Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[OrthoSurg]

13 years until 10x? Why so bearish?

On climate change, it's already later than many realize. Methane pockets started rupturing out of permafrost years ago.

I’m always more on the conservative side

I was expecting 10T valuation by 2030

 

[HellsKitchen]

13 years until 10x? Why so bearish?

On climate change, it's already later than many realize. Methane pockets started rupturing out of permafrost years ago.

My big fear is that global warming will be such an impossible problem for capitalism to solve that public stock holdings will be worthless.

 

[2daMoon]

Lutz the Putz, four short years ago.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1571583931543175171

Lutz kept using that word, "No"
I don't think that word means what he thinks it means.

Next, he'll be saying, "Hello. My name is Inigo Montoya Bob Lutz. You killed my old car company. Prepare to die!"​

 

[dhanson865]

Did you know that a powerwall after federal tax credit can be only $4900 to the consumer?

* 12 kW solar no PW $16,882
* 12 kW solar 1 PW $24,932 ($8050 above prior option)
* 12 KW solar 2 PW $29,832 ($4900 above prior option) (auto recommended option right now for me)
* 12 kW solar 3 PW $34,732 ($4900 above prior option)

I don't have notes on this PC of past pricing (I can look tonight when I get home) but that seems lower than it was. Maybe it's just the federal credit messing with my price perception because it makes it below $5,000.

July 2022 I have the prices at

12 kW Solar 1 PW $35,618

Maybe that's all changes in tax credits but it's psychologically a significant change taking it from just over $35k to just over $29k.

 

[Silent Ludicrosy]

Stellantis is doomed. The CEO wants 30 years lead time to make sure the grid and charging infrastructure is in place before starting to work on EVs.

Is this the competition that is coming?

 

[SmokyPeat]

My big fear is that global warming will be such an impossible problem for capitalism to solve that public stock holdings will be worthless.

You could invest in some Canadian farmland in that case. The hordes of lawless marauders will at least be more polite in Canada. I'll take my chances on Tesla.

 

[MikeAtkinson]

FSD 10.69.2.2 is rolling out to Beta testers. They seem to have skipped 10.69.2.1

https://twitter.com/x/status/1571736048446869509

 

[jeewee3000]

They're really trying to get FSD Beta in as good as possible a state by AI Day #2 it seems. I'm hoping we get some very concrete FSD statistics then. For example the number of interventions per 1M miles driven (since the start of FSD Beta until now).

To prepare for AI Day #2 I listened to the latest Lex Fridman Elon interview again (the third Lex-Elon talk from end of 2021). There he talked about the rate of improvement and the likelihood of FSD performing better than the average human by EOY 2022. Hopefully we'll see some nitty gritty stats around all this.

Besides Optimus and Dojo of course, but that's pretty much a given.

 

[PokerFJÆS]

Tesla Model Y is now in the top three best selling cars in China 2022 year to date. Not just EVs, but all cars.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1571751459775205376

1: SGMW Hongguang Mini (320k sold) price < ¥ 40k
2: Nissan Sylphy (313k sold) < ¥ 150k
3: Tesla Model Y (257k sold) ¥ 316k+

With the top two competitors being in decline year over year, Tesla Model Y could soon be the best selling car of all kinds in China.

 

[lascavarian]

Tesla Model Y is now in the top three best selling cars in China 2022 year to date. Not just EVs, but all cars.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1571751459775205376

1: SGMW Hongguang Mini (320k sold) price < ¥ 40k
2: Nissan Sylphy (313k sold) < ¥ 150k
3: Tesla Model Y (257k sold) ¥ 316k+

With the top two competitors being in decline year over year, Tesla Model Y could soon be the best selling car of all kinds in China.

Thanks for that. Hard to imagine coming this quickly.

For those so inclined, I see Max Pain is nudging toward 295.

 

[Dreadnought]

This is the method by which they are connecting the non-real-time (vector) and real-time data (bag of points). Only a very few points at critical places are turned into vectors and that will expand to all points for single vector stack. Not sure if they are still approaching it the same way now, but it does appear they are working on how to do this more efficiently/effectively. So the measure will be how much new ground truth upcoming segment data they are able to take in (the results will be...for Chucks' turn at least, at first, more consistently doing the right thing) and granted that is a tough turn, but it needs to handle it at 99.9999% (so only fail once every 1,000,000 times) and if he does it 10 times it needs to be essentially perfect.

How does this fit to the Occupancy Networks that Ashok described in his WAD keynote? My ML amateur interpretation is that they only rely on real-time data and transform all video streams into 3D + time space. If the YouTube link works with timestamp, it starts at 18:00 where debug output nicely illustrates an unprotected turn.
I am honestly trying to understand where Tesla stands from a S/W architecture point of view as FSD is the big unknown w/r/to valuation. Therefore, I consider this topic highly relevant for an investors thread, despite the technical nature and I appreciate your unique perspective.

 

[Usain]

But the bad news is, if humans were smart good, we would have taken more action sooner, and we would not have a certain portion of the population hell bent on preventing any progress.

The reason we did not take action sooner is greed.

 

[Stretch2727]

Stellantis is doomed. The CEO wants 30 years lead time to make sure the grid and charging infrastructure is in place before starting to work on EVs.
Is this the competition that is coming?

Sequential thinking, no vision of what the future could bring.

This would be like saying in 2007 we can't sell smart phones until we get 5G infrastructure.

Leave him as CEO so they can continue to pay millions to Tesla for regulatory credits.

 

[ZsoZso]

Humans have not yet found the best and most efficient solution for anything. Lots of improvements for solar wind, batteries and electric motors are in the pipeline, and in some areas people, have only recently started looking under the rocks.

So the quality and efficiency of the very best solutions we can find, might help us.

We do not need the "most efficient" solutions to fix climate change. The technologies we currently have (EVs, wind, solar, batteries etc) are already good enough both in terms of efficiency and cost to replace fossil fuel burning. The only thing missing is will power of the people. A large swath of the population still does not believe we need to make the change and that is the big problem. Another significant portion does believes the need, but still unwilling to change, because it is more convenient to sit in the existing fossil burning car and heat the house with the existing fossil burning system rather than invest some time and money to change (even if that investment would pay off in a very reasonable time-frame).

 

[TheTalkingMule]

We do not need the "most efficient" solutions to fix climate change. The technologies we currently have (EVs, wind, solar, batteries etc) are already good enough both in terms of efficiency and cost to replace fossil fuel burning. The only thing missing is will power of the people. A large swath of the population still does not believe we need to make the change and that is the big problem. Another significant portion does believes the need, but still unwilling to change, because it is more convenient to sit in the existing fossil burning car and heat the house with the existing fossil burning system rather than invest some time and money to change (even if that investment would pay off in a very reasonable time-frame).

I've found it's not "the people" on any side of the issue that are the problem. People of all kinds want a sustaiendrgy system built on renewables. That vision has about 75% support nationwide.

The problem is corruption. Investor owned utilities and legacy fossil interests own our state legislatures and a good chunk of the federal govt.

The source of most human wealth is fossil fuel based energy, these entities will sabotage sustainability to their last breath.

 

[JoRoMo]

I've found it's not "the people" on any side of the issue that are the problem. People of all kinds want a sustaiendrgy system built on renewables. That vision has about 75% support nationwide.

The problem is corruption. Investor owned utilities and legacy fossil interests own our state legislatures and a good chunk of the federal govt.

The source of most human wealth is fossil fuel based energy, these entities will sabotage sustainability to their last breath.

For «the people» I think «Better and Cheaper» is the formula in the longer term - I am afraid 75% do not even have an opinion beyond that.

 

[unk45]

Stellantis is doomed. The CEO wants 30 years lead time to make sure the grid and charging infrastructure is in place before starting to work on EVs.

Is this the competition that is coming?

Stellantis is doomed. The CEO wants 30 years lead time to make sure the grid and charging infrastructure is in place before starting to work on EVs.

Is this the competition that is coming?

Listening to Mr. Tavares carefully I find it odd that this indicates Stellantis is doomed. Carlos Tavares has a long standing habit of thinking clearly. That is how he's been successful at managing profitable operations for some companies that have had huge losses for decades. Think Fiat, Chrysler, Opel.

Rationally his descriptions of infrastructure is both rational and practical.
1. That clean energy production and distribution is essential is hardly something with which we would disagree. He sees Germany retreating to coal. Brazil retreating to fossil fuels. The US dirty coal:
joe-manchin-senator-millions-coal-grant-town-west-virginia
Then think of India, nearly all of Africa, South American and Asia.
Is Tavares myopic to declare that logically, clean power should be first?
2. As for charging infrastructure. Even North America, Western Europe and China have gigantic deficiencies in charging infrastructure. Is he wrong about that one?
3. As for affordable BEV for the world, is he incorrect? Right now Stellantis sells the most affordable mainstream BEV's from Fiat 500, Peugeot e208 to Ram ProMaster and a few dozen more:

Amazon makes a deal with Stellantis to buy electric Ram ProMaster delivery vans in 2023

Amazon will also put its software in “millions” of vehicles.

www.theverge.com

4. He says Stellantis is determined to meet the goals already established and continue to do so. Their concentration on BEV delivery trucks is various sizes.
Then there are the actual results to date:

Stellantis achieves record first half 2022 earnings, BEV sales climb nearly 50% YOY

One of the largest global automakers, Stellantis, posted its first-half earnings for 2022. Stellantis’s electrification strategy is paying off so...

electrek.co

All that said, Carlos Tavares is not a visionary. He's practical, deliberate and highly successful in saving large manufacturers from ruin. To equate him with idiots and fools, climate deniers and perry bureaucrats is not correct.

Please listen carefully. He's pleading for clean energy and charging infrastructure.

Keep also in mind that their largest single global market share is in Brazil. They sell several BEV's here, but there are few buyers. They're pushing anyway, as they are also doing in other less electrified markets, none of which have anything Tesla yet, nor any large-scale clean energy.

How was he wrong? Factually.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

For «the people» I think «Better and Cheaper» is the formula in the longer term - I am afraid 75% do not even have an opinion beyond that.

If you're saying people just want things better and cheaper, then that's a wonderful coincidence. Renewables based sustainability is far better and FAR cheaper than the fossil status quo.

I've been to a million and one residential solar info sessions over the last 10 years. Every one of them has a handful of very conservative males who just want to know the price and terms. They're not wrong to want those things and it doesn't hurt the mission to be focused on those things.

I would argue we're actually gonna need that kind of attitude, from the marketplace and govt, in order to truly scale.

 

[Artful Dodger]

How was he wrong? Factually.

He is wrong in way the chicken lays the egg. And how we have known we need more eggs for at least 50 years (since the Arab Oil embargoes of the 70s). And how he kicks the egg/can down the road, so that the next generation has to clean up an even bigger mess.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1571846222582882306

NO ONE could have seen this coming....except us at TMC