomy documented since then and no public comments from anybody about it until Elon’s tweet today. LVCVA did end up renegotiating the operations fee with Boring for employing the LVCC Loop drivers for a while longer, like a year if I remember correctly.

Is the local government demanding extreme caution about ensuring FSD will work flawlessly before taking the risk? Are Boring/Tesla voluntarily being this cautious? Are the stations and interacting with pedestrians still too complicated for FSD to work reliably without freezing up and causing an embarrassing traffic jam? Is FSD just not technically ready? Some other reason?

What we do know confidently is:

• A video was published of driving through the Hawthorne test tunnel in 2019 with someone who’s apparently a Boring Co employee. The passenger asked how fast Autopilot would go and the answer was “Autopilot right now goes up to 90 [mph] and we’re increasing over to 125.”
• The tunnel environment should be the easiest possible driving scenario for FSD because of the extremely simplified environment, uniform lighting, perfect lane lines, pristine pavement, lack of weather/random debris/animals, 100% camera coverage and 24/7 monitoring, and transition directly from 100% human driving to 100% autonomous driving with no human-robot interactions to worry about
• In light of point above, Vegas Loop will most likely be the first instance of a Tesla robotaxi service

 

[betstarship]

Rivian (nearly) quadrupled production in the last quarter.

Rivian Announces 2Q Production Numbers in Line With Expectations By Investing.com

Rivian Announces 2Q Production Numbers in Line With Expectations

www.investing.com

 

[henchman24]

Rivian (nearly) quadrupled production in the last quarter.

Rivian Announces 2Q Production Numbers in Line With Expectations By Investing.com

Rivian Announces 2Q Production Numbers in Line With Expectations

www.investing.com

4k is a good number for them and makes a lot more sense than 700 given how many Rivians I'm starting to see.

 

[2daMoon]

In the process of building the Loop a digital twin of the tunnel network and stations would’ve been made, and this is an HD map. However, I’ve had offline discussion with @Discoducky about this and he thinks that Tesla won’t use HD maps even in the Loop where HD maps would be much more reliable and maintainable than surface roads. I’ll let him comment more on that if he wants, but I was convinced.

On r/BoringCompany there’s been extensive discussion of why LVCC Loop is still using drivers and the verdict is that no one really knows.

Las Vegas Convention and Visitors Authority Board of Directors meeting minutes from January 2021 noted:


There has been no further discussion of autonomy documented since then and no public comments from anybody about it until Elon’s tweet today. LVCVA did end up renegotiating the operations fee with Boring for employing the LVCC Loop drivers for a while longer, like a year if I remember correctly.

Is the local government demanding extreme caution about ensuring FSD will work flawlessly before taking the risk? Are Boring/Tesla voluntarily being this cautious? Are the stations and interacting with pedestrians still too complicated for FSD to work reliably without freezing up and causing an embarrassing traffic jam? Is FSD just not technically ready? Some other reason?

What we do know confidently is:

• A video was published of driving through the Hawthorne test tunnel in 2019 with someone who’s apparently a Boring Co employee. The passenger asked how fast Autopilot would go and the answer was “Autopilot right now goes up to 90 [mph] and we’re increasing over to 125.”
• The tunnel environment should be the easiest possible driving scenario for FSD because of the extremely simplified environment, uniform lighting, perfect lane lines, pristine pavement, lack of weather/random debris/animals, 100% camera coverage and 24/7 monitoring, and transition directly from 100% human driving to 100% autonomous driving with no human-robot interactions to worry about
• In light of point above, Vegas Loop will most likely be the first instance of a Tesla robotaxi service

They might just be waiting for a model of car without a steering wheel to better accommodate the passengers and avoid inadvertant steering input. (this might be as easy as retrofitting the existing Boring fleet in use there)

 

[Mengy]

Thanks @The Accountant for this info. Tesla China GF delivered 78k in June, 2022. That's a current 936k annual run rate, just from one GF, and improving.

About 10K of those were inventory from the previous month though, so the production for June was actually about 70K, which equates to a yearly run rate of 840,000 for Shanghai based on June production.

Of course it's a safe bet Shanghai will increase production over the June run rate soon, so the yearly run rate is an ever increasing target.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Expecting the same head fake today. Start off Red and finish Green.

Touch the premarket high, then cap and push to the premarket low. Lol

@Yoona is no doubt laughing hysterically in the "other thread".

Free money.