Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[dc_h]

Never understood this obsession with switching to 2170.

We know Tesla as a company is cell constrained (that is why no power wall) - so why would they want to switch ?

• Because they are using Fremont space that could be used for Model Y or other production.
• Supporting additional parts adds costs to production. Any cell chem updates will be unique for both batteries.
• Shipping cells from Japan adds cost.
• Panasonic lines in Japan are very old, production cost is likely much higher then GF1.
• Pack design using different cells adds to development costs.
  • Model 3 pack is more advanced then SX and allows for more advanced track mode capability.

If Panasonic doesn't get the new high throughput lines online, there is no reason to shift to 2170. If Panasonic can double output with the 3 new lines, they should have enough batteries to support SX, 3 and initial Semi and Roadster pilot. The 3 new lines would have more capacity then Panasonic's Japanese production totals.
I don't have the Excel listing the input costs for GF1, Pana Japan and the opportunity cost for wasting 1/4 or more of the plant space in Fremont making 18650 packs and motors. Combining 3 & Y should save at least a billion versus building a new line in Sparks and it reduces future risk if there is a recession or other external factor reducing demand.

 

[kbM3]

I think we are still paying for the Q1 miss. Institutional investors had to revise downward their estimates for every future quarter. They don't believe Elon's projections, and how can anyone blame them. I think it will take a quarter or two before institutional jumps back in heavy.
Let's face it, Wall St does not think he'll hit 360k deliveries this year.

I think Wall St. also doubts 25% gross margin.

 

[EVNow]

And what is your point? That still won't create excess capacity.

At 35GWh total production, they can make about 500k Model 3s, assuming an average of 65 kWh. That is 10k/wk.

If Tesla is going to find different suppliers for the battery in China, they will have some cells left over for use in power wall.

ps : Once Model Y comes on board, its a different issue. I don't know where Tesla plans to get cells for Model Y.

pps :

If Panasonic can double output with the 3 new lines, they should have enough batteries to support SX, 3 and initial Semi and Roadster pilot. The 3 new lines would have more capacity then Panasonic's Japanese production totals.

They need a lot of cells. With 35GWh, they can make
- 7k/wk of 3 + Power Wall
- 5k/wk of 3+ 5k/wk of Y
- etc

Basically 35GWh covers current needs - but not future needs from Y, Semi (let alone Pickup).

So the question is - what is the priority for getting S/X on to 2170. Because diverting 2170 cells to S/X has lots of opportunity cost.

​

 

[MP3Mike]

Model 3 pack is more advanced then SX and allows for more advanced track mode capability.

I think that track mode has little to nothing to due with the pack design.

 

[powertoold]

I think that track mode has little to nothing to due with the pack design.

Better cooling

 

[ZachShahan]

Please send this to all medias , blogs, forums like cnn, cnbc, others
The shorts make the same when they find bad news.

I can condone that recommendation.

 

[dw4ngg]

huge volatility right now... hmm

 

[Jayjs20]

Quarterly guidance should always be conservative, and they should consistently beat it.

This is how you manage investor confidence in your company.

Ugh, this is basic stuff.

I think Elon does it on purpose sometimes as somewhat of a cross between a challenge and a game. Kinda like his attitude towards traditional advertisement.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

Wow, quite a high volume buy and then sell... Maybe fat fingers by someone?

 

[Pras]

Wow, quite a high volume buy and then sell... Maybe fat fingers by someone?

Time for Larry to average down.

 

[mikevbf]

True, but, press are trying to drive down demand via continued stories about refreshes that are only 3-4 months away. That can hit Tesla's pocket.

Even InsideEVs reprinted the CNBC crap today. SMH

So did TMC blog

 

[Bet the House]

I call bullshit. Riverboat gambler's wouldn't even place that bet.

CPA's wouldn't lose their job; they'd be fired for reckless personal conduct.

Nice try, noobie. Troll elsewhere.

Hey Artful Dodger - I appreciate your contributions to the forum. However, this is not bullshit.

Let me know if you would like to look me up on CPA verify. I can send shoot you a copy of my drivers license to confirm my identify, as well as my CPA license and license number. Or if you prefer to talk to me on the phone and quiz me with a few accounting questions .

Trust me when i tell you though, the CPA exam (and required subsequent audit experience) are not difficult to pass. I know quite a few other CPAs that i would not consider "smart".

 

[Leo9]

New email from Elon, via electrek.

https://electrek.co/2019/05/29/tesl...tch-up-record-quarter-elon-musk-leaked-email/

“While our demand is strong, we have a lot of vehicle deliveries to catch up to in order to have a successful quarter.”

“We also need to address the total cost of getting a car from our factory to the customer. Last quarter, there were many expedites fees and routing inefficiencies that led to higher than expected delivery costs. This makes it much harder for to* break even.”


“Per my earlier email, if we execute well, Q2 will be an all-time record for Tesla vehicle deliveries and an awesome victory!!”

 

[dw4ngg]

Yes, 200k/minute for 2 to 3 minutes.

Any news ? Feels like we are always the last to know …

Must be the internal email that someone else just posted.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

Must be the internal email that someone else just posted.

Honestly, I'm not sure why that'd make it go up. Sure, demand seems fine(though how investors could have been so clueless that it's been fine for a while now is beyond me), but the email makes it sound like they're back to "the wave", and all the inefficiencies that go with it, again.

 

[JusRelax]

New email from Elon, via electrek.

Tesla needs to catch up on deliveries for record quarter, focus on cost, says Elon Musk in leaked email - Electrek

“While our demand is strong, we have a lot of vehicle deliveries to catch up to in order to have a successful quarter.”

“We also need to address the total cost of getting a car from our factory to the customer. Last quarter, there were many expedites fees and routing inefficiencies that led to higher than expected delivery costs. This makes it much harder for to* break even.”


“Per my earlier email, if we execute well, Q2 will be an all-time record for Tesla vehicle deliveries and an awesome victory!!”

Or, for people who don't want to give fred clicks:

Outline - Read & annotate without distractions

 

[Papafox]

Today's whole trading scenario has been a game of whack the mole as shorts scurry to keep TSLA out of the green. Now the game is whack the mole any time he pokes his head above 190. It's ok shorts, the SEC isn't minding the store, you can get away with it.

Edit: A close above 190 would be awesome because it would mean the shortie-machine is failing to control the stock price on a down macro day.

 

[mikevbf]

New email from Elon, via electrek.

https://electrek.co/2019/05/29/tesl...tch-up-record-quarter-elon-musk-leaked-email/

“While our demand is strong, we have a lot of vehicle deliveries to catch up to in order to have a successful quarter.”

“We also need to address the total cost of getting a car from our factory to the customer. Last quarter, there were many expedites fees and routing inefficiencies that led to higher than expected delivery costs. This makes it much harder for to* break even.”


“Per my earlier email, if we execute well, Q2 will be an all-time record for Tesla vehicle deliveries and an awesome victory!!”

What do you make of the "break even" part of the email? Aren't the FUDsters going to have a party with that one and say, "see even Elon says Tesla at best breaks even on their sales."

 

[Navin]

Willing to wager we get either a Moody’s or Goldman (top shelf financial all stars) to say or come out with something negative between now and end of week on the heels of China news. Any takers??

 

[DaveT]

I think the problem Tesla has in giving guidance on delivery numbers. EM wants to set a high bar.

May be Tesla should not give guidance on delivery numbers at all - just profit/cash flow. That is a difficult change now - but can be done when they have a high delivery quarter. Or announce in Q3 ER that from 2020 they won't be providing delivery guidance.

Elon does the same thing with profit. So not sure what not giving guidance on delivery numbers will do.

I think he shouldn't be on the quarterly conference calls. And he shouldn't set guidance in the investor shareholder letter either. Leave it to others, please.