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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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Well, they are not hand building 95 a month so it's all about for how long they have been stockpiling them in Nevada.

I'm guessing around 10 made per month now and less than 25 delivered to Pepsico on Dec 1. Tesla probably wants to keep a few for themselves as well.

There won't be any significant volume until they have a regular production line setup which seems unlikely for the next six months or so.
That’s the question I had. Is Tesla going to be the main Semi customer for a while? Cost savings vs sales margins, I guess.
 
Yes, and switching to lithium for the aux battery. Even that reduces cost and weight. Just 100-200lbs makes a big difference, and further saves in battery for the same range. I think Tesla could build a model 3 like car for $28k (not selling price) in the end.

They already switched to Lithium in the Aux battery, about 12-18 months ago, even in the Model 3.
 
I rarely share stuff like this about other EVs because sharing any sort of EV FUD can be a bit hypocritical but I think this underscores the advantage Tesla has with vertical integration of charging network and vehicle. Speculation that the charger provided more juice than requested and this isn't an isolated incident.
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Then they better geofence it to locations where it never rains or snows!
View attachment 879103
This was taken yesterday in light rain, pretty decent visibility, lane markings perfectly visible.
Yet, FSD was unavailable, because "poor weather detected".
What would it say in a blizzard ???

FSD can currently do the same routes that Cruise and Waymo are running. If autopilot works in the rain why would FSD not work? It seems that they are being extra careful. I have driven my car on some bad storms on AP. I have seen that same message before on FSD.
 
Would word processing and spreadsheet editing really work on in the Internet before AJAX and cloud infrastructure get scaled in the 2010's? Here's something I learned yesterday:

"You might have thought that if you wanted to have a computer that was a word processor, you’d buy a word processing computer. You want to have a spreadsheet computer, you’d buy a spreadsheet computer. But the big fact that emerged in the 1920s and 1930s is that you can have a single sort of hardware object. I mean, it wasn’t put to practice until the 1940s and ’50s, but it was, you can have the single hardware object that can just be programmed to be a word processor, be a spreadsheet, whatever."

- Stephen Wolfram - The Tim Ferriss Show Transcripts: Stephen Wolfram — Personal Productivity Systems, Richard Feynman Stories, Computational Thinking as a Superpower, Perceiving a Branching Universe, and The Ruliad… The Biggest Object in Metascience (#637) - The Blog of Author Tim Ferriss
BTW, this is also a great explanation for why the Tesla bot will be wildly successful. The general purpose computer is to specialized computers as the humanoid robot is to specialized robots.

The humanoid robot will never be as good at a task as a specialized robot could be. But the humanoid robot can be mass produced at low cost and be taught to do almost any menial task a human can do. General purpose devices displace specialized devices because of cost.
 
Yeah right, best way to void a Tesla powertrain warranty is to bring it to a Buick dealership. But if this is about fixing a flat tire then why is this even an article?
Exactly. This was a GM Exec (Mark Ruess) looking for a talking point. If you do the math 11,000 repairs over 2 years works out to about 2 repairs per year per dealer. Probably a few people taking advantage of a local shop to repair/replace or rotate tires.

They probably repaired 500K Fords in the same time but they are not talking about it.
 
FSD can currently do the same routes that Cruise and Waymo are running. If autopilot works in the rain why would FSD not work? It seems that they are being extra careful. I have driven my car on some bad storms on AP. I have seen that same message before on FSD.
My understanding is Cruise and Waymo since they use Lidar they cant be used in weather where Lidar fails. My understanding is Lidar wont work in the snow or rain. Am I wrong?
 
Exactly. This was a GM Exec (Mark Ruess) looking for a talking point. If you do the math 11,000 repairs over 2 years works out to about 2 repairs per year per dealer. Probably a few people taking advantage of a local shop to repair/replace or rotate tires.

They probably repaired 500K Fords in the same time but they are not talking about it.
In my experience it is Costco that is taking away Tesla service business. I know someone that has only had tires replaced on 3 Tesla's at Costco.



I am the person
 
If autopilot works in the rain why would FSD not work?
I'd guess they haven't prioritized non-optimal visual conditions and thus, don't want the training data. With dry conditions they don't have to worry about losing traction. I hope they can detect snow however; talk about losing traction.
 
Tesla makes very little on tires and service for them. They are perfectly happy for Costco to take that business.
I also have used only Costco for our tires; regardless, Tesla at least used to have as its business model not to have Service as a profit center. Now I'm not remembering if that officially has changed.
 
I also have used only Costco for our tires; regardless, Tesla at least used to have as its business model not to have Service as a profit center. Now I'm not remembering if that officially has changed.

The financials track with this. While "service" is technically profitable in their reports, it's a bit muddled because I believe CPO sales are included in that. @The Accountant could probably clarify that.
 
.40/kWh isn’t actually all that high. Here in California, our peak pricing is around .58/kWh the last time I checked. Also our nat gas prices are also going up since we are selling so much to Europe now.
Your post is informing and a great segue into a larger discussion that absolutely quantifies the immense need for the Tesla VPP, and that discussion sheds a little more light on one more reason why states are slow to adopt VPP, and why one Whale investor in particular is slow to invest in Tesla. Casting a wider net your response could easily read:

".40/kWh is high. Here in California, our peak pricing is unnecessarily expensive at around .58/kWh"

California could/should have MUCH lower energy prices already, and was moving in that direction quickly under the previous administration. But PG&E protectionism and intentionally slowing mass adoption of solar & a distributed grid by the current CA administration combined with some unusually large outside influences IMO has prevented that. In a time frame that could greatly accelerate any current 'goals', CA alone could produce enough power with solar, wind, and storage to meet all of its needs and export surplus power to the Pacific Northwest on a grid that many of us Electrical Rate Payers paid to have upsized after the Enron crisis. The goal of upsizing after the Enron crash was to allow excess NW hydropower to be sent to CA at a time that Portland and Seattle areas had a much lower population (surplus hydroelectricity on the grid). And at the time, those planning on making more money from NW hydro never conceived that the day would come so quickly when the NW needed additional power after they had created a grid capable of carrying that power from CA and the Southwest. Oh, the irony...............that Grid managers didn't plan for the future...........and they didn't even stop to think that electricity can be sent either direction on the same grid. And yet here we are, at a time when CA and the Southwest could be ramping to meet their needs and to allow Oregon and Washington to reduce/eliminate the use of PacifiCorp Natural Gas power by importing solar and wind while more efficiently utilizing their hydroelectric capacity. The game is rigged heavily IMO. There is no reason that CA is paying $0.58/kWh when rural Idaho with the fewest customers per line-mile in America is paying $0.10 on the same connected grid, and parts of Central WA are paying half that amount/kWh.

Its important to remember that it was the current Gov of CA that recommended using Utah Natural Gas power be used to supplement the CA grid after the now-famous $0.019/kWh solar project was awarded outside LA.


And let's remember who has a big stake in Utah's power grid:

Buffett grabs Utah's power

And it was Gov Jay Inslee of WA that wrote an open letter to the San Francisco Chronical essentially telling CA not to disrupt the Western Grid by putting too much cheap solar on it because that would disrupt profitability for NW hydro generators (that's my interpretation having more than a little insight to Northwest Federal hydro generation costs and operations, and I found this particularly disturbing):



And when NW hydro and wind is insufficient to supply all of the NW's needs, back-up and peaker-power comes primarily from Natural Gas despite the NW being connected to the CA and Southwest grid which offers massive solar potential. And let's remember who has a big stake in Pacific Northwest Natural Gas generation:


And even if you weren't already aware from all the exposure @TheTalkingMule had posted in the past, you don't have to look to far to see who is not a fan of residents and small businesses being properly compensated for the solar energy they can put on the grid:


Which is of course amplified in Arizona, where the state could meet all of its energy shortcomings and much of its water supply shortcomings by simply putting solar panels over the Colorado River aqueduct to Phoenix - the Central Arizona project. I discussed that briefly in a previous post - Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

But of course that would more rapidly disrupt AZ's primary generation which is currently coal, and is produced at coal plants owned by you know who (WB) from coal produced by your know who (WB) and delivered in trains owned by you know who (WB).


"Berkshire Hathaway Energy is the largest U.S. power company without a net zero goal"

And of course let's not forget about the proposed hydrogen refueling system for CA and the Pacific NW that goes back to the previous CA administration, and has been a pet project of Mr. Gates for some time.

The original vision of the Green New Deal presented a path towards clean, green energy that would be even cheaper than Central WA energy costs across the entire US, all connected on the same grid with wide-spread distributed grid implementation - and it did so by laying out a TVA-type vision that included distributed grid production and storage by residential and commercial properties. And it gave those generators adequate compensation for their investments in that production. The new IRA will likely create a similar amount of power........maybe more? And it will do so with the same owners of today's grid owning the grid of tomorrow now. And they will do so without the need to adequately compensate small residential and commercial projects for their energy produced. And it will do so with loans for those projects being at the highest interest rates we have seen in a long time.

There is only one way come out on top as a small residential or commercial solar project owner that I am aware of...........and that is to participate in the Tesla VPP. IMO it will be the only way we see energy prices falling below those unnecessarily high levels that @Cosmacelf mentioned. The Tesla VPP will become adopted almost everywhere eventually. And those willing to purchase and install the latest Powerwalls with their projects will then benefit far beyond anyone installing an Enphase, or LG, or other battery system if they remain connected to the grid IMO. Protectionism isn't Red or Blue, and its everywhere. Elon and crew are doing more than just making great products and making the planet more sustainable. They are challenging the current Paradigm at the highest levels. And Tesla must win if we are all to win.
 
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Yeah right, best way to void a Tesla powertrain warranty is to bring it to a Buick dealership. But if this is about fixing a flat tire then why is this even an article?

This article took a claim by GM that they had "serviced" thousands of Tesla's and switched it around to suggest it meant GM had "repaired" thousands of Tesla. The vast majority of these will be auction purchases of used cars to sell on the lot. They are always "serviced" before they are sold, no matter how pristine they were when purchased. The dead giveaway that the author doesn't know what they are talking about and wrote the hit piece simply to smear Tesla was this ignorant statement:

And, presumably, GM knows how Tesla arranges its battery cells for cooling and can reassemble them.

Not even Tesla reassembles battery packs. The author seems blissfully unaware that Tesla battery packs are designed to be so reliable it doesn't make sense to take them apart and reassemble them. If they have a fatal defect, they just install a new pack and grind up the old one to be used to create more battery raw materials. But it's good to know that GM "presumably" knows how to take apart battery packs and reassemble them. That's why they are the leader in EV's! /s

These journalists just make this crap up out of thin air.
 
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FSD can currently do the same routes that Cruise and Waymo are running. If autopilot works in the rain why would FSD not work? It seems that they are being extra careful. I have driven my car on some bad storms on AP. I have seen that same message before on FSD.

Because AP just needs the forward cameras to work-- which there's 3 of, and they sit behind a windshield, and have wipers to clear that windshield.

FSD needs the side and rear cameras for things like lane changes, visibility at intersections to cross traffic, etc.... and none of the side or rear cameras have duplicates or anything to clear them being obscured by water or dirt.

Likewise even NoA sometimes turns itself off in moderate rain for the same reasons FSDb can. But AP just keeps working-- because it needs a lot less input to work safely.


But reminder there's a whole forum where this stuff gets discussed in detail:

 
This article took a claim by GM that they had "serviced" thousands of Tesla's and switched it around to suggest it meant GM had "repaired" thousands of Tesla. The vast majority of these will be auction purchases of used cars to sell on the lot. They are always "serviced" before they are sold, no matter how pristine they were when purchased. The dead giveaway that the author doesn't know what they are talking about and wrote the hit piece simply to smear Tesla was this ignorant statement:

And, presumably, GM knows how Tesla arranges its battery cells for cooling and can reassemble them.

Not even Tesla reassembles battery packs. The author seems blissfully unaware that Tesla battery packs are designed to be so reliable it doesn't make sense to take them apart and reassemble them. If they have a fatal defect, they just install a new pack and grind up the old one to be used to create more battery raw materials. But it's good to know that GM "presumably" knows how to do this. That's why they are the leader in EV's! /s

These journalists just make this crap up out of thin air.
That quote is funny on several levels that I really did laugh out loud when I read it. What non sense.
 
Because AP just needs the forward cameras to work-- which there's 3 of, and they sit behind a windshield, and have wipers to clear that windshield.

FSD needs the side and rear cameras for things like lane changes, visibility at intersections to cross traffic, etc.... and none of the side or rear cameras have duplicates or anything to clear them being obscured by water or dirt.

Likewise even NoA sometimes turns itself off in moderate rain for the same reasons FSDb can. But AP just keeps working-- because it needs a lot less input to work safely.


But reminder there's a whole forum where this stuff gets discussed in detail:


I should have written EAP because in changes lanes and still works at least from experience during heavy rain.