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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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How many of the longs sold when the SP was at $375 ? We were excited that finally Tesla was breaking out and we are headed to 400+.
Fair point. Wait, so past performance doesn't guarantee future performance? Whaaaaa???

I guess I'm a lead foot :oops: because I just ran these numbers yesterday for my utility bill and local gasoline price and came out at 94mpg dollar equivalent. In my defense, I've only had my MR since December so a lot of the driving was in very cold weather. The lowest I've calculated was ~75mpg dollar equivalent so its been improving at least. My last car was nominally 30-35mpg but was old and what I actually observed was 25-30mpg.

But I'm with you: I think framing the efficiency in dollar equivalency gets the point across better than a (perceived as) artificial MPGe. When someone says, "that must be expensive to drive" or "I guess you have a really high electrical bill now" I can point at this and they immediately understand that my energy costs have gone down -- and the efficiency is far beyond what is achieved with a gasoline powered engine.
Definitely. I just did my taxes, and compared to a BMW M3 (which is both an equivalent car to my P3D and what I would have purchased otherwise) I saved about $1100 in fuel cost from August - December. That includes a few track days and the coldest winter in a decade.
 
Products like the Bolt and other EVs with massive amount of compromises just drive people who wants EV to buy a Tesla more and more. If you're the only company that takes it seriously..why would you buy from a different brand? Honestly it'll confuse your friend if you ever tell them you bought an Ipace or a Kona EV. People would be like "wtf is that?..oh it's electric, so why not buy a Tesla?".

There was a time when people would question why you didn't buy an iPhone but got a HTC slide or something. Now you can actually have an answer (hence Iphone sales are dropping).

Until you can actually answer this question when asked, Tesla will not have competition.

I think that's a little inside the Tesla bubble and a bit of Tesla snobbery which is not conducive to EV adoption of course. I know at least a dozen people that refuse to buy a Tesla product due to a fear of stability and some as they think Elon is a concern. My neighbor thinks he's reckless and refuses to buy any Tesla product. You can disagree with this but this is a valid concern for many buyers and also based in reality and average consumers run from these headlines. The Bolt is a pretty good EV for many people excellent as a small city car and has become very popular with some ride share companies. These cars are leased with free charging which makes them very attractive vs driving an ICE. In addition there are benefits to GM so I don't think GM is out to kill Tesla with this car and they certainly can do better if they choose to do so. Consider the nonsense around the RAV4 G2 EV, the PR was that Toyota would gain EV tech from Tesla which was utter nonsense. That was a mutual back scratching event for green washing, CARB credits, and NUMI solutions. Both parties one on paper. I always laugh when people think that Toyota could not compete in the EV space when they choose. I saw prototype EVs from the a big German automaker before there was a Model S or any production EV on the market. Many companies have had development for a long time but various reasons kept them from entering "all in".
 
99.9% of car grills are plastic.

Ok, agreed, a lot more plastic than metal these days.

My point evolves from my experience owning since '82 a Mazda RX-7 which has no grill at all on the front. It is more slopped than the Model 3 such that there is more of a glancing impact by gravel. I got all the paint protection I could get at the time on that paint but it was worthless pretty much in terms of preventing chips. And I understand that paint has improved a lot since '82.

When it is paint vs gravel at high speeds the paint mostly loses. These modern PPFs are multi-layer and clearly under development. Modern EVs will last more years than ICE vehicles so there is going to be more exposure and challenges for the surface coating whether on metal or plastic.

Repainting is an valid option at a similar cost. PPFs are likely to go down in cost over time and have additional features added.

I wish we could get PPF from the factory but painting is much faster generally so that is what we get until the "flufferbot" technology can be used to apply PPF.;)

Around here there is gravel on the roads from growing potholes and rock salt as well as all sorts of chunks of cars falling off. Until I can get the deflector shields installed, my poor Model 3 paint is naked without a little PPF to divert the incoming insults of modern life in the fast lane.
 
Now over 9000 deliveries so far in Norway+Netherlands+Spain this quarter. Not sure what the ratio of those 3 to the rest of Europe will be in sales but I would guess at least the same amount in the rest of Europe as that was the case in February. Guessing we'll have about 20-25k total deliveries in Europe this Q.

EV registration statistics for The Netherlands
 
Ok, agreed, a lot more plastic than metal these days.

My point evolves from my experience owning since '82 a Mazda RX-7 which has no grill at all on the front. It is more slopped than the Model 3 such that there is more of a glancing impact by gravel. I got all the paint protection I could get at the time on that paint but it was worthless pretty much in terms of preventing chips. And I understand that paint has improved a lot since '82.

When it is paint vs gravel at high speeds the paint mostly loses. These modern PPFs are multi-layer and clearly under development. Modern EVs will last more years than ICE vehicles so there is going to be more exposure and challenges for the surface coating whether on metal or plastic.

Repainting is an valid option at a similar cost. PPFs are likely to go down in cost over time and have additional features added.

I wish we could get PPF from the factory but painting is much faster generally so that is what we get until the "flufferbot" technology can be used to apply PPF.;)

Around here there is gravel on the roads from growing potholes and rock salt as well as all sorts of chunks of cars falling off. Until I can get the deflector shields installed, my poor Model 3 paint is naked without a little PPF to divert the incoming insults of modern life in the fast lane.
I doubt you will ever see PPF applied at a manufacturer. Bottom line is that for the vast majority of folks, the clearcoat on a factory paintjob is more than sufficient. Let's face it, I don't think Bugatti and Ferrari even offer it and they are WAY more high end than a Model 3. If you need it...get it (I did). If you are like most and don't need it...save the money.

Dan
 
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I doubt you will ever see PPF applied at a manufacturer. Bottom line is that for the vast majority of folks, the clearcoat on a factory paintjob is more than sufficient. Let's face it, I don't think Bugatti and Ferrari even offer it and they are WAY more high end than a Model 3. If you need it...get it (I did). If you are like most and don't need it...save the money.

Dan

Ford offers it as an option on the front of some models from the factory.
 
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Any thoughts on why 7 months after starting to install PV panels on GF1 Tesla has stopped adding to the first section?
PV on building appears to be only 10% complete. I thought Panasonic was producing substantial volume of older style
panels at GF2.
They are probably waiting for their powerwalls. Lol. It does seem odd, since the solar payback time would be short enough with them making their own panels.
 
So how is Lyft at $25bn and Tesla at $48bn now?!?
Because its COO was Tesla's VP of Sales & Service?

More seriously, I think the two companies should think about a partnership/merger: Tesla gets VIP access to the Lyft network - making the Tesla's fleet available for ride/rental - and Lyft drivers can lease Teslas at favorable rates - helping making Lyft the most ecofriendly ride hailing co.

The more time it takes for Tesla to launch its "shared fleet", the harder it will have to fight against Uber, Google & co.
 
I think that's a little inside the Tesla bubble and a bit of Tesla snobbery which is not conducive to EV adoption of course. I know at least a dozen people that refuse to buy a Tesla product due to a fear of stability and some as they think Elon is a concern. My neighbor thinks he's reckless and refuses to buy any Tesla product. You can disagree with this but this is a valid concern for many buyers and also based in reality and average consumers run from these headlines. The Bolt is a pretty good EV for many people excellent as a small city car and has become very popular with some ride share companies. These cars are leased with free charging which makes them very attractive vs driving an ICE. In addition there are benefits to GM so I don't think GM is out to kill Tesla with this car and they certainly can do better if they choose to do so. Consider the nonsense around the RAV4 G2 EV, the PR was that Toyota would gain EV tech from Tesla which was utter nonsense. That was a mutual back scratching event for green washing, CARB credits, and NUMI solutions. Both parties one on paper. I always laugh when people think that Toyota could not compete in the EV space when they choose. I saw prototype EVs from the a big German automaker before there was a Model S or any production EV on the market. Many companies have had development for a long time but various reasons kept them from entering "all in".

I agree. It’s a valid concern that so many people believe the crap spewed by the media, that so many people don’t do their own independent research and investigation, and that so many people make decisions based on illogical, non-critical thinking thought processes.

It’s therefore not a surprise why we’re in this human-induced planetary predicament.
 
Because its COO was Tesla's VP of Sales & Service?

More seriously, I think the two companies should think about a partnership/merger: Tesla gets VIP access to the Lyft network - making the Tesla's fleet available for ride/rental - and Lyft drivers can lease Teslas at favorable rates - helping making Lyft the most ecofriendly ride hailing co.

Tesla would get nothing out of this. If anything, Tesla could sign a deal to sell or lease a significant number of cars to Lyft, but they would only do this at a discount if they are demand constrained. I don't know that Lyft would want to buy cars from somebody who obviously aims to compete with them though. If Tesla manage to deliver on self driving cars, they will just launch their own Tesla Network and get more cars and people on their network than Lyft almost immediately.

I actually think Tesla should release Tesla Network before they achieve self driving. The more people that drive in a Tesla, the more people that will get addicted (in fact this could be some justification for Tesla selling some cars to Lyft at a discount).

A ride hailing service could also be combined with a test drive program, which Elon seemed to show interest in on Twitter. I'm sure many Tesla owners would be willing to allow potential customers to drive their cars, particularly if they are paid by Tesla to do it.

Obviously there would not yet be a huge number of Tesla owners willing to drive for Tesla network, so it would lack the critical mass of Uber/Lyft and would have to be pre-booked trips only and subject to availability. Could definitely charge a premium to Uber/Lyft though, and would probably be profitable for Tesla given they would not spend on marketing/driver acquisition costs.
 
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I always laugh when people think that Toyota could not compete in the EV space when they choose.

Toyota is am important company. Here is a link from Toyota at CES in 2017. Their research head starts talking at 14:30 in. It is worth a view it you want to see how serious Toyota is. Make your own conclusions.

 
One thing to keep in mind:

Analcyst (props to whoever here first used that term) ratings are inflated and self-reinforced. When a Wall Street analcyst issues a Buy rating, the market usually reacts positively and the stock goes up, giving the appearance that the Buy call was a good one. Yay, stars for the analcyst! When the analcyst issues a Sell rating, it often causes the stock to drop, giving the appearance that the Sell call was a good one. Yay! More stars for the Analcyst!

They can also tag on each other, issuing upgrades/downgrades when other analysts do it, which further bolsters the appearance that they have magical predictive capabilities.

It's stupid.
 
Tesla would get nothing out of this. If anything, Tesla could sign a deal to sell or lease a significant number of cars to Lyft, but they would only do this at a discount if they are demand constrained. I don't know that Lyft would want to buy cars from somebody who obviously aims to compete with them though. If Tesla manage to deliver on self driving cars, they will just launch their own Tesla Network and get more cars and people on their network than Lyft almost immediately.
Even if Tesla owners did not participate in an autonomous ride-sharing network, Tesla is in a practically unique position to profit from autonomous ride sharing due to the vertical integration: if they have demand issues any excess production can be used to expand the autonomous fleet. This helps keep margins high due to the economy of scale and the ride sharing service doesn't have to buy vehicles above cost from a manufacturer.

I say "practically unique" because GM could (at least in principle) do the same if they got Cruise to a functional level without a safety driver. The caveat for GM is that they are dependent on LG for making an EV and so would be disadvantaged compared to Tesla. The savings from their plant closures should be funneled immediately into in-sourcing EV production, but the company very obviously lacks the vision to do so.