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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
I fully expect Tesla/Elon Musk to enter concurrent, sincere negotiations over candidate GF sites in at least three different EU countries. So I wouldn't conclude more than Poland is likely one of several candidates.
Btw, with regards to sustainability, Poland is to Norway what Wyoming is to California. So I guess a BEV factory there could have an impact...
No hold back for me since I just ordered and waiting delivery, but pretty bad advertising if I have to slow charge besides a Bolt or a Kona on my way to Montreal...
Antares Nebula
Active Member
I'm inclined to agree with you. I think the 240-260 area is pretty good support, and in spite of all the bad news, it hasn't broken. I'm just kinda parroting what the other TA folks are saying. Usually when a stock is right at support, it's either gonna bounce or break. At this point, the news would have to be pretty bad, like a major loss on the upcoming earnings report and/or a big cap raise. Seeing how the ER was moved up, I think that is unlikely. Nonetheless, it's good to be aware of all the risks and mentally prepare yourself just in case. Because I'm still holding and adding to my position, I obviously believe we are going to bounce and bounce big, but I've been known to be wrong!
thanks for the qualification. beginner here and soaking up everything like a sponge. appreciate it a lot!!!
Carl Raymond
Active Member
A few more Teslas sold, courtesy of The Boring Company...
DOT Completes Review of Draft Environmental Assessment for the Proposed “Loop” Tunnel Project Between Baltimore and Washington, D.C.
DOT Completes Review of Draft Environmental Assessment for the Proposed “Loop” Tunnel Project Between Baltimore and Washington, D.C.
In just a few (trading) days, Tesla is holding a major event aimed specifically at big investors. Whatever they are about to unveil is not only meant to influence investors, but also is going to be used to justify an increase in FSD pricing.
If Tesla can make a convincing case that FSD is likely to increase in value, then they can project some very substantial revenue (with 100% margin) that will be unlocked in the future (perhaps by the current car owner or perhaps by a future owner, but somebody will unlock that increasing value), not only on the 500,000 cars to be sold this coming year, but also on all the FSD eligible cars that have already been purchased without FSD. I don’t know how accountants account for that, but it would have a very material impact on Tesla’s profitability. It’s an enormous and growing asset.
If Tesla can make a convincing case that FSD is likely to increase in value, then they can project some very substantial revenue (with 100% margin) that will be unlocked in the future (perhaps by the current car owner or perhaps by a future owner, but somebody will unlock that increasing value), not only on the 500,000 cars to be sold this coming year, but also on all the FSD eligible cars that have already been purchased without FSD. I don’t know how accountants account for that, but it would have a very material impact on Tesla’s profitability. It’s an enormous and growing asset.
"Deepak Ahuja
... I think reservations are not relevant for us. We are really focused on orders. Now we do have a large reservations backlog still, which tells us that a lot of customers are still waiting for those cars, but I don't think it's appropriate to share the reservations number."
Carl Raymond
Active Member
Oh please let that name stick. Thoroughly earned.
In light of the FSD investor event, this can be a helpful bit of background info if not already viewed. It is Lex Friedman from MIT giving a 2018 year end status report and a little more. Tesla figures in it but also others - 54 minutes.
bdy0627
Active Member
1 more full trading day before the FSD demonstration on Monday. So far, I have seen it mentioned that it begins at 11 am PST. I have not seen that confirmed though. There will at least be some trading time Monday before the event. Thus far, the stock has basically continued to consolidate in the lower part of this downward wedge with no real market response to the event on Monday. That tells me that sentiment/expectation continues to be very low. There doesn't appear to be much fear for shorts heading into the event, probably partly because of the many previous big drops following events, as well as the dismal expectations for the Q1 ER 2 days later. Unless we go up a LOT tomorrow and Monday morning, which seems pretty unlikely, there really isn't much risk of a big drop from a disappointing event. IMO, going into these events with bearish expectations bodes well for the potential of a positive market response, even if it's only modest. It's much easier to exceed expectations when almost every long who is nervous has already sold shares and shorts have increased their bets. Even if the FSD event is not great and the Q1 ER is bad as expected, who's going to sell at that point and how many more shorts are there to increase their bets?
Surprise pick-up reveal? (as in RAM competitor)
Nah, probably not...
I am going to publish my information after an official Tesla announcement.
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