Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Artful Dodger]

A M3 rear wheel drive can be had for 36.5 K after tax credit.

Notice the specific language on the web page that "this may be reduced after March 2023"? That's likely due to the materials sourcing requirements for the LFP battery in SR+ so get'em while there're hot! Still, and $3,750 to price afterward and it's still a great deal (until Tesla can switch battery sourcing to qualify).

 

[thx1139]

No, options are not excluded. From Tesla:

View attachment 895223

Accessories are excluded, like for example the UMC.

But I'm pretty sure that the wheels and paint are "physically attached to the vehicle" at the time of delivery.

Interesting it says "Excudes software features" that implies to me that FSD wouldnt count against. I dont think that is correct. People should be careful and add after delivery.

 

[Nocturnal]

Notice the specific language on the web page that "this may be reduced after March 2023"? That's likely due to the materials sourcing requirements for the LFP battery in SR+ so get'em while there're hot! Still, and $3,750 to price afterward and it's still a great deal (until Tesla can switch battery sourcing to qualify).

What a mess they made of this bill. The amount of overhead that will be required to track every manufacturer and decide "ok car produced on X date qualifies, but X plus 2 days doesn't, but X date + 60 days does qualify because of a material switch" will be massive.

 

[MrMoo]

How much higher? Because asp q1 2022 vs q3 2022, 3/y only went up 1k. This why extrapolating using peak prices is incorrect especially when Tesla was working through a year long backlog..you know, how people paid 2021 prices taking deliveries q3 2022.....

Well lets go with what you said, 1k higher. Then due to headwinds Q1 2022 vs Q3 2022 gross margin fell 5% even with the price increase.

Lets rewind and remove those headwinds and before Giga factories opened up. I'll give you your 32% Auto margins, which was the highest in Teslas history.

On a 60k car 28% vs 32% is a couple of thousand dollars. Well we just discounted 13000 dollars. To get the same amount of profit our auto margins need to be 37% from 32%. So we need to rewind commodities, dollar, giga factories, wage increases and then squeeze another 5% out from that.

 

[Electroman]

India’s first solar car debuts at Auto Expo 2023
The 2023 Auto Expo in Greater Noida, Uttar Pradesh, introduced India’s first ‘solar car’ Eva

One door, two seats and the solar charging roof is optional. And unlike Tesla this has Android Auto and Apple Play.

Hmm.. how is this a solar car, when the solar panels are optional and it is charged from the grid?

 

[Nocturnal]

Interesting it says "Excudes software features" that implies to me that FSD wouldnt count against. I dont think that is correct. People should be careful and add after delivery.

Tesla seems confident in this.

 

[FSDtester#1]

Weird to me that the Model Y was lowered to $52,990 rather than $54,990. I guess it allows people to pick a color and still be under the $55K cap.

This is going to put a load of hurt on competitors.

Not only that but I bet the reason they didn't go straight to $54,990 is because when the inevitable backlog develops, they have some room to raise the price to that number in the coming months. It also gives some time to see what may change with the IRA.

 

[scaesare]

Don’t think amount withheld makes any difference, nor whether you get a refund. IANAA, bit I think it only relates to Adjusted Gross Income.

I believe @mongo was simply advising on a way to not have to wait until yr end for your tax credit money, and put it to work for you earlier. I don't believe he was suggesting that adjusting withholdings made any difference on credit eligibility.

That having been said, are there any strategies for the income limit? If you exceed the AGI cap, is leasing an option?

 

[madodel]

... also 3 wheels?

Is that why the back end looks whompy? Tall, narrow and only 3 wheels. How does it not fall over? Can we get NHTSA to investigate this? But I'm sure it doesn't have panel gaps so all is probably OK.

 

[Dreadnought]

Deal

Perhaps you might want to agree on the reference date to determine the cash equivalent of the TSLA share. Today's closing price may substantially differ from the one at opening after Q1 earnings.

I usually don't comment on short term price action but was quite surprised to find that TSLA so far holding up better than GM and F. Of course, any rational investor would immmediately put the proceeds of any F or GM share sold in TSLA but I still found some consolation when I noticed.

 

[bkp_duke]

Anyone else pick up that . . . this will probably "unwind the wave" in a big way for Q1 ?

 

[Webeevdrivers]

I can’t help but think this is going to put a lot more Tesla cars on the road in North America. That and Cybertruck next year. I have mixed feelings on Elons plans to open the supercharger network to other manufacturers. New supercharger installations are barely keeping up now. Depending how they do it it could cause some serious overcrowding issues.

And speaking of that, still no word on how they’ll do it. Modify existing v1, V2 and V3’s or only V4’s will be compatible.

Anyway, I think these new prices are going to put pressure on the supercharger network.

Jmho.

 

[MP3Mike]

Thanks for the image, back to my point. You'll see over 4 quarters the gross margin only really swung 5% from top to bottom. I find it hard to believe that economies of scale, giga factories getting over the ramp period and drops in commodity prices is going to lead to double or triple that 5% swing.

Maybe you are forgetting that on the Q2 call Zach said this:

They were still selling cars at the old price, and hadn't fully gotten in to the new higher prices.

And in Q1 2022:

So the Q1 and Q2 margins were still heavily based on old lower prices, and the margins were still excellent.

 

[bkp_duke]

Perhaps you might want to agree on the reference date to determine the cash equivalent of the TSLA share. Today's closing price may substantially differ from the one at opening after Q1 earnings.

I usually don't comment on short term price action but was quite surprised to find that TSLA so far holding up better than GM and F. Of course, any rational investor would immmediately put the proceeds of any F or GM share sold in TSLA but I still found some consolation when I noticed.

Doesn't really matter to me, we can take today's closing price at 4 PM EST.

 

[Singuy]

Well lets go with what you said, 1k higher. Then due to headwinds Q1 2022 vs Q3 2022 gross margin fell 5% even with the price increase.

Lets rewind and remove those headwinds and before Giga factories opened up. I'll give you your 32% Auto margins, which was the highest in Teslas history.

On a 60k car 28% vs 32% is a couple of thousand dollars. Well we just discounted 13000 dollars. To get the same amount of profit our auto margins need to be 37% from 32%. So we need to rewind commodities, dollar, giga factories, wage increases and then squeeze another 5% out from that.

Again you are not reading what people are writing. The majority of cars delivered in q3 2022 were paid for in 2021, when model Y was 53k. In fact model Y was 53k q1 2022 as well. All the "60k" price hike happened after q1 2022 but Tesla didn't sell any with those prices because they were working through year long back logs. People were grandfathered into the price when they put down a deposite a year back.

So basically Tesla is going from 53k asp in q3 2022 to an asp of like 50k q1 2023. Tesla is not going from an asp of 53k to asp of 40k. That doesn't even make sense looking at the mix of prices when the cheapest sr+ is still 43k.

 

[Artful Dodger]

What a mess they made of this bill. The amount of overhead that will be required to track every manufacturer and decide "ok car produced on X date qualifies, but X plus 2 days doesn't, but X date + 60 days does qualify because of a material switch" will be massive.

Lobbyist's are masters at creating doubt. No doubt their fingerprints are all over the strategic design of this bill.

What they didn't expect was for Tesla to be PROFITABLE at this price level, and that the retail price cuts would LOCK OUT almost ever ICE CAR on the U.S. market.

When Tesla opens it's own LFP cathode materials plant in the U.S.A. it'll be end game.

Elon, tip of the hat. I salute you.

Cheers to the Longs!

 

[PokerFJÆS]

One added benefit of a price cut as dramatic as this one is that it helps dispel the idea of runaway inflation. Hopefully the Fed takes notice.

 

[madodel]

Hmm.. how is this a solar car, when the solar panels are optional and its charged from the grid?

Articles on it all claim its a solar car. I guess it's "Solar capable". I've seen endless posts from people wondering why Tesla doesn't put solar on the roof of their cars. Saw this. It might be a hit in India, but looks dangerous to me.

 

[Olle]

Finally the website mentions the $7500 tax credit although I am puzzled why they dont mention it in the potential savings popup. Still it is there and now people that dont follow legislation and looking at a Model 3 or Model Y will see it. I am surprised by the amount of some of the cuts. Weird to me that the Model Y was lowered to $52,990 rather than $54,990. I guess it allows people to pick a color and still be under the $55K cap.

This is going to put a load of hurt on competitors.

"Competition is was coming"

 

[MartinAustin]

Lobbyist's are masters at creating doubt. No doubt their fingerprints are all over the strategic design of this bill.

What they didn't expect was for Tesla to be PROFITABLE at this price level, and that the retail price cuts would LOCK OUT almost ever ICE CAR on the U.S. market.

When Tesla opens it's own LFP cathode materials plant in the U.S.A. it'll be end game.

Elon, tip of the hat. I salute you.

Cheers to the Longs!

Lobbyists this morning are like "oh, F###"