Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[humbaba]

It seemed to me that is was running:
10 Move toward the gap *
20 Stop
30 If Something_Moving == 1 goto 20
40 Goto 10

*Lidar's strength...

To be fair it did a lane change to go around the construction. But it clearly had an issue after that, either with detecting that the driving lane was clear, or hunting for an opportunity to go back. My bet is on the latter. What would be interesting would be to have a construction spot like that with a brief break followed by another. A human driver would naturally drive past both, but I'm betting GM Cruise would return to its original lane, then try to get back out. While doing so "works" as autonomy, it isn't very effective.

 

[Thekiwi]

I’m wondering about the 1.5 million estimate Elon gave in the Ark podcast for 2021 vehicle production.

Presuming Tesla has 3 vehicle factories by 2021, what’s are everyone’s thoughts on the production split?

Does a third/third/third split sound reasonable between Fremont (S,X,3,R2) / Sparks (Y) / Shanghai (3,Y) at 500k units each?

(The 3 million in 2023 estimate seems like it would require at least a European GF to be fully up and running in the next 48 months)

 

[AlexS]

so guys what do you think, will we get another massive short attack before bond payment on March 1st? Or it is last time to get in in 300 range?

 

[brian45011]

Then again I ask you to explain me why TSLA writes:
TSLA IR said:
In May 2013, we issued 1.5% convertible senior notes due 2018, and in March/April 2014, we issued 0.25% convertible senior notes due 2019 and 1.25% convertible senior notes due 2021 (collectively the Notes). These Notes have a dilutive effect on EPS while the Notes are outstanding, but once converted or settled, there is anticipated to be no actual dilution as we entered into bond hedges in May 2013 and March/April 2014 that are intended to offset the actual dilution related to these Notes.
Maybe @brian45011 can offer some input.

My apologies Gentlemen, but I have not followed the "He said, (s)He said."

My thought about the excerpt Schonelucht quoted is that it should be interpreted in the context that Tesla has consistently stated that the principal amount of all converts would be converted/ redeemed with cash, i.e. any value above the initial conversion value would be funded by the hedge writers, so that no dilutive additional shares would have to be issued/registered.

At this point, the discussion may be moot, since with five trading days left for the early conversion VWAP pricing, there is no way Volume Weighted Average share Price will exceed ~$360. Redemptions ($920 million) will be totally using cash.

FWIW, notwithstanding Tesla's assertion that the principal values of 2018 convertible notes would be settled using cash, many were settled using shares in private, bi-lateral negotiations using SEC registration exemptions. (Also, the 2025 junk bonds were marketed using that rule exemption). The difference between the 2018 notes and all of TSLA's/SCTY's other converts (with the possible exception of SCTY zeros) is they are all far below the conversion ratio. As long as the notes stay below the conversion ratio, the holders' return is limited to the coupon rate.

 

[Sean Wagner]

Interesting how the takes greatly differ on the Cruise vid. That was unexpected.
Just to reiterate, the low view count seems remarkable to me, with wider implications.
I'll presently end my comments about this here - there's a dedicated thread.

 

[brian45011]

Nothing wrong at all with Argonne researching this. However if you look at how the demand for lithium compound used for batteries will rise over the coming 20 years, it's clear that it will be quite a long time before recycled lithium can account for more than a small fraction of needed supply versus development of the various mineable sources like spodumene, lithium brines and clay deposits. Development project financing is the limiting factor in how fast these are developed into new supply. Which means once demand presses against supply, price goes up and more Li projects get funded and in a few years balances the supply vs demand.
Each GWh of Tesla batteries produced each year will not need to be recycled for 10+ years. Longer if older batteries are retasked to less demanding storage applications.

Figure out which company has a cost-effective Li-Ion recovery process to re-use the constituent compounds and you will be wealthy. Umicore seems to be leading the pack

 

[anthonyj]

so guys what do you think, will we get another massive short attack before bond payment on March 1st? Or it is last time to get in in 300 range?

Short interest has been going down. Tesla is profitable, markets are up big time and Tesla is stuck at $300 with no buyers in sight. There has to be extremely significant news to leave $300 forever... Tesla is just growing into its valuation

 

[printf42]

OT

Just saw this on Twitter as one of the top tweet for #TSLA
ToolGrinder on Twitter

Turns out $TSLA increased tooling life (decreasing depreciation) on the Model S and X by 30% to boost margins during 2018.

They’re complaining Tesla updated projected Model S&X tooling life from 250k to 325k in Q4 2018, suggesting this was done to lower the depreciation rate to boost numbers.

But:
IIRC Tesla delivered well over 250k model S&X accumulatively as of end of 2018, without major refresh or retooling.
So basically many(likely most) part of model S&X production are now using free tooling which depreciation was already accounted for.

And, TSLAQ feels they need to point that out so everyone notices, I am more than shocked by their level of reasoning.

Did I miss anything or mis-understood this depreciation thing.

 

[KarenRei]

Just the right spot to bring the following vid up [so few views!] [also, the ark interview was informative]:

Cruise Automation: San Francisco Maneuvers | 3,116 views | Published on Jan 25, 2019
Our driverless cars constantly encounter challenging situations on the streets in San Francisco. The driving seen in this video is 100% autonomous. This video is sped up approximately 2.5x. Do you have what it takes to solve challenging problems like this?

Is this a joke? The whole thing is heavily clipped. I was thinking it was going to be a video made using the trick of "do a hundred runs, publish the uninterrupted video of your best run" (Tesla has been guilty of this sin before). But it's not even that; it's a "piece together your best 30-second clips" video.

 

[AlexS]

Short interest has been going down. Tesla is profitable, markets are up big time and Tesla is stuck at $300 with no buyers in sight. There has to be extremely significant news to leave $300 forever... Tesla is just growing into its valuation

You think March 1st is too small of a news? Maybe you are right. But I tend to think otherwise.

 

[Thekiwi]

You think March 1st is too small of a news? Maybe you are right. But I tend to think otherwise.

There cant be that many idiots who are going to be shocked that Tesla will pay its March 1st payment. How many people are there out there who cant do simple math of Telsa having 4x the cash needed to cover the bond payment?

 

[ReflexFunds]

Agreed. FSD this year is never going to happen. I don't understand why Elon continues to make these kind of "guesses"...

Elon clearly said he expects to have code for human supervised driving in all driving scenarios by the end of this year (this is not FSD!), but he said it is unknown when this will get regulatory approval. He said by the end of 2020 he expects Tesla to have enough accuracy for driving without human supervision (this is FSD), but again it is unknown when this will get regulatory approval.

 

[anthonyj]

You think March 1st is too small of a news? Maybe you are right. But I tend to think otherwise.

Everyone knows that Tesla will make their bond payment. Only trolls think that they won’t. Buyers are gun shy since the stock tends to make sharp moves downward for almost no medium/long term reason. “Longs” and institutions are selling rallies and buying dips. The market wants hard evidence that there isn’t a demand problem, the market wants to surprise with a partnership with a larger company to prove Tesla’s legitimacy. The market wants hard evidence that Model Y exists, and that FSD will become a reality. It’s silly. But that’s what gets TSLA out from the $300 magnet

 

[Cherry Wine]

Elon Musk on Twitter

4000 cars headed to Europe per Elon.

Edit: also, posted at 4:02pm. Sort of a funny coincidence? Lol.

 

[mershaw2001]

Elon Musk on Twitter

4000 cars headed to Europe per Elon.

Edit: also, posted at 4:02pm. Sort of a funny coincidence? Lol.

Is there any way to see which boat that is, or what day that is? How do we know whether it is from today or a while ago?

 

[Alphacrux]

Elon clearly said he expects to have code for human supervised driving in all driving scenarios by the end of this year (this is not FSD!), but he said it is unknown when this will get regulatory approval. He said by the end of 2020 he expects Tesla to have enough accuracy for driving without human supervision (this is FSD), but again it is unknown when this will get regulatory approval.

+1 year for “Elon Time” on the ‘enough accuracy for driving without human supervision’ but I don’t doubt the same end result.

 

[Subhuman]

Elon Musk on Twitter

4000 cars headed to Europe per Elon.

Edit: also, posted at 4:02pm. Sort of a funny coincidence? Lol.

Teslasq.org better update their website with another Tesla storage location! Demand has collapsed! Run for the hills!

 

[M3Rider]

Elon Musk on Twitter

4000 cars headed to Europe per Elon.

Edit: also, posted at 4:02pm. Sort of a funny coincidence? Lol.

Wow, also said 500k cars in 2019.
That does not match guidance of 360-400k.

 

[Wnuk]

He may be anticipating China production in those numbers?

 

[MarcusMaximus]

Wow, also said 500k cars in 2019.
That does not match guidance of 360-400k.
View attachment 378915

Technically, he said produce and guidance was for delivery, but hopefully he’s not counting on 100-140k in inventory on Jan 1...