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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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another quick thought: a wise investor knows when to take technical stuff and throw it out the window: in my personal opinion, this is one of those times. TSLA fundamentals are so extremely strong and it is in a definitive winner takes all position that relying on moving averages, resistance, technical levels/indicators etc is likely to lead to making mistakes.
for me, this is time to hold for foreseeable future; $400+ could easily happen by May or June 2023 (not a prediction). but then, i would be extremely cautious in trying to trade this thing because even if i trade and increase my position by 10 to 20% tops by savvy trading in a few months, one wrong move and i could be out of a stock likely to hit $1500-$1600+ by 2025-2026 and who knows how many multiples of that in 10 years
i like choosing my regrets: i'd rather kick myself for not trading TSLA and have less # shares vs making a wrong move and losing my position for good
did anyone really expect TSLA to go up 33% in single week, i sure did not (although, to be fair, i had a suspicion)
oh! good luck timing day to day stuff like figuring out if TSLA could rise 11% on friday after a 10% Thursday move
impossible to time short term on a consistent basis
i can much easier predict that a train hurtling down the tracks headed toward me will at some point hit me if i am stupid enough to remain standing on tracks, why try to tempt fate by attempting to time it to closest micro-second!
does not preclude some highly selective market timing when it is clear as daylight- that time is not now
my biggest task in 2023-2025/2026 time frame is not to outsmart myself and lose sight of forest for trees
as always, never any financial advice

PS: if i had to make a guess, next great potential trading opportunity in TSLA may not happen until Elon sells in second half of 2024/early or later 2025
does not mean that i will not keep my eyes open, but my default mode is do nothing until Elon tells me what to do
 
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Good to see some euphoria back on the forum. Best not to get too carried away though. If we're up 10+% at close on Monday, then it's ok to leverage up. Jk, be sensible. I know it's tempting to chase that portfolio balance we had a year ago.
We don't have to chase last year's balance; it'll come to us if we just sit tight.......
 
for me, this is time to hold for foreseeable future; $400+ could easily happen by May or June 2023 (not a prediction).

I think that's very unlikely given this macro environment. We would need a PE about 90-100 to get back up around $400 (estimated) by mid this year, and I don't see that happening until the Fed reverses course and starts dropping rates.

It would be great if we got anywhere near the ATH by mid 2023, I just think that's unrealistic.
 

Excellent take on what “project highland” could be, along with historical perspective. This is represents the extreme scale (master plan 3) needed for next gen platform along with likely role of LFP.
Interesting video...

Like the Cybertruck video "Connecting the Dots" does some smart speculation and it seems likely that parts of it are true.

Model 3 Highland being a "test run" of some Gen3 production concepts seems right.

The speculation that Model 3 Highland will be built at Austin is the part that I would question. However, I would not entirely rule it out.

One concern about 2023 production was any shutdown of Fremont or Shanghai for Model 3 Highland impacting on production numbers.

If Model 3 Highland is using a structural 4680 battery pack, front and rear castings and has 70% of the other parts in common with a Model Y, making it at Austin doesn't seem impossible.

I guess the limitations would be space and workers at Austin?

Ramping 3 vehicles, a cathode plant and battery production at the same factory at the same time seems like a tall order, But if different teams are doing different projects in different physical spaces, it might not be too bad.

And a lot of the best Tesla engineering talent may already be spending a lot of time at Austin.

If they sequence the Highland ramp in this order there is minimal disruption and reduced production:- Austin, Fremont, Berlin, Shanghai.

What would make sense is a specialist project team lead by Tom Zhu doing the Highland project at all 4 factories, while Lars continued to run Cybertruck.

We would eventually have 4 factories making a mix of Model 3 and Y and probably being able to vary the mix.

But it is important to remember that the Model 3 Highland cost less to build, and can be lower priced. In a recession, a rapid ramp of a lower priced Model isn't a bad option.
 
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Weekend OT. I am currently watching this youtube video of conversation between Hugh Hendy and Mark Spiegel. I did not know who Hugh was and he is niether a bull nor bear on Tesla. I found it entertaining to watch Mark being roasted by another short seller for being emotional.

I wonder how much wealth is being generated in retail, since the company's been public, for both sides if you equate them together. Then, compare to any other publicly traded company on the planet...in all of the market's history.
 
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Too late to get into TSLA right now? Feel like I missed the boat with this run up. I need a few days for settled cash to be available and I'm a little worried that I will have really missed my opportunity by late next week.
Missed the boat?!? Girl, summa us have visited over $400 with this stock. You haven’t missed the boat…at $170 it’s still a submarine barely above crush depth.
 
I think that's very unlikely given this macro environment. We would need a PE about 90-100 to get back up around $400 (estimated) by mid this year, and I don't see that happening until the Fed reverses course and starts dropping rates.

It would be great if we got anywhere near the ATH by mid 2023, I just think that's unrealistic.
I think it’s unlikely too but yet AMZN has a P/E of 94 in this environment.
 
I distinctly remember having the conversation with my MIL, who's financial advisor would not let he invest in TSLA, when it was $886 saying "what's the downside in investing in TSLA at this price? I mean it can only go up".

Plus my last two years of getting caught up in the meme stock squeeze and then losing bog in other dumb positions has me a little gun shy right now. Part of me things I can turn 100k into 500k with this and the other is confident i can make that 100k into 25k.
 
Regarding the projected timeline for 20 million cars-- is Tesla "making the machine that makes the machines?" Did not hear that on the recent conference call. Wondering if Tesla is partially manufacturing the robots for car and battery production, vs outsourcing the equipment.

Google "catalogue engineering" Tesla

Tesla can't outsource that which does not yet exist. The goal of 20M was discussed at the last AGM, which is appropriate for a long-term goal. Expect more on March 1st.
 
I distinctly remember having the conversation with my MIL, who's financial advisor would not let he invest in TSLA, when it was $886 saying "what's the downside in investing in TSLA at this price? I mean it can only go up".

Plus my last two years of getting caught up in the meme stock squeeze and then losing bog in other dumb positions has me a little gun shy right now. Part of me things I can turn 100k into 500k with this and the other is confident i can make that 100k into 25k.
You only lose if you sell..if you are short sighted and want to make quick $$, that is gambling and you should go to Vegas. If you have conviction in Tesla and are willing to hold for the next 10 years, you will be rewarded handsomely even if your entry point is at these levels.
 
So if Elon is Obi-Wan, who is Vader?

Uh, Darth Powell, obviously. And Ken Griffin is Jabba the Butt (which memes Elon is Leia) :p

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Good to see some euphoria back on the forum. Best not to get too carried away though. If we're up 10+% at close on Monday, then it's ok to leverage up. Jk, be sensible. I know it's tempting to chase that portfolio balance we had a year ago.

Lever up 2 days before JPow speaks on Feb 1st? Alrighty then...

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Avoid margerine, folks. ;)

Cheers!