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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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I am overall glad to see Tesla going up. But I don’t quite understand why at the moment. Aren’t we expecting low margins from all the price cuts and at most deliveries in line with estimates? Is it all the AI hype? I’m still not convinced FSD will ever be a viable replacement for a human driver. I agree it is getting better but I’m not sure it will far exceed safety of a human driver. I do have a lot of shares so I will be ecstatic if it does work eventually. Why don’t I sell you ask? Because of the taxes and because I don’t want to miss out if Elon somehow pulls it all off. Perhaps being bombarded by a year of constant negativity has given me a more pessimistic attitude. I look at the new inventory and price cuts and I don’t see a reason to be bullish in the short term. But I’ve been wrong before many times.
Who really knows but I would say a combination of better Macro, fading Twitter overhang, and since market looks ahead, CT delivers starting.
 
I am overall glad to see Tesla going up. But I don’t quite understand why at the moment. Aren’t we expecting low margins from all the price cuts and at most deliveries in line with estimates? Is it all the AI hype? I’m still not convinced FSD will ever be a viable replacement for a human driver. I agree it is getting better but I’m not sure it will far exceed safety of a human driver. I do have a lot of shares so I will be ecstatic if it does work eventually. Why don’t I sell you ask? Because of the taxes and because I don’t want to miss out if Elon somehow pulls it all off. Perhaps being bombarded by a year of constant negativity has given me a more pessimistic attitude. I look at the new inventory and price cuts and I don’t see a reason to be bullish in the short term. But I’ve been wrong before many times.

Yeah I often feel similar. But over the years, it has often been going down when I thought things were good and vice versa. There are always good news and bad news, but most things we discuss everyday are not really fundamental to the stock. Tesla keeps selling more cars every year and building factories from the money they make, and if the margin goes down (but still on a high level for an auto maker) for a while so be it. I think that big institutions make money on big stock price swings, so there are phases where they leverage any piece of bad news and other times where just the good news is reported and most people get into this manic-depressive pattern with the stock, fueling the momentum, even if nothing fundamental has changed. Right now the end of the rate hikes triggers a manic phase I think.

I try to sit on my hands as much as possible and sell a small chunk whenever stock price runs really high to live off for a year or so. Not advice.
 
Unlikely conspiracy theory of the day:

Elon is assembling a top Optimus team in secret by sending them out to further their understanding and build the necessary tools:
  • Karpathy
    • Spying at OpenAI so that he can bring the best of ChatGPT to X.AI which will power Optimus' high level functions (non real world AGI)
  • Chris Lattner
    • Currently a owner & CEO at Modular
    • Developing the Optimus software language Mojo that combines the best of Python and C++.
    • He is expecting other hardware (Dojo?) to compete with Nvidia (Cuda is exclusive to Nvidia)
  • Carmack
    • Currently owner of Keen Technologies
    • Left Oculus to setup a NN company. Could be used to lead an Optimus team or gaming or VR at X app
  • Jim Keller
    • CEO of Tenstorrent
    • Will return as a CEO - ready to develop multiple chips for Dojo, Optimus and FSD simultaneously with multiple big teams
I call them the power rangers:
1685874528616.png

The question is; do they know Elon has set them these quests?
 
1685878782244.png
BID = BYD? Picture from video below

My Summary of video:
Suggestion that Chinese EV sales in Norway have fallen. Over 100 models of EVs for sale in Norway. Norway as a guide to the future. Lots of Chinese EVs are at higher prices (which may attract tax). Only MG are ok, similar to last year. Tesla Model Y doing well. Some brands eg Geely delaying entry in Norwegian market.

My opinion:
Tesla is the new Toyota - safe choice as a family car for a wide variety of reasons. It's also the best choice for roadtripping sales/management/consultants - so also the safe choice for ex BMW/Audi/Merc users. Price is competitive.

Some comments on video:
"I'm from Norway and can explain a some of this. From January 1st this year a tax was added to cars costing over 500 000 NOK, this meant cars like HongQi, BYD Tang, Nio etc went up in price, at the same time Tesla lowered their prices so that you can get a good specified Tesla Y under the tax threshold. I think some of the sudden change in purchasing behavior is linked to this, over time this will even out more as the Chinese brands comes with cars in the attractive price range. The BYD Atto 3 is a good car in the right price range, but I don't see them at dealers nowadays, maybe Hertz have taken too many of them, I'm not sure."

"Tesla Y and 3 in particular are in a sweet-spot here in Norway. You get a model 3 free of tax and pay a little tax on the model Y LR but everything beyond that range get this premium addition taxed this year, while it was free last year. Hence, everyone wanted their premium evs delivered last year. In addition the Norwegian currency has dropped quite a bit so those not lowering the price below roughly 45 thousand USD get hit this year. In addition politics, Ukraine and uncertainty around tech “war” isn’t helping the Chinese."

"The book "Crossing the Chasm" describes how early adopters in a technology are more willing to experiment in purchases, whereas mainstream (later) adopters are more conservative." so Tesla are the safe choice?

"SIMPLE REASON: Tesla delivers the best package available. Best software, best quality for the money, best in reliability."

 
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I am overall glad to see Tesla going up. But I don’t quite understand why at the moment. Aren’t we expecting low margins from all the price cuts and at most deliveries in line with estimates? Is it all the AI hype? I’m still not convinced FSD will ever be a viable replacement for a human driver. I agree it is getting better but I’m not sure it will far exceed safety of a human driver. I do have a lot of shares so I will be ecstatic if it does work eventually. Why don’t I sell you ask? Because of the taxes and because I don’t want to miss out if Elon somehow pulls it all off. Perhaps being bombarded by a year of constant negativity has given me a more pessimistic attitude. I look at the new inventory and price cuts and I don’t see a reason to be bullish in the short term. But I’ve been wrong before many times.
Maybe two reasons. 1) AI is hot. 2) Elon is showing his ability, leadership and courage. The combination of those two factors has people thinking about where Tesla will be in 2032 (not Q2 2023) again.
 
Unlikely conspiracy theory of the day:

Elon is assembling a top Optimus team in secret by sending them out to further their understanding and build the necessary tools:
  • Karpathy
    • Spying at OpenAI so that he can bring the best of ChatGPT to X.AI which will power Optimus' high level functions (non real world AGI)
  • Chris Lattner
    • Currently a owner & CEO at Modular
    • Developing the Optimus software language Mojo that combines the best of Python and C++.
    • He is expecting other hardware (Dojo?) to compete with Nvidia (Cuda is exclusive to Nvidia)
  • Carmack
    • Currently owner of Keen Technologies
    • Left Oculus to setup a NN company. Could be used to lead an Optimus team or gaming or VR at X app
  • Jim Keller
    • CEO of Tenstorrent
    • Will return as a CEO - ready to develop multiple chips for Dojo, Optimus and FSD simultaneously with multiple big teams
I call them the power rangers:
View attachment 943801
The question is; do they know Elon has set them these quests?
You forgot to include Max Tegmark, Elon’s good friend, in your little conspiracy theory 😂

Many bulls like Teslabits

Huh? Who is Teslabits?
 
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Fantastic.

Anecdotal evidence of greatness: we just got our Powerwall RMA'd (replaced for free) by Tesla. We had no idea anything was wrong; heck, it worked for us in an outage just a few weeks ago and continued to execute our programmed option to store a little extra solar power during the day to give back at night.
But apparently Tesla's internal monitoring said "this battery is beginning to exhibit symptoms", and they sent a new one to our solar contractor (who also handles our Powerwall). Battery replaced proactively, no problems experienced by us, all thanks to automated monitoring and Tesla Big Data analytics. **Edit to add:** Also, the engineer who commissioned the new battery said he's been doing this work since 2015, and this is only the **2nd** Powerwall RMA he's ever needed to do.

Summary thought on the Ford Supercharger decision: it just means Ford wants to live.

Further, for no good reason other than we are on a good vibrations day today, let me just say THANK YOU to the Tesla team for making the Supercharger network 100% renewable this year, making both our Model Y's 100% renewably powered now, pretty much no matter where we take them, and making our new Ford customers/partners-in-creating-the-future 100% renewable when they show up.

"Slim" margins be damned, folks, this is what winning the future looks like.
Was the entire powerwall replaced, or just the pack in it?
 
We also don't know what Ford is bringing to the table either. I suppose it could just be that Elon wants the make sure the SC network is truly dominant. That's cocky enough to be an Elon move to be sure.

Maybe he wants to crush EA/VW for firing his buddy? ;)
It's interesting that many (most?) company leaders believe that moats are good, so work hard to keep them for as long as possible, which can work for a while, but eventually they tend to be breached. Often times, a company relies on those and fails to instead innovate, and they go by the wayside.

In a few cases, leaders are confident enough in their technology/execution, that they are of the opinion "moats are lame" (-E. Musk), and instead would rather be recognized as the leader in a rapidly expanding ecosystem... and this often pays off...

Elon is definitely the latter.
 

Not taking deliveries, GPS jammers? They really don’t want people seeing what’s going on there.
Nothing to see here. They're probably just having a whole bunch of children dig another new cobalt mine on-site. And then those kids will also be digging a coal mine to power all of Tesla's cars. And there's probably something scary related to "rare earth metals" that they are hiding too, because mis-using a term that people barely remember from high school chemistry triggers irrational fears too. Oh, and maybe the factory also has a big landfill to bury all those EV batteries that become toxic waste after a few years.

/S in case it wasn't obvious...
 
"You've been reading too much Elon Musk" says Sophia

As per @Maarten 's comment below, the bot's comment about Elon was definitely pre-scripted. The interviewer acknowledged much of the conversation was scripted. The facial responses were impressive though, not sure why the bot was without human hair which would have added to the realism effect.
 
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