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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
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I'd also add that this is a UK station...so even if 350kW is the upper limit of this particular station, Tesla might have different V4 configurations for the US. I could see this being true since the Cybertruck isn't headed to the UK anytime soon, and even the newest versions of S and X will be limited there, so no real motivation to install higher power superchargers.
I'm pretty sure the current Bolt production uses batteries made by LG in the US. (They made that switch a couple years ago if I recall correctly.)
Unfortunately, much of that strong demand went into higher prices via dealer markups...so only a fraction of the extra profits went up to the manufacturers. Another way Tesla's unique business model proved beneficial...
What I want to know is do any of these V4 stations support 800v charging? (I know the pedestal supports it, but I don't know if the actual charger does yet.)
Xepa777
Member
1) Makes sense that the "exoskeleton" design failed, and was a reason for the delays, like what Munro said in the video
2) The 4680 has been very very delayed in production ramp projections, another reason why the Cybertruck was delayed
3) "We make so many 3/Y we can't make Cybertruck now" was, as I said, a PR cover-up for points #1 and #2 as the Cybertruck was always gonna use 4680s not 2170s
4) I wouldn't be surprised if the Cybertruck price is meaningfully higher than originally quoted for points above + my points in my previous posts, but Elon hand-waves it away and tries to re-write history saying the Cybertruck was always a niche vehicle to begin with in volume relative to the Tesla fleet.
Buckminster
Well-Known Member
Wow. Munro Associates essentially disparaging the Cybertruck, main points:
1) The "exoskeleton" is essentially useless. Sandy disappointed.
2) They expect the weight to be way more than they were hoping for.
3) It will have much less space than they were hoping for.
adiggs
Well-Known Member
It's interesting to me how consistently this has been the case since, like, forever.
Add incentives to buy EVs? Primary beneficiary - Tesla.
Take away incentives to buy EVs? Primary beneficiary - Tesla.
Infrastructure Reduction Act...
...
Seems like there have been more and I'm just not thinking of them right now. I can't ever remember something of this sort where it was clear it was some other EV maker that benefited in a meaningful and larger way than Tesla. I can remember situations where it seemed like governments were trying to accomplish that outcome.
Optimeer
Member
Tesla's Fremont factory has reportedly paused production according to Sawyer Merritt:
This could be linked to the Highland Upgrade we were waiting for. For me, the shutdown of the whole plant instead of for example just a line indicates that many changes will be implemented. I think such a big change needs a justification, which could be a capacity increase. If significant changes are implemented, the facility needs to ramp up again, which will cost capacity during the ramp-up.
This could be linked to the Highland Upgrade we were waiting for. For me, the shutdown of the whole plant instead of for example just a line indicates that many changes will be implemented. I think such a big change needs a justification, which could be a capacity increase. If significant changes are implemented, the facility needs to ramp up again, which will cost capacity during the ramp-up.
bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
Most interesting part of that video for me was the Gigacasting expansion that is visible. That's VERY good news for something like Highland.
Appropriate downtime in order to boost production. Love it.
2daMoon
Mostly Harmless
All of the people disparaging the Cybertruck don't see the big picture here. Y'all should take another swing at your assessment.
In the Munro video it was pointed out how the CT frunk will be roughly the right size to hold a set or two of golf clubs, and, the vehicle is all electric which is very quiet. So, don't get teed off at me for pointing out the obvious here.
The target market for the CT will be for use as a premium golf cart at country clubs everywhere.
Okay, maybe I should take a Mulligan and just play through...
In the Munro video it was pointed out how the CT frunk will be roughly the right size to hold a set or two of golf clubs, and, the vehicle is all electric which is very quiet. So, don't get teed off at me for pointing out the obvious here.
The target market for the CT will be for use as a premium golf cart at country clubs everywhere.
Okay, maybe I should take a Mulligan and just play through...
I just booked my non-refundable holiday on the weekend.
1.) The exoskeleton was a buzzword gimmick that added totally no value to the consumer.
2.) They are the experts, but the weight will be what it will be. We will know soon.
3.) If this is a frunk reference, then what I see is nothing can go below the windshield because it's packed with electronics. Short hood, short Frunk.
I don't know why you use the word disparaging. I say evaluating.
IMO Megapacks produced at Lathrop will increasingly pivot to export due to IRA rules.
I think you are right that US LFP manufacturing may have an excess, but I'm not sure Tesla can safely base their North American Megapack production on that assumption.
Many of these factories are joint ventures with car companies, or have car companies as intended customers. IMO there are increasing signs that we are about to enter the "wild stampede" phase of EV adoption, where all car companies decide that swimming the moat ASAP is their only chance of survival.
But in particular I not convinced that any other form of IRA compliant LFP battery production can ramp faster that 4680 LFP, or produce cells on a cheaper per kWh basis than 4680.
Most of the the cost savings in battery day are "chemistry agnostic" the only exception is the 12% cost reduction due to Cathode material.
So I think it should be possible for Tesla to make 4680 LFP cells and that will probably be the cheapest LFP cells they can source on a per kWh basis.
Then we come to the question of whether or not 4680 LFP is adequate. For energy storage it doesn't matter, for vehicles the advantages of a structural pack probably cancel out any other minor disadvantages.
IMO the Austin cathode plant is important for the following reasons:-
- Allow 4680 production to ramp to high volumes
- 12% cost reduction per cell.
- Fully IRA compliant
- Single crystal cathode? (possibly later)
When the Semi needs to move to 4680 cells might depend in part of whether or not Sparks 2170 production can use cathode material produced at Austin.
An easy path to very high levels of IRA compliance is for Fremont, Sparks and Mexico to source battery raw materials from Texas.
For the Berlin ramp, raw materials that are being imported into Sparks could be shipped to Berlin instead. I'm not aware of any current plan for a Cathode plant at or near Berlin.
Class A and Class B cells we don't really know what is going on with them, or why the grading is done. My suspicion is that Class A and Class B cells can't be mixed in a single pack, but an all Class B pack is fine. Tesla just needs to avoid shipping a vehicle with a Class B pack to a customer?
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Rapid growth not only hurts margins through underutilized production capacity and work force as you point out, there’s nearly zero fully depreciated / amortized assets as well. In addition operating expenses are higher. Building stores, staffing HR, setting up service centers has to be done ahead of time at a scale for a company that will 1.5X larger or more depending on the lead time.
And in Tesla’s case, R&D is scaled for a company > 10X larger. E.g. $1B R&D annually for Dojo, that is not currently affecting the bottom line. Unboxing manufacturing R&D, Optimus…
Truly having positive free cash flow with this kind of growth is just staggering.
The section 179 deduction depends on gross vehicle weight rating, not curb/ empty weight.
Commercial vehicles over 10k GVWR are subject to DOT requirements.
The reveal was shooting for 3.5k payload which would put an empty ceiling of 6,500 to stay under 10k GVWR.
Commercial vehicles over 10k GVWR are subject to DOT requirements.
The reveal was shooting for 3.5k payload which would put an empty ceiling of 6,500 to stay under 10k GVWR.
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