Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[cab]

What does this mean?

We have updated our future vehicle line-up to accelerate the launch of new models ahead of our previously communicated start of production in the second half of 2025.These new vehicles, including more affordable models, will utilize aspects of the next generation platform as well as aspects of our current platforms, and will be able to be produced on the same manufacturing lines as our current vehicle line-up.This update may result in achieving less cost reduction than previously expected but enables us to prudently grow ourvehicle volumes in a more capex efficient manner during uncertain times. This would help us fully utilize our currentexpected maximum capacity of close to three million vehicles, enabling more than 50% growth over 2023 production before investing in new manufacturing lines.Our purpose-built robotaxi product will continue to pursue a revolutionary “unboxed” manufacturing strategy

From Page 10

You know how Honda has the CRV and the smaller, cheaper HRV...that's what Tesla is likely doing with the Model Y (creating a smaller/cheaper version). The Model 3 will get a cheaper Model 2 (think 3is to 2 as Accord is to Civic). They say it will be a mix of the old and new platform, but if it is on the same production line I'm guessing it will be a lot more of the "old" (tweaked for some cost savings and to maybe try out a few of the things they have learned) than the new unboxed process which is now exclusively RoboTaxi. They just have to do it profitably since the "unboxed" savings won't be there...(aka expect a smaller battery and less range...which for most folks should be fine).

or....it could just be really decontented versions of existing 3 and Y...which would have to have smaller batteries to save any real $$$

 

[Mengy]

It means Model 2 is dead, instead they'll build lower cost 3/Y variants on existing production lines. These variants might have some newer features, like 48V. They won't be 25k, but probably a few thousand less than current 3/Y. I expect some variants will have body mods, e.g. maybe a Y with a boxier back end to be more SUV-like, maybe a convertible version of 3, etc. Might learn more in the call, but they'll probably use the "no product pre-announcements" dodge.

The Robotaxi will use the new unboxed process.

I take it to mean the "Model 2" has changed, not died. Sounds like it's going to be a mixture of current designs and the unboxed design but built on existing (or modified) M3/MY lines. This utilizes existing infrastructure which will allow the "Model 2" to enter production earlier than they said before, so early to mid 2025 maybe?

Seems like a solid strategy to me, I'm happy to see this in the PDF!

 

[Causalien]

As long as it’s smaller than the 3/Y and less than $30,000 I think it will sell very well in Europe alone.

Yes I've been waiting for a smaller car forever due to small parking spot and city streets. Will end up costing me more than my M3 because I will spec it to the max.

 

[wipster]

You know how Honda has the CRV and the smaller, cheaper HRV...that's what Tesla is likely doing with the Model Y (creating a smaller/cheaper version). The Model 3 will get a cheaper Model 2 (think 3is to 2 as Accord is to Civic). They say it will be a mix of the old and new platform, but if it is on the same production line I'm guessing it will be a lot more of the "old" (tweaked for some cost savings and to maybe try out a few of the things they have learned) than the new unboxed process which is now exclusively RoboTaxi. They just have to do it profitably since the "unboxed" savings won't be there...(aka expect a smaller battery and less range...which for most folks should be fine).

or....it could just be really decontented versions of existing 3 and Y...which would have to have smaller batteries to save any real $$$

We may hear some about that this afternoon, but then what will be announced on 8/8? I guess we'll hear more about that this afternoon as well.

 

[Knightshade]

Yes. It's cheaper than Uber X in most places. Probably because they want people to try it.

Not here it's not... comfort is routinely a few bucks more... weird. Explains why I never saw that screen though- thanks.

Or like what they said, half and half. Probably best to not bet the bank on unboxed and have this next gen hybrid be a pipe cleaner first. Whenever Tesla goes 100% something, it takes forever to work out the kinks.

Yeah, I really like this.... take what already works, add anything since they were designed they already know how to do (48v, drive by wire, etc) that pulls out costs, and get another million cars produced and sold.... while you take your time figuring out the unboxed kinks for a robotaxi that isn't ready to be driverless anytime soon anyway.

What's this one part actually mean?
2.x M in 2024? What was it in 23?

Naah, says nothing about 2024-- just says they can hit 3M without new factories- not when they'll do so. Even beating 2023s 1.8M will be a moderately heavy lift for 2024.

 

[MD70]

What does this mean?

We have updated our future vehicle line-up to accelerate the launch of new models ahead of our previouslycommunicated start of production in the second half of 2025.These new vehicles, including more affordable models, will utilize aspects of the next generation platform as well asaspects of our current platforms, and will be able to be produced on the same manufacturing lines as our current vehicleline-up.This update may result in achieving less cost reduction than previously expected but enables us to prudently grow ourvehicle volumes in a more capex efficient manner during uncertain times. This would help us fully utilize our currentexpected maximum capacity of close to three million vehicles, enabling more than 50% growth over 2023 productionbefore investing in new manufacturing lines.Our purpose-built robotaxi product will continue to pursue a revolutionary “unboxed” manufacturing strategy

From Page 10

It means they will speed up production by Using existing factories and not building new ones.
And don’t expect a $25,000 vehicle.

 

[wtlloyd]

My memories get muddier with time....but all I know is that I can never predict what the stock price will do with regards to an earnings report.

Sometimes a good earnings report results in a stock price drop for whatever reason....maybe because it wasn't "good enough" for somebody's expectation.
Sometimes a more negative earnings report results in a stock price increase....maybe because it wasn't as bad as somebody expected.
A lot of times I think the stock price moves one way for a day or so after the report, and then changes drection the next day, completely counteracting the original move and going beyond.
And, of course the stock could just stay relatively flat.

I also don't think Tesla releasing info on the new Model 3 Performance should have any real effect on the stock price, mainly because any "good" thing about it can quickly be discounted as "just another expensive toy for the rich!" and then a fresh recounting of how Tesla certainly and most definitely completely cancelled the $25K model and is doomed.

Anyone considering trading on expectations after an earnings report should do themselves the great favor of observing a murmuration flight of starlings. It would be a great help to them.

 

[elasalle]

Each GF has access capacity. So they could slowly decrease 3&Y and give us hatchback etc all using same lines.

Hatchback (EU), longer size M3 (China),
Convertible, 2-door sports, smaller battery/range M3 - US

(make more with less, more options, increase the price ..)

 

[uscbucsfan]

Even the massive naysayers will consider this a smart thing, right, @DarkandStormy? Using the existing lines and even some of the existing models to produce other models is the smart move.

It can also help manage demand peaks and valleys on the existing 3/Y when they alternate making other vehicles.

 

[Causalien]

As expected, Tesla is buying a sugarload of compute to enable FSD and Optimus. This affects cash flow but is a prudent investment, seeing that the AI race is underway including Tesla and other big players.

Some interesting tidbit about this. In one of the interviews he took while eating at Taiwan's night markets (pun). He said he's had to pick and choose winners and losers who will be receiving chips based on what he believes ai needs to go in the future. And Tesla is one of the major ones.

Not everyone who wants to buy a large amount can get their hands on them.

 

[Linkmeup]

This is way better UI than Uber and Lyft lol

 

[MC3OZ]

What does this mean?

We have updated our future vehicle line-up to accelerate the launch of new models ahead of our previouslycommunicated start of production in the second half of 2025.These new vehicles, including more affordable models, will utilize aspects of the next generation platform as well asaspects of our current platforms, and will be able to be produced on the same manufacturing lines as our current vehicleline-up.This update may result in achieving less cost reduction than previously expected but enables us to prudently grow ourvehicle volumes in a more capex efficient manner during uncertain times. This would help us fully utilize our currentexpected maximum capacity of close to three million vehicles, enabling more than 50% growth over 2023 productionbefore investing in new manufacturing lines.Our purpose-built robotaxi product will continue to pursue a revolutionary “unboxed” manufacturing strategy

From Page 10

The most important part is increased production capacity and lower cost vehicles from existing lines.

More vehicle production without major capex, probably because AI training compute is the capex priority.

It is not really clear if these new vehicles will have a Model 3/Y body shape, or how they would be different from 3/Y.

The Robotaxi model is being used to prove / debug the unboxed production process and new factories and lines will be built after this 3 Million per year production capacity is fully ramped.

it is very logical and considering the current macro environment, definitely the right strategy.

 

[NicoV]

All the actual #s are awful...including -2.5B FCF.... but this is what likely spiked the stock

Bleeding cash -$2.5bn FCF.

Driven by 2.7B$ inventory increase and 1B$ AI compute.
Not a bad reason IMO. It would have been much worse if it was caused by selling cars below cost.

 

[gtrplyr1]

I do not think this means model 2 is dead. In fact, the opposite. Model 2 (or whatever you want to call it) will be manufactured in a more compromised way than originally planned but it will be available sooner.

Tesla absolutely needs a lower priced variant for 2 main reasons

1) one does NOT need that much range, especially in europe

2) model 3 is even a large car for European roads.

Imho

Looking forward to CC

 

[Rarity]

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It brings to mind that Musk is bearhugging industries that have long heritage of government interference and control, government expropriation, extreme regulation, censorship, trade controls, overtaxation, labor union capture, etc. Being involved in these industries on a global basis is a contact sport. Atlas Shrugged is a history textbook.

Mostly, I believe that Musk's companies benefit each other. But there can be times when Tesla does not benefit, and can even be harmed. For instance, Musk is busy vigorously shoving Starlink down the throats of many governments, finding common cause with all sorts of different folks. We need to be comfortable with this.

 

[CorneliusXX]

I take it to mean the "Model 2" has changed, not died. Sounds like it's going to be a mixture of current designs and the unboxed design but built on existing (or modified) M3/MY lines. This utilizes existing infrastructure which will allow the "Model 2" to enter production earlier than they said before, so early to mid 2025 maybe?

Seems like a solid strategy to me, I'm happy to see this in the PDF!

I'd say "Model 2" is the same but Tesla has introduced the "Model 2.5" which is a mix of current and new tech to shrink the gap between growth cycles. Makes a lot of sense if they can do it from a manufacturing perspective.

 

[cab]

Even the massive naysayers will consider this a smart thing, right, @DarkandStormy? Using the existing lines and even some of the existing models to produce other models is the smart move.

It can also help manage demand peaks and valleys on the existing 3/Y when they alternate making other vehicles.

The only "negatives" with this approach are:
a.) it won't generate the margins the unboxed process promised
b.) not the moonshot leap that was hoped for over what every other manufacturer does

It is really a pragmatic nod to the environment they/we are currently in and puts to bed the "only robotaxi!" fears even before the call...provided Elon doesn't well, you know. They already have one moonshot (the Cybertruck) right now so that's fine

 

[MC3OZ]

It means Model 2 is dead, instead they'll build lower cost 3/Y variants on existing production lines. These variants might have some newer features, like 48V. They won't be 25k, but probably a few thousand less than current 3/Y. I expect some variants will have body mods, e.g. maybe a Y with a boxier back end to be more SUV-like, maybe a convertible version of 3, etc. Might learn more in the call, but they'll probably use the "no product pre-announcements" dodge.

The Robotaxi will use the new unboxed process.

I would say delayed rather than dead,

But a fairly significant delay, probably around 2-3 years perhaps longer, they probably don't have a definite schedule.

 

[uscbucsfan]

I do think the rumors that the NV91 project being shutdown that Rueters reported sounds true. People who don't have the level of access probably leaked (to the best of their knowledge) that it was cancelled because the lines were being repurposed. They obviously didn't know this piece of information.

 

[Causalien]

I take it to mean the "Model 2" has changed, not died. Sounds like it's going to be a mixture of current designs and the unboxed design but built on existing (or modified) M3/MY lines. This utilizes existing infrastructure which will allow the "Model 2" to enter production earlier than they said before, so early to mid 2025 maybe?

Seems like a solid strategy to me, I'm happy to see this in the PDF!

my skepticism in this method is that it brings in more variables for each line leading to inefficiency.

I seem to remember tesla trying that in the beginning and abandoning the idea.