Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[acoste]

You might be surprised how much faster the Model 3 ramp in China is vs. the ramp in Freemont. I'm betting the volume in Q4 in China will be significant. But any meaningful production in Q4 will juice the share price even if it's only 500 cars. Because even that would be an astounding achievement, going from muddy field to production in 10 months.

Deliveries start in March 2020, no?

Tesla Model 3 Deliveries From GF3 Expected In March 2020

 

[HG Wells]

Deliveries start in March 2020, no?

Tesla Model 3 Deliveries From GF3 Expected In March 2020

Read the article:
According to Teslas in Shanghai, the customer deliveries of the Shanghai-built Tesla Model 3 ordered today are now expected in March 2020

If you order today delivery is March 2020.

The order book opened last may.

 

[StealthP3D]

Deliveries start in March 2020, no?

Tesla Model 3 Deliveries From GF3 Expected In March 2020

I've mentioned this before but it seems to me that Musk has tackled his problem with optimistic projections and is dedicated to fixing it. In other words, I think that projection will be soundly beat and the share price will be rewarded for it.

 

[Reinhard]

Partial Europe sales up 18% so far for August vs May for the 7 countries that have reported registrations. This was driven entirely by massive deliveries in the Netherlands. Whether it will actually turn out to be a significant 18% increase for all of Europe will depend whether France and Germany can keep up their pace. Trends are good as they both had more deliveries in July than in April. UK is the wild card.

 

[Green Pete]

Sorry. I know it’s off topic. But I just felt like every instance of “this guy did x trip” people have to tell it makes explaining the range anxiety, of lack thereof, to people.

Did this trip in 5 days, including driving over beartooth pass into Yellowstone, through Lamar valley, past Grand Canyon of Yellowstone, down Hayden valley, past lake Yellowstone, old faithful and the grand prismatic spring. Also saw devils tower, Rushmore and crazy horse. Only ever used Tesla superchargers, never had to wait for a free stall.


I would say getting across Yellowstone had me a little worried. Would be nice to have 1 charger in the middle of the park. Arrived at West Yellowstone supercharger with 5% and wasn’t able to get the car to estimate that number until we had nearly arrived due to the poor cell coverage in the park.

 

[EVNow]

You might be surprised how much faster the Model 3 ramp in China is vs. the ramp in Freemont. I'm betting the volume in Q4 in China will be significant. But any meaningful production in Q4 will juice the share price even if it's only 500 cars. Because even that would be an astounding achievement, going from muddy field to production in 10 months.

Well, the topic is revenue from GF3. If they make 500 cars and sell, it might be bad for P&L because while there is not much revenue - they will have to start including fixed depreciation

Anyway, I'm sure SP will get a bump if GF3 starts producing cars that are sold in Q4. But the question is how much - may be $10 ?

 

[KarenRei]

Partial Europe sales up 18% so far for August vs May for the 7 countries that have reported registrations. This was driven entirely by massive deliveries in the Netherlands. Whether it will actually turn out to be a significant 18% increase for all of Europe will depend whether France and Germany can keep up their pace. Trends are good as they both had more deliveries in July than in April. UK is the wild card.

UK isn't the wild card, it's all upside. Barring some massive unforseen deliveries disaster that we haven't heard of

 

[RobStark]

I dunno. It feels like Porsche is trying too hard. The stats should be able to stand by themselves.

Reminds me of the Ford electric truck pulling a bunch of train cars, and when you run the numbers you find it’s not really doing anything all that special.

Porsche gets punched in the face for not advertising BEVs by BEV advocates. If only they would communicate the advantages........

And also gets slapped in the face for trying too hard by BEV advocates.

I rather Porsche try too hard.

 

[RobStark]

I wonder why they aren’t using more Tesla semis yet. That would make it even cheaper.

They can have prototypes on the road.

Once they have a fleet on the road doing standard delivery work I imagine they need all the regulatory approvals for a final production version.

 

[dc_h]

Partial Europe sales up 18% so far for August vs May for the 7 countries that have reported registrations. This was driven entirely by massive deliveries in the Netherlands. Whether it will actually turn out to be a significant 18% increase for all of Europe will depend whether France and Germany can keep up their pace. Trends are good as they both had more deliveries in July than in April. UK is the wild card.

Too early to tell. Last ship unloaded Thursday, the next this Friday and possibly 2 the following week and one last ship through the Panama Canal arriving in Zeebrudge about the 20th of September. Up to 12,000 cars arriving in the next 3 to 4 weeks, probably less, but this seems to be the largest month of deliveries to Europe to date.
Based on the Tesla carriers document Q1 and Q3 had about 23.5 days of loading in SFO, but this quarter has the Philadelphia wildcard shipment to the . They should be more efficient loading by now vs Q1, but that’s speculative. Anecdotal pictures of port 80 seem to imply faster loading then Q1, so anything from 24,000 to 28,000 seems reasonable for Europe with some chance of a small surprise to the upside.

I’ll stop obsessing on the Europe numbers for a while now. I’m looking forward to increased deliveries this quarter with UK and Australia and Hong Kong deliveries starting.

 

[RobStark]

The Tesla Model 3 Performance can do that even better at half the cost. And it has four doors and a lot more people and luggage space.

The Porsche has four doors.

It will likely look a lot better. It will cost twice as much. The rest we shall see.

 

[Andy O]

I wonder about my nearest Porsche dealership. They have 2 chargers on their lot but whenever I look they are both blocked by cars for sale.

 

[The Accountant]

Too early to tell. Last ship unloaded Thursday, the next this Friday and possibly 2 the following week and one last ship through the Panama Canal arriving in Zeebrudge about the 20th of September. Up to 12,000 cars arriving in the next 3 to 4 weeks, probably less, but this seems to be the largest month of deliveries to Europe to date.
Based on the Tesla carriers document Q1 and Q3 had about 23.5 days of loading in SFO, but this quarter has the Philadelphia wildcard shipment to the . They should be more efficient loading by now vs Q1, but that’s speculative. Anecdotal pictures of port 80 seem to imply faster loading then Q1, so anything from 24,000 to 28,000 seems reasonable for Europe with some chance of a small surprise to the upside.

I’ll stop obsessing on the Europe numbers for a while now. I’m looking forward to increased deliveries this quarter with UK and Australia and Hong Kong deliveries starting.

You're not the only one obsessing about the Europe numbers; I peek at the Europe registration forum's spreadsheet daily.
Thanks for sharing the data and your thinking on the shipping details. It's helpful....keep the updates coming!

 

[SpaceCash]

I switched sides guys. I'm part of the Shorty Air Force on stocktwats now. This piggy is cooked! Enron! Fwaud!

 

[generalenthu]

Tesla app has been down for the past 3 hours at least. Looks like it's worldwide.

Edit: it's up at 11:30 EST

 

[Beltsbear]

Porsche gets punched in the face for not advertising BEVs by BEV advocates. If only they would communicate the advantages........

And also gets slapped in the face for trying too hard by BEV advocates.

I rather Porsche try too hard.

Agreed. I think every Porsche advertisement helps sell electric cars. I think once the Taycan is out, it will take zero sales away from Tesla. Most Porsche customers will buy the Taycan, but some will defect to Tesla. All will be moving from ICE.

Porsche will probably not make enough cars.

 

[Doggydogworld]

Well, the topic is revenue from GF3. If they make 500 cars and sell, it might be bad for P&L because while there is not much revenue - they will have to start including fixed depreciation

I'm not so sure about GF3 fixed depreciation. If it's a Buffalo-style deal where a government entity owns the building and equipment and leases it to Tesla for $1/month or whatever then fixed depreciation will not materially affect COGS. Tesla would probably have to put it on their balance sheet, but it will have an offsetting liability. Depreciation of the capitalized asset would be offset by a reduction in the matching liability.

I'm certain Tesla will own the tooling, but tooling depreciation is variable instead of fixed (units of production method).

That's not to say a 500 unit quarter will be good for their financials. They'll still have a lot of labor cost to spread over so few cars. Such low production would indicate problems ramping the line. That tends to generate a lot of scrap (Jerome indirectly admitted their high scrap rate persisted into Q3 2018, after they got past the worst of the ramp problems).

 

[RobStark]

Agreed. I think every Porsche advertisement helps sell electric cars. I think once the Taycan is out, it will take zero sales away from Tesla. Most Porsche customers will buy the Taycan, but some will defect to Tesla. All will be moving from ICE.

Porsche will probably not make enough cars.

Porsche says

“More than half of the people that are signing up for the Taycan have not owned or do not own a Porsche. Typically, if we look at our source of business, people coming from other brands, it’s Audi, BMW, or Mercedes. The no. 1 brand now is Tesla. That’s pretty interesting, to see that people that were curious about the Tesla for very good reasons obviously don’t stop being curious.”

https://electrek.co/2018/12/28/porsche-tesla-owners-taycan-reservation/

Every time I see a Model 3 owner looking over their reading glasses studying the display screen trying to figure things out I wince.

I think it is very naive to think Porsche will not take any sales from Tesla where it seems Gen II vehicles are demand constrained. Not everyone that pays $80k plus for a vehicle is willing to accept polyurethane seat covers and rubber steering wheels.

 

[mongo]

Not everyone that pays $80k plus for a vehicle is willing to accept polyurethane seat covers and rubber steering wheels.

Like these ladies:

 

[deffu]

Porsche Stevens Creek in Santa Clara, CA says they received 200+ reservations for taycan.
This is in the heart of silicon valley.