Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[JusRelax]

OR, he knows bad news is coming and he sold before said negativity drops the share price even lower.

Both options are possible, the truth is we have no idea WHY he sold now, at what seems like the worst possible time to do so. We can only speculate until time reveals the answers to us.

Auctioning off twitter espresso machines, refrigerators, @ signs, etc. and discussions on changing twitter's debt to margin loans recently make me think it's more likely he sold because he had to, not because he believed there's incoming bad news.

14 Must Have Items From Twitter's Office Supply Fire Sale

Get yourself a genuine giant blue bird or even a hand-crank deli slicer, or you could perhaps snag a chair that might have seated a former Tweep.

gizmodo.com

Elon Musk’s Bankers Consider Tesla Margin Loans to Cut Risky Twitter Debt

Elon Musk’s bankers are considering replacing some of the high-interest debt he layered on Twitter Inc. with new margin loans backed by Tesla Inc. stock that he’d be personally responsible for re-paying, according to people with knowledge of the matter.

www.bloomberg.com

 

[strago13]

I don’t know the specifics of the option package of Tesla employees, but you can typically only exercise those options after several years. And you can typically hold those options very long, like 10 years (at least that’s how it is in Europe). So I assume no Tesla employee would be able to exercise options granted in the 2020-2022 period. And older options are very deep in the money.

In tech, in the us, typically you get a smaller base salary, annual bonus and RSUs that begin vesting after 1 year over a 4 year period. Most employees would get say 100k in stock at x strike price and those would vest quarterly equally over 4 years. Make sense? It’s complicated but if you joined when the stock was high you own a bunch of underwater shares and your comp isn’t what you signed up for.

 

[Singuy]

Didn't we hear rumors of Elon trying to refinance his high interest loans using margin loans? What is the typical collateral needed to do something like that?

 

[tslagreen]

OR, he knows bad news is coming and he sold before said negativity drops the share price even lower.

Both options are possible, the truth is we have no idea WHY he sold now, at what seems like the worst possible time to do so. We can only speculate until time reveals the answers to us.

Fair question. Elon is not on my Christmas card list this year, but I don't think he would sell because he is getting ahead of bad news. Still possible, however. I think selling is related to the Blue Bird and the hefty interest rate he had to pay for financing due to increasing interest rates despite the fact that some on this board think he would not be motivated by the same.

 

[Mengy]

Fair question. Elon is not on my Christmas card list this year, but I don't think he would sell because he is getting ahead of bad news. Still possible, however. I think selling is related to the Blue Bird and the hefty interest rate he had to pay for financing due to increasing interest rates despite the fact that some on this board think he would not be motivated by the same.

I think this is the most likely scenario as well. Sadly we just don't know for sure, and that uncertainty is going to hurt TSLA in the short term.

We'll likely drop even lower today, and it pains me to say it but I think Chicken's prediction of ~$140 is going to ultimately come true.

 

[juanmedina]

This is perfect:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1603237373407395840

 

[Nolimits]

Can anyone explains to me in 1st grade english why Elon have to sell stocks in open market? is that some sort of his moral compass?

I believe I can take this one…



SPACESHiPMaN BadDDD

 

[stealthyc]

Fair question. Elon is not on my Christmas card list this year, but I don't think he would sell because he is getting ahead of bad news. Still possible, however. I think selling is related to the Blue Bird and the hefty interest rate he had to pay for financing due to increasing interest rates despite the fact that some on this board think he would not be motivated by the same.

Unscheduled sales ahead of bad news would be insider trading, no?

 

[traxila]

OR, he knows bad news is coming and he sold before said negativity drops the share price even lower.

Both options are possible, the truth is we have no idea WHY he sold now, at what seems like the worst possible time to do so. We can only speculate until time reveals the answers to us.

No speculation necessary.

EM has gone on record multiple times that there is a bad recession coming.

He sold now because he is not comfortable carrying debt and needed money. He told us this as well.

Like the margin account trader who liquidates to take out dangerous margin so he does not have to waste energy worrying about it, EM sells and damn the price.

What we don’t know is if he is now comfortable. Honestly given everything, EM should have hammered the SP relentlessly months ago so that TWTR was fully funded. Think we would be much higher now, and the financial issues of how much money he needs and more selling would be gone.

 

[traxila]

Unscheduled sales ahead of bad news would be insider trading, no?

If it is company specific, possibly.

Would have to prove that EM sold because Tesla was failing. Don’t see how Q4 will be anything less than tepid, which will not qualify, especially since EM can easily point to TWTR issues for sale.

And honestly, I think Q4 will be a record. By far.

 

[nativewolf]

In tech, in the us, typically you get a smaller base salary, annual bonus and RSUs that begin vesting after 1 year over a 4 year period. Most employees would get say 100k in stock at x strike price and those would vest quarterly equally over 4 years. Make sense? It’s complicated but if you joined when the stock was high you own a bunch of underwater shares and your comp isn’t what you signed up for.

Right and when you compare workers comp at Tesla vs Ford or GM the big difference was a slightly higher comp due to equity. The hourly pay was mostly lower. With options under water you look at hourly vs hourly and Tesla workers begin to look underpaid vs the union employees and sure as heck that's going to cause pro union campaigns. Just more distraction.

To me that's the biggest issue with his share sales, I mean besides the stupidity of the whole thing. His share sales hurt Tesla workers.

 

[dl003]

You done whining?

Ridicule people who buy and hold & defend those who sell. Classy. Whats next? Gonna ask me if I got margin called?

 

[FireMedic]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1603380413455474689

 

[ElectricIAC]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1603380413455474689

That or lithium refinement

 

[NicoV]

In tech, in the us, typically you get a smaller base salary, annual bonus and RSUs that begin vesting after 1 year over a 4 year period. Most employees would get say 100k in stock at x strike price and those would vest quarterly equally over 4 years. Make sense? It’s complicated but if you joined when the stock was high you own a bunch of underwater shares and your comp isn’t what you signed up for.

Thanks! How long can you typically hold those options before they expire?

 

[EverettRuess]

No speculation necessary.

EM has gone on record multiple times that there is a bad recession coming.

He sold now because he is not comfortable carrying debt and needed money. He told us this as well.

Like the margin account trader who liquidates to take out dangerous margin so he does not have to waste energy worrying about it, EM sells and damn the price.

What we don’t know is if he is now comfortable. Honestly given everything, EM should have hammered the SP relentlessly months ago so that TWTR was fully funded. Think we would be much higher now, and the financial issues of how much money he needs and more selling would be gone.

Just remember Elon buying Twitter has nothing to do with Tesla. It's his money and he can do what he wants. It's not relevant to this board and anyway we don't know much because Elon is playing three D chess.

 

[ElectricIAC]

Just remember Elon buying Twitter has nothing to do with Tesla. It's his money and he can do what he wants. It's not relevant to this board and anyway we don't know much because Elon is playing three D chess.

That’s the spirit!

Say it louder for the haters in the room!

 

[Nocturnal]

Well at least now we know for sure that anytime Elon talks up the stock’s value or talks about the dangers of margin he is warning us.

Net present value of Tesla is less than the other thing I suppose.

It’s nice to have a reason for the recent drop at least. Hopefully the market realizes that it’s because he made the world’s worst deal in buying vs worries about Tesla itself. Not holding my breathe.

 

[InDaClub]

After the much-discussed visit of Tesla’s CEO Elon Musk to the state of Nuevo León in October, Tesla is set to announce its first vehicle plant in Mexico by January of next year, the news platform Milenio reported on Tuesday.

“Tesla will arrive in Santa Catarina [Nuevo León]. The investment will be finalized in the coming weeks and announced after year end,” read the document that Milenio reviewed. The remarks are in line with hints dropped by Nuevo León’s governor earlier this month; Governor Samuel García said that “historic” investments — supposedly among the largest in the state’s history — would be coming to Nuevo León soon.

The plant, which according to Milenio will assemble cargo trucks, would be built in a strategic quadrant in the municipality of Santa Catarina, near kilometer 51 of the Monterrey-Saltillo highway and 38 minutes away from downtown Monterrey, Nuevo León.

Tesla to announce Nuevo León factory in January 2023, Milenio reports

Tesla is preparing to announce plans for its first vehicle manufacturing plant in Mexico, according to information obtained by Milenio.

mexiconewsdaily.com

 

[traxila]

Just remember Elon buying Twitter has nothing to do with Tesla. It's his money and he can do what he wants. It's not relevant to this board and anyway we don't know much because Elon is playing three D chess.

We are discussing a TSLA SP in free fall for weeks. Of course it is relevant as this is the reason he is selling. No one said that he cannot do what he wants. At least not me.