Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[CorneliusXX]

The energy storage revolution, which has already started, will definitely be accelerated with the AES 400MWh battery storage in Long Beach, CA.

The battery storage is provided by Fluence, not Tesla, unfortunately, but just the fact it's being built will force others to adapt or die.

AES breaks ground on energy storage project in Long Beach, California

Energy storage will take care of itself. All the battery packs from every EV produced will need to be disposed of at the end of their useful life for EVs. They will either be recycled or repurposed.

If battery tech advances fast enough that it is economic to recycle them into superior batteries this will be the outcome, otherwise they will just be repurposed for storage.

With every new EV produced there is latent storage capacity increasing along with it.

 

[JusRelax]

Tesla Gigafactory 3 to be supported by Industrial Park in Shanghai, says official

"Having an industrial park in relatively close proximity to Gigafactory 3 will make Tesla’s electric car production much more efficient."

 

[Green Pete]

Im surprised I don't see this come up more often but I feel like ~3 years ago it became very obvious that autonomy was the future of the car industry. I know that an autonomous electric vehicle taxi is going to be far cheaper to operate than an ice one, but it feels like the defining success of the future of the automotive industry is going to be autonomy rather that electric. Car manufacturers that don't adapt to a market where the demand for cars drops because a smaller share of car owners buy cars and people use cheap autonomous taxis is going to be the make or break moment for most traditional car makers in my mind. It wouldn't be ideal but if mass produced autonomous taxis would at least help keep any company afloat while they figured out how to convert their second gen taxis to EVs. Even if they would be operating at a loss Uber has proved people will pour money into things on the hope of future market share.

I say all that because I see the focus of this thread to always be about EV vs ICE - and don't get me wrong, I love my EV - but I feel like the more important short term market effects - both the real world market and the stock market - will be driven by autonomy, and I am just surprised it seems to come up here so little. I am sure everyone here knows what Tesla's latest autopilot update is capable of at any given time, and we know Tesla has the benefit of not having dealers block them from applying OTA updates, but for an investor discussion forum it seems very focused on the same thing everyone thinks is absurd - quarterly numbers and FUD - rather than what could actually make this company worth well over a Trillion dollars. Every car that comes off the line is potentially both an immediate revenue generator and a long term one.

With all that in mind it seems like a discussion on what could be found out about the competitions efforts on autonomy look like - manufacturers and software developers - to get a picture of the real value rather than worry about what the price is doing next week, which everyone here already seems to agree is just silliness.

Maybe I am wrong tho. Sorry if this came off as condescending. I read the California disengagement reports - knowing that they are nearly meaningless - and I see most reporting on it to be short sided and non-technical and saying we are a decade out, but with a forum of interested parties here it seems like collectively we should be able to gather more insight into the reality of this far more important question to the companies future.

 

[Yuri_G]

OT

Does anyone have a presentation on TSLA they can share? I am talking to a well-to-do family member next week and am going to try and have them buy shares of TSLA (would be a somewhat significant purchase for a retail investor but is minuscule in the big picture).

The investor asked to see a presentation, which I will complete if there isn't something readily available, but if anyone already has something (or if it is somewhere else on TMC) I'd rather not recreate the wheel, although I will be add some slides. I will be happy to share mine when complete. Thanks in advance.

This thread is a good place to start: Moderators' Choice: Posts of Particular Merit

Besides that the obvious points would be complete domination of the current EV market, revenue growth of +50% a year, and vertical integration.

 

[larmor]

Tesla Gigafactory 3 to be supported by Industrial Park in Shanghai, says official

"Having an industrial park in relatively close proximity to Gigafactory 3 will make Tesla’s electric car production much more efficient."

Vertical integration by proximity... I wonder if this will make the CNBC evening news... (it won't)

 

[Doggydogworld]

In the spirit of wasting time on quarterly deliveries, Anton Wahlman says 88k. I disagree with some of his numbers, but the detailed breakdown is very useful:
Tesla On Track For 88,000 Units Sold In Q2 - Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) | Seeking Alpha

 

[CalX]

OT

Does anyone have a presentation on TSLA they can share? I am talking to a well-to-do family member next week and am going to try and have them buy shares of TSLA (would be a somewhat significant purchase for a retail investor but is minuscule in the big picture).

The investor asked to see a presentation, which I will complete if there isn't something readily available, but if anyone already has something (or if it is somewhere else on TMC) I'd rather not recreate the wheel, although I will be add some slides. I will be happy to share mine when complete. Thanks in advance.

I wouldn't recommend a large investment to a family member, just because the stock is really volatile and often does the opposite of what you or I think it should, plus being heavily manipulated. But if you are looking for something, check out the ARK presentations. Better yet recommend that they purchase ARK funds which are managed and a bit more diversified.

 

[SteveG3]

OT

Does anyone have a presentation on TSLA they can share? I am talking to a well-to-do family member next week and am going to try and have them buy shares of TSLA (would be a somewhat significant purchase for a retail investor but is minuscule in the big picture).

The investor asked to see a presentation, which I will complete if there isn't something readily available, but if anyone already has something (or if it is somewhere else on TMC) I'd rather not recreate the wheel, although I will be add some slides. I will be happy to share mine when complete. Thanks in advance.

as a supplement or alternative, perhaps create a thread here in the investor section with your family member, where he/she can ask questions, bring up concerns, etc., and get a pretty well educated crowd sourced response?

 

[madodel]

CNBC - Yesterday:

I wonder how she can stand being in the same room as those clueless idiots.

 

[Nocturnal]

I wore a watch daily from 2nd grade on, but stopped when smartphones arrived. None of my kids wear a watch, nor to my knowledge do their friends. Swiss dominated analog timepieces for centuries, but the digital watch market only lasted a few decades.

The popular Kodak myth is even worse. Kodak actually "won" the digital camera market by some measures, just before that market collapsed. What good did it do them?

Robotaxis are the real threat to legacy carmakers. They'll be BEVs, but that's really incidental.

I don't think it's accurate to say it was a myth, oversimplification sure. They had the first digital camera in 1975. They wound up doing ok, but they could have cornered the market.

Vertical integration by proximity... I wonder if this will make the CNBC evening news... (it won't)

It's a pretty common thing I think. By accident or design. ​

 

[Sean Wagner]

Ah, by underbody, Elon meant sub frame. That makes more sense than casting a trunk.
Pic for reference:

Hallelujah, I've been puzzling over that one for some time. Though now that the sub-assembly has been identified, I'm seriously wondering why hydroforming wasn't considered.

 

[SW2Fiddler]

OT

Does anyone have a presentation on TSLA they can share? I am talking to a well-to-do family member next week and am going to try and have them buy shares of TSLA (would be a somewhat significant purchase for a retail investor but is minuscule in the big picture).
...
Thanks in advance.

Easiest request of the day. Thank Karen...
Why Invest in TSLA by Karen Rei

 

[EVMeister]

Bought 3 million more shares. Divided by 1 million.

 

[Tim S]

In the spirit of wasting time on quarterly deliveries, Anton Wahlman says 88k. I disagree with some of his numbers, but the detailed breakdown is very useful:
Tesla On Track For 88,000 Units Sold In Q2 - Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) | Seeking Alpha

Why would you post a link to something written by an anti-Tesla writer on an anti-Tesla site? There's no need for anyone here to click that link to support either of them.

 

[mongo]

Hallelujah, I've been puzzling over that one for some time. Though now that the sub-assembly has been identified, I'm seriously wondering why hydroforming wasn't considered.

I think hydro would have trouble with all the cross sectional changes and bends. Then look at all those brackets and mount points that are each weld ons. Going to a casting with press fit bushings is a major save.

 

[MartinAustin]

body lines were off the tour as of last October...

They were doing body assembly line tours in mid-April... with Raven parts lying all around. I was there. (FYI mixed S+X, didn't see anything that was S only)

 

[Chocochip]

I think hydro would have trouble with all the cross sectional changes and bends. Then look at all those brackets and mount points that are each weld ons. Going to a casting with press fit bushings is a major save.

Personally, I really don't think that's the (type of) part that Elon was referring to. An Al alloy cast will not be strong enough to take the loads that this specific part seems designed to take. I think he was referring to some sort of underbody casing with a complex geometry but much lower load requirements.

 

[NannerAirCraft]

Model 3 deliveries in the Netherlands are now only 12 units off from breaking the Q1 total with two days left. If you include S&X they have beat the Q1 total as a brand. Also seeing a nice increase in S&X sales in Spain and Norway compared to Q1.

 

[Dan Detweiler]

I'm not sure what the accounting ramifications are, but it seems like Tesla could avoid a lot of the end of the quarter nightmares if they reported sales instead of deliveries. Personally, sales seem more relevant, and whether they deliver those vehicles in a week or two weeks doesn't make much of a difference to me. Delivering vehicles is a process that can improved, and if they are slow, it's just a bug that will be fixed.

Is there a particular reason why deliveries are the metric rather than sales? Something to do with cash flow?

Deliveries are sales for Tesla. They are one and the same.

Dan

 

[BioSehnsucht]

Seriously?

Definition of WORLD
World - Wikipedia

Can you link to a published definition of the word that does not specifically mention that it's about an inhabited place with human people in it (e.g countries, civilizations…)?

OT

Both sources you linked list that one of the uses of 'world' is to refer to a celestial body. I'm actually surprised how much both sources focus on the aspect of humanity being involved for most definitions, as all through school there was never an explicit focus on the word being primarily in reference to humanity in some way or another.

So I think you're both right in terms of how you think of the word meaning something in particular, but you're less right for insisting it can't also have one of it's definitions be one of it's definitions.