No. I wouldn't want a company at the end of their business cycle to be rated based on current conditions. There has to be some subjectivity on future performance.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
The typical reaction in Europe is: ‘Is anybody surprised about this?’
Gasleiding Nord Stream 1 blijft dicht voor onbepaalde tijd ‘wegens lek’
De kraan van de gaspijpleiding Nord Stream 1 blijft dicht na afronding van een recent onderhoud. Het wordt uitkijken naar de gevolgen voor de gasprijs. Die was de voorbije dagen aanzienlijk gedaald.
www.standaard.be
Isn’t that what they do for all the legacy car manufacturers?
thesmokingman
Active Member
2daMoon
Mostly Harmless
So you're unaware that Lingang is build on land recovered from the using civil engineering techniques learned from the Dutch? And that the tallest buildings in Lingang are 3-4 stories due to foundation building issues? And that Tesla doesn't have the lease on that land? And food for their workers isn't even an issue?
So vertically. like a strawman?
It seemed to me they meant something more like a beanstalk, growing vertically.
A humorous play on Tesla's vertical integration dominance.Though they might need a scarecrow (strawman) too.
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I wouldn't have thought it but maybe Elon can start a company that goes bankrupt.
Buy the rumor sell the news? I swear everything is trading on speculation and maybe even technical analysis. NG today fell 4% on the news..perhaps selling the news? Wtf knows at this point. All of these commodity prices are being played to funnel retail investor's money into the whale's pocket it seems.The typical reaction in Europe is: ‘Is anybody surprised about this?’
Gasleiding Nord Stream 1 blijft dicht voor onbepaalde tijd ‘wegens lek’
De kraan van de gaspijpleiding Nord Stream 1 blijft dicht na afronding van een recent onderhoud. Het wordt uitkijken naar de gevolgen voor de gasprijs. Die was de voorbije dagen aanzienlijk gedaald.
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dhanson865
Well-Known Member
stop buying 18650s from Panasonic in Japan.
Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) acts as a forcing effect to get the cells from a US source. Panasonic still makes cells in US so it doesn't mean not buying 18650s from Panasonic, it just means buying 18650s from Panasonic that were made in the US.
At least that's how I read what Artful Dodger was saying.
petit_bateau
Active Member
You are ambitious. By comparison here is my central case which has gross profit per vehicle declining towards $12,781. I hope you are right mind you.
KBF
Model X owner (formerly Cdn Signature Model S)
Except you must determine that "subjective" projection based on measurable data - without a foundation in measurable reality its just a guess/opinion/(waiting for bribes). Accurate and reliable financial extrapolation requires an analysis of objective data.
Except the 18650s from Japan are only used in cars (S&X) that already don’t qualify for the IRA due to their sticker price?
One of the huge advantages Tesla has is they have multiple product lines, multiple vehicles, potentially multiple cell types per vehicle, vehicles on multiple continents, PLUS lots of different sources for cells (and more coming online).
This means Tesla can mix/ match which batteries go into which products in order to maximize profits and output. Tesla won’t stop buying 18650s, they will steer them to production which cannot benefit from those subsidies. Perhaps it’ll be Powerwalls in Europe. Who knows.
Tesla wants all the cells they can get even if some of them are more expensive. The only real question is how they maximize profits per kWh delivered.
Eventually… they will have surplus capacity and they can start getting picky about sourcing.
The price of the vehicle doesn't preclude the up to $45/kWh that can be had for cell/module production. In fact since they make the S&X modules in the Fremont plant they should get the $10/kWh credit for all of them, even though the cells come from Japan.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
U.S.A. does have a free trade agreement with Japan. It remains to be seen if the existing agreement extends industrial goods to include EV battery cells for IR Act credit purposes:
Japan Trade Agreement | U.S. Customs and Border Protection (Apr 05, 2021)
Panasonic makes 2170 cells only at Giga Nevada. All 18650s are imported from Japan. Elon has said eventually all materials/products should be sourced at least from the same continent. Long-term, Model S/X will get U.S. made cells (likely from Kato Rd.) Medium term, Roadster will likely get those 4680s. So S/X switches in a 3-5 years? Timing all depends on cell production ramp speed.
Finally, there is little chance that 18650s will go into powerwalls (diff. chemistry), and there's NO chance that 18650s will go into Megapacks. Elon has already said those storage products are switching to Iron Phosphate (LiFePO4) chemistry, likely sourced from CATL. For their part, Panasonic offered to switch production at their Japanese cell factory from 18650s to 4680s some time ago, but Tesla would still prefer to use Asian-made cells in Asia.
Cheers!
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Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
True, but that's just the Consumer rebate side of the IR Act benefits. Tesla will also qualify for the $10/KWh manufacturer's credit for assembling the bty module in the USA (Model S/X modules & packs have always been built at Fremont).
On 80K cars/yr, with 100KWh packs @ $10/KWh, that's roughly 80 million bucks. Nice bonus for Tesla, since EXISTING Model S/X production likely will qualify w/o further changes.
Cheers!
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Just to reiterate: Starship may launch this month. Tesla will show the latest for their AI-powered robot this month. It'll be the end of Q3 this month.
Happy Labor Day weekend, everyone!
Happy Labor Day weekend, everyone!
Excellent. Hopefully the "wound spring" can get us back to where we were (two weeks ago) by mid-October... /s
I'll have a glass of wine to that! It's happy hour!
2014-2019 was a very frustrating time to be all-in TSLA. But at least back then you had to be pretty smart to recognize Tesla's future. Now you literally need two or more brain cells to rub together, but apparently it's still not obvious enough for Wall Street....
(so I have another $1Million+ paper loss today - Awesome. Gee, I wonder why I'm grumpy.... AND, with the 3 days weekend, I get to be grumpy an extra day, unless we drop more next week, in which case I'm going to need a Lobotomy)
(so I have another $1Million+ paper loss today - Awesome. Gee, I wonder why I'm grumpy.... AND, with the 3 days weekend, I get to be grumpy an extra day, unless we drop more next week, in which case I'm going to need a Lobotomy)
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