Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[AndrewZ]

The details on this are ONLY people that bought Jan 1, 2023 or later. If you bought at the end of 2022, no refund for you.

EDIT - and through until at least when the IRA was passed, Ford buyers would have gotten the old $7500 rebate.

So this could almost be viewed as offsetting the loss of the $7500 rebate.

It'll be interesting to see what happens after March, I can see Tesla and the others offering discounts to offset any loss in the tax credits resulting from the Treasury's guidance.

 

[thx1139]

And...? You think "someone got distracted", and so Tesla did not work as per that plan, or that someone did not publish the plan, or both? Switching from Part 2 to Part 3 of the plan is a lot more complex and huge than switching from Part 1 to Part 2. They can't announce it too soon, nor can they work on it in ways that are obvious to the general public until they are ready to announce.

For example, Master Plan Part 3 will require a whole bunch of new products (and may be services). They can't announce them too soon. And before announcing them, at least some level of design and feasibility work needs to happen in secrecy. Going by what we have heard so far, all this is happening in prep for March 1st announcements.

Never stopped him from posting the plan in the past. The plan isnt how to get there the plan is where they are going. Remember he is the one that said he would be posting it soon.

 

[GOVA]

I am really thinking of giving up.

We bought our car in 2017 And we love driving it. because of our experience we bought TSLA which appreciated like crazy so much so that at one time we earned as much that we drove the car for free. My mistake last year is not cashing out on TSLA

We were sold on the out Model X with FSD being an appreciating asset. Soon we could deploy it as a Robotaxi so Elon told us. Our car has free unlimited supercharging and the future looked bright.

Last year the issues came. the stock price went down so we were not as rich as we thought we would be. We had some major repair bills on our Model X mounting to over $10,000 (front suspension. Lower and under arms etc). We thought it was a one of thing and that this year would be better. Last month we found out that we needed new front calipers, brake disks and pad. Again more than $3,000 repair bill.

Yesterday we drove and our heater stopped working. just got back an estimate of $2,200.

All these costs on top of a huge tax bill because of all the stocks we needed to sell last year.

We looked online about the average repair bill for a Model X and we don’t come near anything that is being said there.

As much as we love driving our Model X, we are seriously considering selling all our stocks and selling the car and start driving a”normal” car again. We never had these kind of repair bills on our old car (I remember most was $1,000 for an air conditioning repair). It is now 2023 and all the nice words of Elon were just that, nice words. He keeps doing that as V11 FSD is also nowhere to be found. I blame myself for not having cashed out when stocks were high. I never in my wildest dreams thought that TSLA would sink as low as it did. I also blame myself to being so gullible in believing Elon and the whole Tesla story.

It really hurts. I love driving the car. There is is nothing else like it, but having a $2,000 repair bill each month is unsustainable especially if there is nothing like a Robotaxi or appreciating TSLA to compensate that. I am sad man.

You'll drive a car you hate and it will need repairs too eventually, believe it or not - It will also cost money. In addition, you'll spend thousands for needed and recommended maintenance at the dealer. You'll spend thousands on gas and will have to smell it too.

 

[bkp_duke]

Never stopped him from posting the plan in the past. The plan isnt how to get there the plan is where they are going. Remember he is the one that said he would be posting it soon.

If memory serves me, Part II was very late as well. Obviously no one knew Part I was coming out.

And what does it matter? You think him releasing the "secret plan" is going to have a material impact on how Tesla operates?

 

[bkp_duke]

You'll drive a car you hate and it will need repairs too eventually, believe it or not - It will also cost money. In addition, you'll spend thousands for needed and recommended maintenance at the dealer. You'll spend thousands on gas and will have to smell it too.

Model X is the one Tesla I would never touch. Not dissing those that got the car, hope you all enjoy it. But the way my wife tries to maneuver in and out of the garage . . . a door would have been sheered off already. Funny thing, neighbor had to have 20k of work done on his X late last year for that very reason (although insurance covered his wife's mistake).

 

[SO16]

I am really thinking of giving up.

We bought our car in 2017 And we love driving it. because of our experience we bought TSLA which appreciated like crazy so much so that at one time we earned as much that we drove the car for free. My mistake last year is not cashing out on TSLA

We were sold on the out Model X with FSD being an appreciating asset. Soon we could deploy it as a Robotaxi so Elon told us. Our car has free unlimited supercharging and the future looked bright.

Last year the issues came. the stock price went down so we were not as rich as we thought we would be. We had some major repair bills on our Model X mounting to over $10,000 (front suspension. Lower and under arms etc). We thought it was a one of thing and that this year would be better. Last month we found out that we needed new front calipers, brake disks and pad. Again more than $3,000 repair bill.

Yesterday we drove and our heater stopped working. just got back an estimate of $2,200.

All these costs on top of a huge tax bill because of all the stocks we needed to sell last year.

We looked online about the average repair bill for a Model X and we don’t come near anything that is being said there.

As much as we love driving our Model X, we are seriously considering selling all our stocks and selling the car and start driving a”normal” car again. We never had these kind of repair bills on our old car (I remember most was $1,000 for an air conditioning repair). It is now 2023 and all the nice words of Elon were just that, nice words. He keeps doing that as V11 FSD is also nowhere to be found. I blame myself for not having cashed out when stocks were high. I never in my wildest dreams thought that TSLA would sink as low as it did. I also blame myself to being so gullible in believing Elon and the whole Tesla story.

It really hurts. I love driving the car. There is is nothing else like it, but having a $2,000 repair bill each month is unsustainable especially if there is nothing like a Robotaxi or appreciating TSLA to compensate that. I am sad man.

I have a model S same year with 94k miles.

So far so good. Only extra costs were MCU upgrade and FSD for 5k. But if I had to replace it, I’d get a Y. Especially now with the price reductions and tax breaks. The Y would be cheaper than many comparable gas cars.

What was your old car?

How many miles on your X?

 

[Ogre]

Going the other direction and saying it wasn't EA's fault. Why would Tesla take the liability to allow Rivians (this example) to charge on their network if it was a vehicle failure causing the charger to let its smoke out?

I'm thinking it's a little of Column A and a little of Column B.

Either way, there is zero chance I'm plugging my Model Y into an EA charger until I'm sure they've fixed this. While I agree that the car probably should have handled this, it's happened to 2 different types of EVs which makes me think something EA is doing is weird.

 

[2daMoon]

Going the other direction and saying it wasn't EA's fault. Why would Tesla take the liability to allow Rivians (this example) to charge on their network if it was a vehicle failure causing the charger to let its smoke out?

No matter what, the designer of any charger should never allow it to put out enough current to weld the contact points together. This is dealt with by monitoring the current flow and by knowing the working range the contacts have and allowing for a reasonable safety margin. Having a temperature sensor in the plug would complement this as well.

If the system detects that current or heat is nearing the limit, it adjusts the output as needed to stay within designated operational parameters.

This is so basic a design consideration I cannot fathom Tesla having not addressed this in their charger from the get-go. It would be a gross oversight in protecting the charger to have let the vehicle's communication be the only determining factor.

EA's design team may have been working from a different set of goals that put this consideration further down the list of priorities.

 

[Nocturnal]

Of course media is now reporting that Ford is calling people who recently bought/received Mach-Es and are offering to refund the new discount amount

All 200 of them.

I am really thinking of giving up.

It's too late to give up on the stock. The car, maybe consider trading it in for a Y?

 

[Big Time]

I am really thinking of giving up.

We bought our car in 2017 And we love driving it. because of our experience we bought TSLA which appreciated like crazy so much so that at one time we earned as much that we drove the car for free. My mistake last year is not cashing out on TSLA

We were sold on the out Model X with FSD being an appreciating asset. Soon we could deploy it as a Robotaxi so Elon told us. Our car has free unlimited supercharging and the future looked bright.

Last year the issues came. the stock price went down so we were not as rich as we thought we would be. We had some major repair bills on our Model X mounting to over $10,000 (front suspension. Lower and under arms etc). We thought it was a one of thing and that this year would be better. Last month we found out that we needed new front calipers, brake disks and pad. Again more than $3,000 repair bill.

Yesterday we drove and our heater stopped working. just got back an estimate of $2,200.

All these costs on top of a huge tax bill because of all the stocks we needed to sell last year.

We looked online about the average repair bill for a Model X and we don’t come near anything that is being said there.

As much as we love driving our Model X, we are seriously considering selling all our stocks and selling the car and start driving a”normal” car again. We never had these kind of repair bills on our old car (I remember most was $1,000 for an air conditioning repair). It is now 2023 and all the nice words of Elon were just that, nice words. He keeps doing that as V11 FSD is also nowhere to be found. I blame myself for not having cashed out when stocks were high. I never in my wildest dreams thought that TSLA would sink as low as it did. I also blame myself to being so gullible in believing Elon and the whole Tesla story.

It really hurts. I love driving the car. There is is nothing else like it, but having a $2,000 repair bill each month is unsustainable especially if there is nothing like a Robotaxi or appreciating TSLA to compensate that. I am sad man.

Can’t speak to your specific situation but my only advice is perhaps sell the X, keep as much stock as possible, and mb upgrade to a newer vehicle. I know that’s obviously easier said than done but perhaps you could trade in? I saw a post just today where Tesla is offering another 6K USD discount with a trade in? Couple that with IRA and could perhaps work out.

Best of luck,
Big time

 

[EVMeister]

I am really thinking of giving up.

We bought our car in 2017 And we love driving it. because of our experience we bought TSLA which appreciated like crazy so much so that at one time we earned as much that we drove the car for free. My mistake last year is not cashing out on TSLA

We were sold on the out Model X with FSD being an appreciating asset. Soon we could deploy it as a Robotaxi so Elon told us. Our car has free unlimited supercharging and the future looked bright.

Last year the issues came. the stock price went down so we were not as rich as we thought we would be. We had some major repair bills on our Model X mounting to over $10,000 (front suspension. Lower and under arms etc). We thought it was a one of thing and that this year would be better. Last month we found out that we needed new front calipers, brake disks and pad. Again more than $3,000 repair bill.

Yesterday we drove and our heater stopped working. just got back an estimate of $2,200.

All these costs on top of a huge tax bill because of all the stocks we needed to sell last year.

We looked online about the average repair bill for a Model X and we don’t come near anything that is being said there.

As much as we love driving our Model X, we are seriously considering selling all our stocks and selling the car and start driving a”normal” car again. We never had these kind of repair bills on our old car (I remember most was $1,000 for an air conditioning repair). It is now 2023 and all the nice words of Elon were just that, nice words. He keeps doing that as V11 FSD is also nowhere to be found. I blame myself for not having cashed out when stocks were high. I never in my wildest dreams thought that TSLA would sink as low as it did. I also blame myself to being so gullible in believing Elon and the whole Tesla story.

It really hurts. I love driving the car. There is is nothing else like it, but having a $2,000 repair bill each month is unsustainable especially if there is nothing like a Robotaxi or appreciating TSLA to compensate that. I am sad man.

If the car really is an unustainable money pit, by all means get rid of it or consider 'downgrading' to a lower maintenence Tesla, if you can afford it. As for the stock... If you think "not taking profits" last year fills you with regret, how do you think you'll feel years down the line if (when) the stock is significantly higher than it is now and setting new ATHs?

 

[insaneoctane]

Important to note that EVEN WITH the price cut, you still cannot get an AWD Mach E (in any trim) with the extended range battery under the $55K IRS limit for the rebate, AND there are no "7 seater" trims of the Mach e to qualify for the $80 "suv" limit (note: I believe Ford got shafted here too on the "car" designation). The standard range battery is rated at 224 miles in AWD trim, while the larger extended range battery is EPA rated at 310-312. Ford's margins (or lack thereof) on batteries showing up here.

Even comparing a base Model Y performance to a base Mach E GT with the extended range battery has the Mach E at $7K more after the cuts (neither qualifies for the rebate). Other trims with options are more competitive, but the lack of a truly competing $55K limit car is tough.

I have far more confidence in GM to convince the current administration that their union-loving Mach-e SUV deserves to be reclassified to get that tasty subsidy $$$ than I ever would Tesla trying to do the same thing.

 

[ZeApelido]

It's almost a weekly routine for Cruise to do something so stupid to reinforce the benefit of keeping cars as L2 assist as long as possible while working on the FSD kinks.

Firefighters were battling a major house fire near the intersection of Hayes and Divisadero streets early in the morning of Jan. 22 when a Cruise vehicle with no safety driver started to creep its way into the emergency scene.

Two firefighters stood in front of the car to prevent the vehicle from driving over hoses used to douse the growing inferno, but that didn’t work. As the car continued to inch forward, one firefighter took quick action and smashed the vehicle’s front window, finally bringing the car to a stop. First responders contacted Cruise, who sent workers to move the vehicle out of the way.

SF Officials Describe Street Chaos From Cruise, Waymo Robotaxis

Transit officials cited 92 incidents in which wayward robotaxis obstructed travelers or emergency responders.

sfstandard.com

Edit:

Me if I ever see an autonomous car creeping up on me with no intent to stop:

 

[insaneoctane]

It will be a net positive. Tesla will charge non-Tesla cars more than they do Teslas. It will generate revenue, and EV buyers of other brands will get to sit there and talk with Tesla owners and compare notes (about what their car doesn't do, that a Tesla does).

Has anyone done profit analysis for SC network? Seems like Supercharger stations need lots of solar and even more batteries to "get off the grid". Just curious how much battery and PV per stall a busy Supercharger station requires and the ROI time frame?

 

[bkp_duke]

Has anyone done profit analysis for SC network? Seems like Supercharger stations need lots of solar and even more batteries to "get off the grid". Just curious how much battery and PV per stall a busy Supercharger station requires and the ROI time frame?

All we have is on 1-2 occasions that Elon on quarterly calls has said that after the "all in" costs, the Supercharger network is ~10% profit margin.

 

[MP3Mike]

Tesla doesn't need the additional demand yet, but I see the partial opening of the network to non-Tesla as an important driver in the future for the "Tesla reluctant". It also gives Tesla access to IRA funds to expand their network.

I don't think the IRA has any funds available for charger installation. (At least I haven't seen any.)

Now, if Tesla makes CCS compatible chargers they could submit proposals to get NEVI funds, from a non-IRA bill, to install/upgrade chargers. But I don't think the V3 infrastructure would currently comply with the federal requirements, and each state applies their own requirements on top of the federal ones.

For example some things:

• in Oregon a site has to have 3) 150kW stalls and 1) 350kW stall, and has to be able to provide 150kW to all 4 at the same time. For Tesla V3 they would have to put half as many stalls per cabinet as normal, and that doesn't address the 350kW problem.)
• in Arizona they require Plug&Charge compatibility
• Sites have to be on, well within 1 mile of, specific federally identified highways, and approximately 50 miles from the next closest NEVI compliant site
• On-site displays and credit card readers, etc.

I expect Tesla to get very little, if any, of the NEVI funding for chargers. And really, we don't need any more publicity of Tesla getting $x millions of federal funding.

But contracts should start being issued in April for NEVI installs/upgrades, so we will likely see how things pan out then. (FYI Arizona is planning to spend all of the first year money upgrading non-NEVI compliant sites to be compliant, no new sites to be installed.)

 

[Skipdd]

I am really thinking of giving up.

We bought our car in 2017 And we love driving it. because of our experience we bought TSLA which appreciated like crazy so much so that at one time we earned as much that we drove the car for free. My mistake last year is not cashing out on TSLA

We were sold on the out Model X with FSD being an appreciating asset. Soon we could deploy it as a Robotaxi so Elon told us. Our car has free unlimited supercharging and the future looked bright.

Last year the issues came. the stock price went down so we were not as rich as we thought we would be. We had some major repair bills on our Model X mounting to over $10,000 (front suspension. Lower and under arms etc). We thought it was a one of thing and that this year would be better. Last month we found out that we needed new front calipers, brake disks and pad. Again more than $3,000 repair bill.

Yesterday we drove and our heater stopped working. just got back an estimate of $2,200.

All these costs on top of a huge tax bill because of all the stocks we needed to sell last year.

We looked online about the average repair bill for a Model X and we don’t come near anything that is being said there.

As much as we love driving our Model X, we are seriously considering selling all our stocks and selling the car and start driving a”normal” car again. We never had these kind of repair bills on our old car (I remember most was $1,000 for an air conditioning repair). It is now 2023 and all the nice words of Elon were just that, nice words. He keeps doing that as V11 FSD is also nowhere to be found. I blame myself for not having cashed out when stocks were high. I never in my wildest dreams thought that TSLA would sink as low as it did. I also blame myself to being so gullible in believing Elon and the whole Tesla story.

It really hurts. I love driving the car. There is is nothing else like it, but having a $2,000 repair bill each month is unsustainable especially if there is nothing like a Robotaxi or appreciating TSLA to compensate that. I am sad man.

I feel for you. As some other posters noted, I’d probably get rid of the specific car. If I could afford it, I’d get a Model Y. Like @SO16 I have a 2017 Model S. I’ve had pretty good luck with it. I did purchase the MCU2 upgrade. It is currently at the Service Center because the driver’s door handle broke, had error messages on cameras - which they addressed, and I began noticing a whirring sound from the front motor, which they diagnosed as a bad drive unit. I have the Extended Service Agreement which I am expecting will cover everything except for the $200 deductible. I have just under 80,000 miles. I am also significantly under water on TSLA (better than it was but still down 37%). I am staying the course, but continuing to assess things. I’m sure it was discussed here (work is crazy right now and I’m only popping in and out as I can), but the fact that Toyota’s CEO is stepping down, given his ownership and family connection is a strong tell to the disruption that is underway. As long as Tesla continues to execute, other dominoes will fall, and then TSLA will climb and be valued more.

 

[Nocturnal]

Has anyone done profit analysis for SC network? Seems like Supercharger stations need lots of solar and even more batteries to "get off the grid". Just curious how much battery and PV per stall a busy Supercharger station requires and the ROI time frame?

I haven't seen one. We would need usage amounts with times by each location. Then you could run that against the likely tariffs that each location might be receiving based on total usage etc. I struggle with the arguments that charging stations will be cash cows.

 

[Dreadnought]

No matter what, the designer of any charger should never allow it to put out enough current to weld the contact points together. This is dealt with by monitoring the current flow and by knowing the working range the contacts have and allowing for a reasonable safety margin. Having a temperature sensor in the plug would complement this as well.

If the system detects that current or heat is nearing the limit, it adjusts the output as needed to stay within designated operational parameters.

This is so basic a design consideration I cannot fathom Tesla having not addressed this in their charger from the get-go. It would be a gross oversight in protecting the charger to have let the vehicle's communication be the only determining factor.

EA's design team may have been working from a different set of goals that put this consideration further down the list of priorities.

If only someone had told them about this brand new concept of "fuses".

 

[ripper88]

Model X is the one Tesla I would never touch. Not dissing those that got the car, hope you all enjoy it. But the way my wife tries to maneuver in and out of the garage . . . a door would have been sheered off already. Funny thing, neighbor had to have 20k of work done on his X late last year for that very reason (although insurance covered his wife's mistake).

If one of the falcon wing doors is open and you take it out of park you get a very obvious warning and chimes that the door is open and up in red right in front of your face. If you still move the vehicle and damage one of the doors it's your fault. Similar to someone backing out of a garage with one of the doors open. Nobody's fault but your own.