Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[omarsultan]

Presumably the 7k a week target for the end of the year does not include what will be manufactured in China ?

7K for Fremont + 3K for Shanghai by the end of the year

"Model 3 production volumes in Fremont should gradually continue to grow throughout 2019 and reach a sustained rate of 7,000 units per week by the end of the year....Inclusive of Gigafactory Shanghai, where we are initially aiming for 3,000 Model 3 vehicles per week, our goal is to be able to produce 10,000 vehicles per week on a sustained basis."

 

[reddit_tl]

Dudes, the fundamentals are super bullish.

The efficiency is the key and we see that Model 3's efficiency is keep improving and it clears that non-existing threat from the lay-off. It's the economy (of scale), stupid (shorts)!

 

[SebastianR]

Me thinks that it will dawn on Wall St. very soon that the time of "reckless growth & outlandish crazy production number announcements" seem over. BUT the company is now essentially a delivery, efficiency and cash flow machine. Tesla will not need Wall St. any longer. The shorts can pack and go - the financial FUD game won't work any longer.

Model 3 Margins at 25%, which is a mix that includes the Model 3 SR some time in 2019? If I was VW & Co. I would soil my pants....
And then they one-up it by saying that Model Y will be cheaper to build / quicker to ramp and will share some 75% of the parts of the Model 3? This story looks more and more like the Model T to me...

 

[T-Will]

Can someone ask which vehicles V3 Supercharging will support? All Model 3's or only back to a certain date?

"In addition to our continued investment in global charging infrastructure, our engineering team is finalizing plans for the rollout of our V3 Supercharger technology early this year, which will enable significantly faster charge times."

 

[EVNow]

SP is now going up. I won't be surprised if shorts are covering.

 

[winfield100]

The market seems to be recovering after digesting the details. It's a relief as at least TSLA does not drop like a rock after the "miss" ER

except Sleeze Kinky is saying TSLA is down 2% (forgetting it was up ~4%)
(no link, eh)

 

[Electroman]

"Also, by the end of this year we are expecting to start producing Model 3 vehicles at our Gigafactory Shanghai using a complete vehicle production line. "

Complete???

"In the initial phase of Gigafactory Shanghai, we expect to have stamping, paint shop, body joining, and general assembly shops in operation by the end of 2019."

Wow...

Complete as in a full production line as opposed to assembling knock down kits. Except perhaps the battery packs, that may still be manufactured in GF1 and shipped over this year with some future plans to manufacture batteries too.

 

[Lessmog]

I think Starfox and MD70 forget that this is about q4 2018. Not this year. I may be wrong.

Edit Turns out I am wrong! Sorry. Can't read this fast.

 

[traxila]

This is a good report.

The momentum continues to build.

This may be a big year for Tesla, but it is even a bigger years for the Legacies. Whichever company doesn't get it together this year for future production will most probably be washed away by a tsunami of debt as their ICE infrastructure falters and fails. If they all sit on their hands waiting for 2020, Tesla can become a true juggernaut with only average execution on their plans.

As for TSLA the stock.... eh, wait. It will come. Hard not to see these prices as lifetime opportunities. TSLA might be at its best risk reward ratio ever. What exactly are the risks to TSLA right now? That it will only control 25% of the EV market going forward? Don't think you need a leap of faith anymore to buy this stock. Looks like a no-brainer.

I need to think about buying more. I have so much....

Be excited electric car fans! Hard to imagine a better outcome so far with all the obstacles, both external and internal.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

All articles in stock app are calling out “shares slip[ing]”. With the movement right now, those’ll look funny pretty soon.

 

[kyzhk]

My hunch is that in the ER he would explain the "tiny" profit due to significant amount of model 3s in transit to Europe/China.

I got it.

 

[mongo]

That sentence is both impressive and worrying in its obtuseness.

It means they made 1k Model 3s in a day, but it hurt. By the end of the year, making 1k a day will be comfortable.

Complete as in a full production line as opposed to assembling knock down kits. Except perhaps the battery packs, that may still be manufactured in GF1 and shipped over this year with some future plans to manufacture batteries too.

No reason to add cell or pack manufacturing capacity in GF1 for China, when you can just install it in China.

 

[BenPrice]

Every single person authoring the trash articles right now reveal their motivations

This report is better than any other automaker on the planet.

 

[winfield100]

All articles in stock app are calling out “shares slip[ing]”. With the movement right now, those’ll look funny pretty soon.

???????

 

[ZachF]

Me thinks that it will dawn on WS very soon that the time of "reckless growth & crazy production number announcements" seem over. BUT the company is now essentially a delivery, service and cash flow machine. Tesla will not need WS any longer. The shorts can pack and go - the financial FUD game won't work any longer.

Model 3 Margins at 25%, which is a mix that includes the Model 3 SR some time in 2019? If I was VW & Co. I would soil my pants....
And then the one-up it by saying that Model Y will be cheaper to build / quicker to ramp and will share some 75% of the parts of the Model 3? This story looks more and more like the Model T to me...

Operating Cashflow is now running at a $5b/year pace. Giant VW is only slightly higher at $8b. Tesla also now has much higher growth rates, and a lower debt/revenue or debt/OCF.

 

[BenPrice]

Every single person authoring the trash articles right now reveal their motivations

This report is better than any other automaker on the planet.

Time for plan B. Later bros.

 

[KarenRei]

"our engineering team is finalizing plans for the rollout of our V3 Supercharger technology early this year" - YEAY!

 

[Curt Renz]

CNBC will shortly present Tesla bull-bear debate.

 

[hoang51]

Can someone ask which vehicles V3 Supercharging will support? All Model 3's or only back to a certain date?

"In addition to our continued investment in global charging infrastructure, our engineering team is finalizing plans for the rollout of our V3 Supercharger technology early this year, which will enable significantly faster charge times."

You can find an educated discussion about V3 Supercharging here in the mean time while waiting for the ER CC: [Discussion] v3 SuperCharger for Existing Cars : teslamotors

 

[MD70]

I haven’t seen any mention of when the base model 3 will be available?