Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[MP3Mike]

Wall Street has always rewarded companies that do big layoffs.

No they don't. Specifically, they didn't reward Tesla when they did a big layoff.

 

[FSDtester#1]

What we had seen for order flows so far would have been based on Tesla’s big price cuts plus now qualifying for the $7500 incentive while all these other vehicles were both more expensive and didn’t qualify for the tax incentive. Order books are likely now filled out to who knows where with the reduced prices.

Nothing here has changed for the Y LR except the optioned variants, but now all those competitor vehicles are effectively $7500 cheaper.

Increasing prices on the Y LR will now further exacerbate that difference, plus the public perception that’s being built around the price changes. The idea of price increases might be offset by, as you said, the credit being cut in half or down to $0 based on the battery component and critical mineral guidance.

The more I think about it, the more this all seems like a deliberate strategy. Who knows, it’s super fun to watch though

I think what we might see as someone kinda mentioned earlier is during the order process, they now will feel comfortable upgrading paint, wheels, wall chargers, etc to their order and we know there are huge margins in those, not to mention basically 100% margins in EAP and FSD upgrades. The general public doesn't know or care about all the details. As long as at checkout their order says it still qualifies for the tax credit, I call that a win, even with current pricing.

 

[Singuy]

What we had seen for order flows so far would have been based on Tesla’s big price cuts plus now qualifying for the $7500 incentive while all these other vehicles were both more expensive and didn’t qualify for the tax incentive. Order books are likely now filled out to who knows where with the reduced prices.

Nothing here has changed for the Y LR except the optioned variants, but now all those competitor vehicles are effectively $7500 cheaper.

Increasing prices on the Y LR will now further exacerbate that difference, plus the public perception that’s being built around the price changes. The idea of price increases might be offset by, as you said, the credit being cut in half or down to $0 based on the battery component and critical mineral guidance.

The more I think about it, the more this all seems like a deliberate strategy. Who knows, it’s super fun to watch though

Mach-E seems to have dropped prices 4 days ago before the new government qualifications. You would think they would wait if they knew something was in the pipeline.

Anyways, two new Mach E models opened up to the rebate with today's announcement, the extended range and GT.
One new sku from Tesla now qualifies being the performance MY.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

No they don't. Specifically, they didn't reward Tesla when they did a big layoff.

What applies to other companies do not apply to Tesla.

Other companies beat earnings - stock goes up
Tesla beats earnings - stock goes down
Other companies do layoffs - stock goes up
Tesla does layoffs - stock goes down

We know one thing for sure though, holding tesla for the long term yields massive returns compared to holding other companies.

 

[Olle]

Tesla owners were already pretty evenly split between Republicans and Democrats before the Twitter deal.

What are you basing this even split on? I see an overwhelming overweight of D among Tesla owners so far, from personally being in touch with around 50/50 D/R. Not that Republicans don't want the best car (=Tesla), many just don't seem to like to support the perceived enemy side (=left, clean energy, liberal, previous Elon et.c.).

 

[AndrewZ]

I think what we might see as someone kinda mentioned earlier is during the order process, they now will feel comfortable upgrading paint, wheels, wall chargers, etc to their order and we know there are huge margins in those, not to mention basically 100% margins in EAP and FSD upgrades. The general public doesn't know or care about all the details. As long as at checkout their order says it still qualifies for the tax credit, I call that a win, even with current pricing.

Software upgrades were excluded from the MSRP limits right, but I can definitely see more optioned variants and Performances moving

I don’t know if prices will change with the credits likely changing as further guidance is issues on the components and minerals, but who knows. That just seems like too much risk of up and down, and the current change doesn’t further improve the picture for the base Y LR but improves the picture for all the competitors.

 

[Singuy]

What applies to other companies do not apply to Tesla.

Other companies beat earnings - stock goes up
Tesla beats earnings - stock goes down
Other companies do layoffs - stock goes up
Tesla does layoffs - stock goes down

We know one thing for sure though, holding tesla for the long term yields massive returns compared to holding other companies.

It's the demand narrative that will forever be around until the end of the novel. Other big tech companies are at the end of their growth curve, and they are the market leader. They see layoffs as cost cutting. Tesla is in the mist of their growth curve, and it's the exact position of this growth curve that causes the most debate. Bulls believe we are at the bottom of the steep S curve, while bears think we are at the top, and beginning to slow. So with that narrative, job cuts give people the impression that it's more the top than the bottom.

Elon however relentlessly keep operating cost in check since inception. This is how you have this company having a positive operating margin with high revenue growth which is unheard of (and how not to bankrupt a rocket/car company with high paid US workers...again unheard of). You are only suppose to have a high OM at the end of the S curve revenue growth, not the beginning or middle. That's why there's so much push and pull between bulls and bears.

 

[geometro]

I'm hoping Tesla doesn't raise the price on the Y too much.... at current pricing it's in a consideration set for many shoppers that would not have considered it at the higher price point (I definitely think the pricing got out of control at ~ $70K for the LR Model Y).

 

[Nocturnal]

I'm hoping Tesla doesn't raise the price on the Y too much.... at current pricing it's in a consideration set for many shoppers that would not have considered it at the higher price point (I definitely think the pricing got out of control at ~ $70K for the LR Model Y).

I hope they raise it exactly as much as needed to match fully supply with demand.

 

[rsm287]

Impact of Tesla price cuts in one chart.

Granted many of these brands were already down-trending, but this year is particularly bad. Gonna be a rough 2023 for a lot of car companies. And Tesla hasn’t even released their affordable truck or their most affordable car.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1621241349012848640

I agree with the sentiment, but the chart may be slightly misleading in this respect. It compares January '23 sales to December '22. I think it's normal to see lower sales in January than in December. If you compare January '23 to January '22, most of the automakers seem to be up slightly (except for Toyota).

One month of data is probably not enough to see the impact anyway and it will be interesting to see what happens over the course of this year.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Impact of Tesla price cuts in one chart.

Granted many of these brands were already down-trending, but this year is particularly bad. Gonna be a rough 2023 for a lot of car companies. And Tesla hasn’t even released their affordable truck or their most affordable car.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1621241349012848640

All the charts look the same to me.
This is what Bandit sees...

 

[Artful Dodger]

That article points to two new battery patent applications. Honestly this one sounds even more interesting:

This sounds like it's based on this research published by Dr. Jeff Dahn and others:

Cycling Lithium Metal on Graphite to Form Hybrid Lithium-Ion/Lithium Metal Cells: Joule | Google Scholar 2020-05-14 (here's the PDF download of the paper).

At the time of publication, I theorized this would be an Li-Ion cell used in Aviation. This cell has good capacity vs. typical NCA chemistries, but also has a reserve capacity when the cell gets down to consuming lithium metal in the cathode. This is a one-way trip for the lithium metal, and there is enough for about 50 deep cycle. This is ideal for an Airliner, which may only need to use its 45-min reserve a few times per year for example, go-arounds, or divert-to-alternate due to wx. Paging @Unpilot

Paging The Limiting Factor for a deep dive into these patents!

He's not on this site that I know of, but you can msg him on the blue birdie...

Cheers!

 

[Ogre]

I hope they raise it exactly as much as needed to match fully supply with demand.

I think the plan is to increase production to match demand. Then to lower prices again and increase production to keep up with that new demand level. … etc. Repeat.

All the charts look the same to me.
This is what Bandit sees...

View attachment 902919

…. ….. I question your sources. There is way too much greatness attributed to GM for this to be realistic.

 

[aubreymcfato]

Not sure if you noticed but January 2023 in Europe is already 10x than January 2022

Wiki - Tesla Europe Registration Stats

This wiki belongs to the thread EU Market situation and outlook. Click HERE (CTRL-click to open in new tab) to add new data using a Google form. Any forum member can contribute. We encourage you to do so! Your entry will appear after the data is double-checked by other volunteers. If the data...

teslamotorsclub.com

And we miss UK numbers!

 

[Artful Dodger]

I know, what on earth am I doing here?

Gettin' stonkin' rich, I hope.

 

[FEERSUMENDJIN]

Not sure if you noticed but January 2023 in Europe is already 10x than January 2022

Wiki - Tesla Europe Registration Stats

This wiki belongs to the thread EU Market situation and outlook. Click HERE (CTRL-click to open in new tab) to add new data using a Google form. Any forum member can contribute. We encourage you to do so! Your entry will appear after the data is double-checked by other volunteers. If the data...

teslamotorsclub.com

And we miss UK numbers!

No boat arrived in Southhampton yet.

 

[Cosmacelf]

This sounds like it's based on this research published by Dr. Jeff Dahn and others:

Cycling Lithium Metal on Graphite to Form Hybrid Lithium-Ion/Lithium Metal Cells: Joule | Google Scholar 2020-05-14 (here's the PDF download of the paper).

He's not on this site that I know of, but you can msg him on the blue birdie...

I did and he replied with this. I'm totally lost now

I think it's going to be key to higher loadings of silicon in the anode. With carbon it's a nice boost of about 5% energy density, but with silicon huge gains are possible with lithium doping.

 

[rsm287]

Not sure if you noticed but January 2023 in Europe is already 10x than January 2022

Wiki - Tesla Europe Registration Stats

This wiki belongs to the thread EU Market situation and outlook. Click HERE (CTRL-click to open in new tab) to add new data using a Google form. Any forum member can contribute. We encourage you to do so! Your entry will appear after the data is double-checked by other volunteers. If the data...

teslamotorsclub.com

And we miss UK numbers!

I think that's partly due to unwinding the wave (normally ships don't arrive until the 2nd and 3rd months of the quarter) and also more cars are being produced in Berlin now.

For the EU countries that report daily registrations you can clearly see the difference when comparing to previous quarters....Q4 2022 was already showing signs of earlier deliveries and now in Q1 they are starting even earlier still:

Source: EU countries that report daily registrations (4 countries)

And hopefully we'll see the curve going up a bit steeper too as Berlin ramps up production!

 

[FSDtester#1]

Software upgrades were excluded from the MSRP limits right, but I can definitely see more optioned variants and Performances moving

I don’t know if prices will change with the credits likely changing as further guidance is issues on the components and minerals, but who knows. That just seems like too much risk of up and down, and the current change doesn’t further improve the picture for the base Y LR but improves the picture for all the competitors.

My main point is people in this forum know the granular details of how the credit works. The everyday purchaser doesn't know or really care as long as at checkout a little box comes up and says "Your configuration qualifies for the $7500".
They don't know about software, paint, etc. if those things can put them over the limit. Just give them a .. your order is placed and you qualify baby!

 

[SunCatcher]

Gettin' stonkin' rich, I hope.

Bingo! Slow and a bit painful, but jinx-me-not, it's happening!