Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[M|S|M MYP]

Well, well, well:

Tesla Giga Berlin Battery Factory Is Moving Forward Despite Misleading Reports

Tesla's battery factory in Giga Berlin is making excellent progress and is well on its way to starting production. The German team is full ahead, despite misleading local news reports based on unnamed sources.

www.tesmanian.com

As always, it is "people familiar with the situation" so who knows what to believe.

 

[petit_bateau]

I think what you wrote may be 100% on target. I considered it myself wondering where Tesla can devote resources for maximum returns. Tesla claimed no shortage of batteries for the first time in their history a few months ago. Slow walking Berlin and going nuts with Austin makes sense for energy and logistics. Europe needs some visibility for certain in regards to industry and right priced energy.

It might be either or both of the two factors (wanting to concentrate troubleshooting efforts; wanting to sidestep a potential energy issue) or it might be other factors; or the media reports could be complete nonsense. I guess we'll find out one day. In the meantime I personally trust Tesla management to collectively make sensible decisions.

You mean the building that doesn't currently build anything and for which there's no plan have it build anything in the future?

I think your concern that an empty building may not have enough power 2.5 months from now is a bit irrational.

There are plenty of battery cells available.

I think you are braying at the wrong tree.
- I was simply correcting any misunderstandings regarding the real energy situation in Europe (i.e. gas, and electricity derived from gas, etc) and pointing out that this may be playing a role in Tesla decision making. Whether it is I do not know. But it may be.
- I'm already aware and very happy to know there are lots of cells, that makes me a tadge more relaxed regarding the 4680 ramp which I also pay attention to. I wish 4680 ramp were going faster for all sorts of reasons but that is not the point.
- The Berlin building in question has been marked on the plans as being for cell manufacture and no-one seems to have queried it before, but if you know differently please enlighten us.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Just got paid...so 29 more shares of $TSLA @$207.80 secured. Probably will not be the bottom but im sticking to my guns on buying when i have $$ available.

Good luck to the longs!

 

[Discoducky]

No. Look at the market in general, and the EV sector specifically. It's a blood bath today.

I was wondering the reason for the turnaround, but seems GB got it right...

https://twitter.com/x/status/1580927768631472128

 

[bkp_duke]

I assume they are thinking the same thing we thought in November 2022.

Time travel . . . and you won't even share when we bounce?

 

[elasalle]

I was wondering the reason for the turnaround, but seems GB got it right...

https://twitter.com/x/status/1580927768631472128

So they supersede the FED CPI

 

[elasalle]

So to make it short- is Elon selling?

IIRC, it was mentioned he cannot sell this close to earnings ... so NO.

 

[Todd Burch]

Remember, earnings are coming...

(Dang I love Shawshank Redemption).

 

[Eugene Ash]

Just got paid...so 29 more shares of $TSLA @$207.80 secured. Probably will not be the bottom but im sticking to my guns on buying when i have $$ available.

Good luck to the longs!

+ 50 too. The couch is spotless now, though

 

[Zero CO2]

Remember, earnings are coming...

View attachment 863868


(Dang I love Shawshank Redemption).

might have to initiate a survey for a new avatar for @Todd Burch the eye ball is getting disturbing to look at

 

[WattsHappening]

+ 50 too. The couch is spotless now, though

I'm reduced to a fold-up plastic chair. 10 more for me at $208.

 

[Max Plaid]

I personally don't want Tesla wasting money buying back shares, I'd prefer they keep it as security or better still deploy it for the Mission

Let's use that cash to get the Model Q out there, the small, affordable Tesla "hot hatch", accelerate the CT or bring the M3/Y prices down a bit when the economy falls apart, how about doubling-down on Semi production to get those heavily-polluting diesels off the road?

The economy is going down the shitter, high-end consumer discretionary will suffer. Will Tesla be immune? I don't know, but I think buying back stock is a idiotic idea right now

 

[Max Plaid]

Interesting theory from Gary Black, would make sense to me and avoid additional share sales by Elon for Twitter purchase.
Any downside?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1580928067773427713

I was thinking that maybe Elon could sell some Space X stock if necessary, that would totally blind-side everyone (except me, of course...)

 

[Max Plaid]

TSLA does the opposite of what I do. I buy shares - it goes down. I sell shares - it goes up.

I'm thinking of starting a Go Fund Me for shares to sell. Anyone interested in donating?

$InverseBornToFly?

 

[Usain]

Say Q3 2022 Earnings Call questions are live: Say

Except for the question on buybacks, the top rated questions look pretty decent this time.

Tesla will not give a straight answer about buybacks, nor should they. So it's a wasted question.

 

[Gigapress]

Keeping a huge, complex factory and its supply chain and completed product distribution operational involves an insane amount of drama and hard work by thousands of people even in the best of times. There are tens of thousands of potential single points of failure that can be total showstoppers and it is a perpetual game of whack-a-mole to fight these problems. Elon says this over and over again and nobody listens. That's why he keeps repeating it.

It seems to me that many people, especially investment bankers who have never worked in operations in their entire careers and stare at spreadsheets all day long, gravely underappreciate how difficult it is to keep production going because they just see the results and not the chaos going on behind the scenes. I sure didn't know how hard manufacturing is until working in it for 7 years.

I think I remember somebody saying "If you don't make stuff, then there is no stuff." We get cash flow if and only if we are making stuff, and that stuff-making operation is a lot more fragile than people might imagine or want to imagine. Mere mortals only have so much control in this world.

The Tesla team has moved mountains with Herculean effort and extreme engineering competence to keep production growth going for the last 4 years despite all the challenges. There is no guarantee whatsoever that this will continue, or that production will continue at all, and I'm willing to bet that they're pretty tired at this point.

 

[Singuy]

Except for the question on buybacks, the top rated questions look pretty decent this time.

Tesla will not give a straight answer about buybacks, nor should they. So it's a wasted question.

No that question is perfect. Would love nothing more than to have Elon completely rejecting it in the short term and have this question leading to a massive sell off as it explodes in shareholder's faces hoping for short term gain.

 

[mongo]

I was thinking that maybe Elon could sell some Space X stock if necessary, that would totally blind-side everyone (except me, of course...)

Not gonna do it...
Elon has more Tesla stock than the total value of SpaceX, plus it's private and harder to trade.

 

[Ogre]

If Tesla has more cash than what they need for operations and a safety net, they should invest any excess cash into SpaceX.

Gives Tesla shareholders exposure to SpaceX which many of us want regardless. Gives SpaceX gets additional operating capital.

Sort on like corporate incest. But without the icky bits and reinforcing recessive traits.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

I personally don't want Tesla wasting money buying back shares, I'd prefer they keep it as security or better still deploy it for the Mission

Let's use that cash to get the Model Q out there, the small, affordable Tesla "hot hatch", accelerate the CT or bring the M3/Y prices down a bit when the economy falls apart, how about doubling-down on Semi production to get those heavily-polluting diesels off the road?

The economy is going down the shitter, high-end consumer discretionary will suffer. Will Tesla be immune? I don't know, but I think buying back stock is a idiotic idea right now

This type of post really illustrates what I was saying in my previous post

Model Q - No amount of cash will speed that up. You're talking planning of logistics/suppliers......hell they don't even have a site picked out for the factory in Shanghai. Even if they sped up the process for picking the site, it would be 2 quarters before construction of the Gigafactory would have any material impact to FCF. Tesla was able to build two Gigafactories at the SAME TIME as well as pay down debt by 1.5-2 billion PER QUARTER and STILL had positive FCF. That was while Tesla only had 2 Gigafactories in Operation. Now, Tesla will have 4 Gigafactories in operation. So even if they were building 2 new Gigafactories starting in Q1 2023, the impact on FCF would be 50% less the impact Berlin/Austin had during their construction. Jesus I don't get why this is so hard to get.

Accelerate the CT - Cash isn't going to speed that up one bit. Not a single bit. Again, planning for the Cybertruck production ramp has been set in stone for well over a year. Tesla has supplier contracts already set up. There's zero way to speed up the Cybertruck production ramp beyond what's already been planned. Besides, the vast majority of the cash expenditures associated with the Cybertruck have already been realized which was the site/factory construction, purchasing the equipment, etc....The amount of cash needed to get Cybertruck into production at this stage compared to getting to this stage is tiny in relation.

Semi - Same as Cybertruck. It's like people think supplies/parts just grow on trees

Lower 3/Y prices - Zero purpose on doing this unless organic demand starts to materially trail production rate.........But even then it's a pointless thing to call out because lower prices would affect earnings negatively while having little effect on cash flow.