Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Dan Detweiler]

Because there will still be a lot of people who still want to own their own cars for the foreseeable future and we would still want the option of owning the best EV. Providing those car will still help with the mission.

I guess my post sort of assumes that the mission has already been won. I certainly wouldn't expect to see anything like this before the next 5-10 years. It's just a thought.

Dan

 

[Boomer19]

trying to step into a few nov 315c if it stays relatively fixed today, and go from there. down more, add a few. down a lot over coming weeks, reassess.

also sell a few jan21 200p

any thoughts

 

[mongo]

Better get 'em while their hot. I have seen a couple of different videos that bring up an interesting thought. At what point does Tesla not sell cars to the public anymore? Granted this is based on several rather large assumptions, but if true Level 5 is achieved, and the Tesla Network truly does come to pass, and Tesla has created a huge fleet of corporate owned cars through lease returns, and their profit margins on the network use is what Elon claimed they could be at the Autonomy Day, then why would they want the hassle and turmoil that surrounds selling cars to the public? The profits from the network would be so huge that it would seem beneficial to just make cars without pedals or steering wheel and just make them as they needed to supplement their network fleet. Same goes for the truck. Make a truck that is nothing but a rolling bed with no cab whatsoever and then just put them on the network so people could use them as they need to haul something, get lumber, whatever you do with a truck. Tesla Semi? Boy, what could that do to the trucking industry if there were just a bunch of Tesla Semis out there for rent as shipping companies, or even private people needed to use them.

Might not be able to buy a Tesla at some point. I know...crazy, but it could happen. Something to think about.

Dan

Two words: child seats.

 

[Artful Dodger]

OT

Teensey-weansey volume so far: only 200K in first 15 min?

 

[Sean Wagner]

The flip side is that Tesla will have to execute well in the premium class, to protect their U.S. market share from Rivian. (But for years the main competition should be ICE makes, not other EV makers.)

It would be really good for Tesla to have a nascent domestic EV "industry" at its side - while noone is going to displace it from top dog position in the US anytime soon, a successfully heterogenous cluster will widen and deepen US expertise in the field, enable more seedling experimentation, and attract people on both sides of the gates of enterprises. Tastes vary and often meander down peculiar paths.

 

[mekberg]

That doesn’t make sense to me. This group of people have a plan, have always had a plan, and are executing the plan just as fast as humanly possibly.

This type of change takes more than a couple of months to execute. Besides the many tooling, casting, production line etc... changes, there also had to be some simulation and testings.

I wasn't implying it only took a couple months - sorry for not being clear. They could have expected the pull-forward far in advance and timed everything accordingly.

 

[Anstandswauwau]

That unnecessarily excludes addressable demand from customers who are perfectly fine and familiar with the current S/X interior but want a more future-proof power train, both in terms of performance and in terms of charging speed.

True, but I believe this certain group of customers is way smaller than the "let's buy the latest and greatest"-audience. Again, I think the spec bump is nice and necessary but it's a weird in between solution for a problem that doesn't *really* exist. At least not at scale.

Just speaking for myself, I certainly wouldn't buy a 75-100k car if a design refresh is right around the corner. I mean, maybe I'll like it even more than the current one? How am I supposed to know that right now?

 

[Krugerrand]

Dry powder loaded. Trying to figure out if I want to play the MMD today or wait until after earnings. FOMO and fear duking it out in my brain right now.

I’m a decisive, quick decision maker most of the time because I’ve honed listening to my instincts. Whenever the decision doesn’t come quick and clear, or I find the voices in my head talking over each other, that’s when I know to do nothing.

May or may not apply to you, especially if you’re a Gemini.

 

[Dan Detweiler]

Two words: child seats.

Sorry, I don't follow. The TN cars would certainly still be able to accept child seats.

Dan

 

[Artful Dodger]

Really? I missed that they were only charged to 94%. Are you sure? That would put a 100%-0% run at ~432 miles.

That's what they wrote. But even a 90% discharge (95=>5) should be avoided when possible. Note also they didn't use autopilot all the way, so they lost efficiency in driving style for the last half of the trip.

 

[SebastianR]

Interesting jumps this morning - overall lots of noise, yet no movement (yet?).

On a different note and to think about future capex for Superchargers in Europe: does anybody know if the refreshed Model S/X have CCS in Europe? That would make sense but also pose interesting challenges...

 

[mekberg]

I’m a decisive, quick decision maker most of the time because I’ve honed listening to my instincts. Whenever the decision doesn’t come quick and clear, or I find the voices in my head talking over each other, that’s when I know to do nothing.

May or may not apply to you, especially if you’re a Gemini.

I'm Aries and impulsive AF.

 

[Buddyroe]

I am shocked that the range increase isn't headline news today. To me, this is MUCH bigger news than one quarter's earnings, the SEC fight, or the robo fleet promise. The major thing the shorts and haters have said for years is that range anxiety is the biggest reason EVs will never be accepted by the masses. Well, 370 miles, while not the end-all, is massive in my mind. It's getting close to the range of the ICE counterparts. Oh, and did I mention 26 minute charge time? This is HUGE news.

I'm just totally shocked that the media and analysts don't get how important that 370 number is. Do you realize what Tesla just did to the competition with their 204 and 234 mile range? I mean heck, even the standard range X and S get 250 and 285 respectively.

 

[jerry33]

Sorry, I don't follow. The TN cars would certainly still be able to accept child seats.

Dan

I think he means that there would have to be child seats, which adds cost to the TN car (if you are using your car as a TN car).

 

[MP3Mike]

That's what they wrote.

Where? I can't find it...

 

[Krugerrand]

Better get 'em while their hot. I have seen a couple of different videos that bring up an interesting thought. At what point does Tesla not sell cars to the public anymore? Granted this is based on several rather large assumptions, but if true Level 5 is achieved, and the Tesla Network truly does come to pass, and Tesla has created a huge fleet of corporate owned cars through lease returns, and their profit margins on the network use is what Elon claimed they could be at the Autonomy Day, then why would they want the hassle and turmoil that surrounds selling cars to the public? The profits from the network would be so huge that it would seem beneficial to just make cars without pedals or steering wheel and just make them as they needed to supplement their network fleet. Same goes for the truck. Make a truck that is nothing but a rolling bed with no cab whatsoever and then just put them on the network so people could use them as they need to haul something, get lumber, whatever you do with a truck. Tesla Semi? Boy, what could that do to the trucking industry if there were just a bunch of Tesla Semis out there for rent as shipping companies, or even private people needed to use them.

Might not be able to buy a Tesla at some point. I know...crazy, but it could happen. Something to think about.

Dan

This Tesla not selling to the public has been mentioned 812 times. That simply doesn’t fit the plan nor Elon Musk’s style. He wants everyone to be able to afford an EV. EVERYONE.

In the end, like when all of us here are arguing on Hell’s forum and TN has taken over the planet, perhaps then people will simply no longer have a need to own a personal car but for nostalgia’s sake. But it won’t come about because Tesla ‘won’t’ sell an individual a car.

 

[Dan Detweiler]

I think he means that there would have to be child seats, which adds cost to the TN car (if you are using your car as a TN car).

Why would it have to have child seats as long as the user could mount their seats in the car?

Dan

 

[Jo-]

Two words: child seats.

Families with kids are often overlooked in all this, I agree; however, Elon added the rear-facing seats to the original S because he has 5 kids. Same reason the Y has a 7 seat option, I think...there’s a big minivan/Odyssey market, just come visit me in the Midwest suburbs!
I am hopeful he will address this with autonomy. It would be awhile before regulators say your baby doesn’t need a car seat...I ordered a 7 seat Y yesterday (coming from an Odyssey), and would certainly leave in a car seat “base” for people to use if they need it. Interested to see how that’s addressed!

 

[schonelucht]

Either they were surprised by the ~50% drop in S/X deliveries and Raven was simply not ready in time, or they expected it but wanted to combine the S/X power train refresh with the HW3 upgrade.

The simplest reason makes most sense for me : it took a few weeks longer than expected and by then they had missed the window of making the switch early in the quarter. May also explain some of the weird shuffles in the S/X lineup in Q1 : if they had planned to switch over by Q1 but then had to extend for a quarter they may not have had the necessary components for continue producing the old S/X. So what do you do, when you know you can only produce half of what you intended to do? You take stock of what you can produce and stop selling models with the lowest margins. But then it turned out that by a combination of Model 3 being too good and S/X too expensive, demand fell so severely that they had to reverse course. So what do you do then? You make the higher margin cars a bit more attractive, for example by bundling more software options. Let's see what production guidance for this quarter is on the S/X. If my speculation is correct, that should quickly revert to levels from 2018.

Appreciate your words from before btw and no offense taken. We' re all very/too opiniated down here. Myself included for sure.

 

[jeewee3000]

trying to step into a few nov 315c if it stays relatively fixed today, and go from there. down more, add a few. down a lot over coming weeks, reassess.

also sell a few jan21 200p

any thoughts

I am bullish for this ER since the stock has been so depressed based on doom-and-gloom Q1 predictions (and the SEC-sugar).

Whilst just holding my core position, I invested in jan 2020 call options with a strike price of $420. I know, far OTM, but my intention is selling these by Q2 ER at the latest.