Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[FrankSG]

Another excellent video from @DaveT :

 

[printf42]

Another almost 20k Robinhood users added TSLA to their portfolios:

View attachment 550239

My theory is still these are new Tesla owners, once you drive the car for a week then look back at your old car, you will see the big picture and buying TSLA became an obvious move.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

I expect a day reckoning will come later in the year for the stock market. When that time comes I I now have the cash to buy more.

You're either correct or there simply are no rules anymore. We shall see!

I see TSLA hovering around $780-980 the next year or two on macro downturn. I'm fine with that, Model Y will take over the world.

 

[JusRelax]

View attachment 550249 Anybody know what happened to TT007 ?

Maybe deleted his account? Weird, he posted just this morning about TSLA being like $2800 by July 2021 or something like that, and was "all in" on it.

EDIT: Yeah, deleted his account. Here's a continuing thread based off of the tweet I was talking about:

https://twitter.com/teslanalyst/status/1270530836018933760

 

[dl003]

You're either correct or there simply are no rules anymore. We shall see!

I see TSLA hovering around $780-980 the next year or two on macro downturn. I'm fine with that, Model Y will take over the world.

As much as I'd like to retire in my 30s, I need macros to take a big dump to reconcile with my world view.

 

[JusRelax]

As much as I'd like to retire in my 30s, I need macros to take a big dump to reconcile with my world view.

My first step to retiring in my 30s is to become someone in my 30s again.

 

[MC3OZ]

I wonder if Elon may use one of the current class 8 truck manufacturers as a contract manufacturer for the Semi. Tesla supplies all the components and they assemble the truck. I see very little IP risk here and it would speed the time to market. I toured the Mack truck plant one time and the assembly is very manual due to the low volume and product variation. It's not at all like high volume car manufacturing. There are only about 200k of these trucks sold per year in the US and the volume of each manufacturer is only 20-90K. Their sales are down and I am sure they would love the assembly business. Sure they may all dream of their own electric truck but they don't have the know how to make it happen. It maybe a good practical solution. Just a thought on how this may play out but understand this goes against Tesla's nature to vertically integrate. Keep in mind the value is in the components going into the truck, batteries, motors, etc not so much in the assembly.

I did think about that, my hunch is they want maximum strength for minimum weight.. so they can offset part of the weight of the battery by reducing the weight of the frame and cab.

The frame needs to be strong and lightweight, the cab only needs to be lightweight and have sufficient strength..

 

[Artful Dodger]

Electrek - hour ago: Ford delays F-150 electric pickup truck to 'mid-2022' - Electrek

Ford's electric F-150 pickup truck is 2 year away, and has been for 12 years:

Cheers!

 

[Mike Smith]

Today:
"We are electrifying and we’re a brand people trust."
-Jim Farley, Ford CEO

Also today:
Ford recalls 2.15 million U.S. vehicles for potentially faulty door latches

 

[Krugerrand]

As much as I'd like to retire in my 30s, I need macros to take a big dump to reconcile with my world view.

I would prefer you just changed your world view and not rain on the parade.

 

[SO16]

Ford's electric F-150 pickup truck is 2 year away, and has been for 12 years:

Cheers!

The Cybertruck is going to have extremely Amazing sales. Not a bad endorsement from someone you may have heard of...

Twitter

“I need that truck. I NEED it.”

 

[Stretch2727]

I did think about that, my hunch is they want maximum strength for minimum weight.. so they can offset part of the weight of the battery by reducing the weight of the frame and cab.

The frame needs to be strong and lightweight, the cab only needs to be lightweight and have sufficient strength..

Contract manufacturing is about building to the OEM (Tesla) specs. Tesla would 100% control the design including the frame and cab. These may even be components supplied by a Tesla supplier or made by Tesla.

 

[Artful Dodger]

I'm aware of how it works. Just saying we're well above the price point for the 2nd tranche, so when the next operational milestone is hit, there's a good chance the average is ready or just about ready.

Yeah could be, but I don't think so. My estimate for today is the 6-mth avg Market Cap is $105.29B and the 1-mth avg Market Cap is $156.52B

Given the way the 6-mth moving average is climbing, it'll be some time yet before Elon qualifies for his 2nd tranche based on Mkt Cap (req'd $150B for both 6 mths and most recent month).

Cheers!

 

[Mike Smith]

I wonder if Elon may use one of the current class 8 truck manufacturers as a contract manufacturer for the Semi. Tesla supplies all the components and they assemble the truck. I see very little IP risk here and it would speed the time to market. I toured the Mack truck plant one time and the assembly is very manual due to the low volume and product variation. It's not at all like high volume car manufacturing. There are only about 200k of these trucks sold per year in the US and the volume of each manufacturer is only 20-90K. Their sales are down and I am sure they would love the assembly business. Sure they may all dream of their own electric truck but they don't have the know how to make it happen. It maybe a good practical solution. Just a thought on how this may play out but understand this goes against Tesla's nature to vertically integrate. Keep in mind the value is in the components going into the truck, batteries, motors, etc not so much in the assembly.

The reason current volume is low is that they're only selling replacement trucks for those that need to be retired. If Tesla offers a much lower cost per mile then the industry will be wanting to replace a much larger part of the total fleet.

 

[pz1975]

This forum needs a "disappointed" button.

Or “not surprised”.

 

[Krugerrand]

Or “not surprised”.

Not helpful
Interesting
Dumb
Wha..?
A million times this
Get off my lawn/island
Go away
Both funny and love
All of the above
None of the above
Wrong thread
Wrong forum

 

[MC3OZ]

The reason current volume is low is that they're only selling replacement trucks for those that need to be retired. If Tesla offers a much lower cost per mile then the industry will be wanting to replace a much larger part of the total fleet.

While that is true, I don't think they need high volumes from Day 1.

Most large fleet owners will evaluate a handful of trucks for a year or 2, perhaps even suggest further improvements..

But after that evaluation period, bulk orders for lots of trucks are a very likely outcome..

Texas is a better location for mass production, but will take time to set up.

 

[MP3Mike]

I'm aware of how it works. Just saying we're well above the price point for the 2nd tranche, so when the next operational milestone is hit, there's a good chance the average is ready or just about ready.

Tesla has already hit the second operational milestone, so it is just a matter of the stock price averages to hit for the second tranche.

 

[dl003]

I would prefer you just changed your world view and not rain on the parade.

Come on, islands gonna get much cheaper
I'd very much like to change my view, if I can see a way the Fed balance sheet and the national debt can resolve themselves. Not gonna bore you with all over pesky things that keep me up at night.

 

[Thekiwi]

I notice @KarenRei posted this on twitter: https://twitter.com/enn_nafnlaus/status/1270878910507626496

On Tuesday, Saudi Arabia announced approval for the commercial import of electric cars for sale in the country.

Saudi Arabia's $28Bn Passenger Car Market, 2024 | Segmented by Vehicle Type, Fuel Type, Transmission Type & Region

The Saudi automotive market is bigger than most people picture, growing rapidly, and higher-end.

Saudis import around 1 million cars per year (about half that of the UK). The current market (2019) is worth around $11B per year, but is projected to grow rapidly to $28B in 2024, thanks in part due to the elimination of the ban on women driving.

How Saudis take to electric vehicles is yet to be seen. But one certainly hopes the answer to that is "well". Saudi Arabia has the potential to transition from an oil powerhouse to a solar powerhouse in a post-oil world, and their vehicle fleet to electric alongside it.​

“$11 Billion market” divided by “1 million cars” = $11,000 average selling price. Either one of those numbers is WAY off, or they are all buying fiat pintos (which I doubt).