Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Tslynk67]

Will be 2+ MY GA lines.


Cat pics...


When TSLA eventually goes up, it probably won't be on any news that we are going to be very surprised about. It will be surreal - why are people thinking this was the moment? - we will say. Not that we will be complaining.

SP isn't in line with the state of the company, one day this will correct.

As Fred Said Rightly, it was probably over-valued last time it was in the 380's, now it's the converse.

I think we've also observed that the FUD doesn't have much currency anymore either. As long as we don't get any more self-harm situations, it's a matter of time, sooner rather than later IMO.

 

[Pezpunk]

Hate to be the negative one but Laguna Seca is a much shorter track where cooling is not going to be much of an issue. So this time is great but it doesn’t mean much for the ring.

lol so we've moved the goalposts from "sure it can do zero to 60 but it'll get killed in the quarter mile" to "sure it'll win in a quarter mile but what about from a roll" to "ok but nobody cares about acceleration in sports cars!!!! it can't do a hot lap at a track!"" to "ok fine it is fast around a track, but nobody cares -- this weird 13-mile course in Germany is the only track on planet Earth that matters!"

because the only thing people do with their cars is take them to the Nurburgring. there are no other applications, no other tracks. no other metrics matter. (not coincidentally, because Tesla has conquered them all at this point)

 

[mrmage]

Definitely not #TSLAQ, but I'm not sure I'd say he referred to them in "pretty unflattering terms". He's described them as being "unicorns" and, IIRC, "teflon". When asked about them their tenacity he acknowledges it and that it is unusual. At least, until $BYND. Now those shorts sure know how to lose money...

Honestly, I think @ihors3 is right on this. At this point there's nothing sustained (yet) and it sure isn't rocketing up. In fact, it was at this level not very long ago. As someone else said, 1.5% each day for month? That would be a nice rally (20 trading days at 1.5% is >34%).

Remember that the information his company sells is primarily of interest to shorts.

It's great news that this is happening without a short squeeze. Industry backed bears can hold their positions forever, but they can't keep shorting if enough investors return. This seems to be happening with TSLA beating the indexes over the 5 day, 1 month, and 3 month periods, though not 6 months yet.

I'm also seeing so much positive news about Tesla in the press now. There's still the bear stories, but having a huge competitor like VW validating Tesla's role, mission, and financial stability shows how far Tesla has come. Sentiment is so much better compared to just 3 months ago.

If Tesla can hit their guidance this quarter, which is looking very good, I think the investment community will be back to where they were at the beginning of this year in sentiment, if not SP. And unlike the past where there were questions about demand, ability to ramp up, competition, and margin, Tesla has answered most of those at this point.

Looking forward to a healthy and sustainable improvement in metrics related to Tesla, if - knocking on wood - orange doesn't do something stupid.

 

[SteveG3]

The fake bears on social media and mainstream media used the disappointing first quarter to foment the "Tesla doom/bankruptcy" narrative that had a real world impact of deterring potential S3X buyers. Tesla's falling stock price acted as an amplifier for those pushing the narrative... table banging about a company being in existential trouble is much more believable when the stock price drops 40% over a few months.

It's reasonable to think we are on the cusp of a reversal of that series of events over the next 6 months or so. Q3 will be profitable or near it, and Q4 has been guided to as profitable. The stock price might be just at the beginning of moving upward (fwiw, still a little over 50% undervalued in my base scenario). This perceived success may increase demand, just as the fabricated 'doom' perception muted demand (we all remember the many reports the past six months right here of friends/family/colleagues who said they would of bought a Tesla, "but" with a look like "I'm so sorry, but anyone who hasn't been living under a rock knows Elon/the company are a dumpster fire").

What's more, all of that more recent Tesla kneecapping of Tesla enthusiasm was against the backdrop of years long kneecapping based on the "flood of competition coming from big boys will take Tesla out" false narrative... which just happens to be seeing its pants pulled down for even less informed observers right about now.

So what, they already have enough demand...

1) can never have enough demand. the more demand the more they can push forward confidently on accelerating the transition to sustainable transport. pushing forward confidently including employee morale, which has taken many hits the past couple of years (to be fair, not all of it "fake bear" manufactured, i.e., Elon/Tesla have been very high demand amid several layoffs).

2) bigger enthusiasm, demand for the vehicles creates real world face to face buzz among people that can rehabilitate a great deal of the enthusiasm and good will to Tesla and its vehicles the misinformation has worked so hard and so long to deflate. ie, Holy Teslamania may have been subject to being held back for some time, but, this could be the start of some serious releasing of that spring.

 

[Krugerrand]

Rollcage doesn't count per Porsche
Porsche welcomes a Tesla Nurburgring lap attempt

"That's obviously going to limit their relevance of what they've been doing," he(Klaus Zellmer) added, pointing out that the Taycan lap was performed on a series-production car rolling on series-production tires. "

I love it when someone talks out of turn on the Internet. Mr. Zellmer might want to wait until after Tesla records their track time before throwing shade. If Tesla uses ‘series-production’ tires and beats the Taycan’s time, he’s going to look like a donkey.

 

[jhm]

As of 9/1/19 Tesla installing low speed pedestrian warning sound emitter

Tesla Model 3 Noise Emitter Reverse Sound

Dang, I was hoping for RIP Harambe.
RIP Harambe

 

[larmor]

Rollcage doesn't count per Porsche
Porsche welcomes a Tesla Nurburgring lap attempt

"That's obviously going to limit their relevance of what they've been doing," he(Klaus Zellmer) added, pointing out that the Taycan lap was performed on a series-production car rolling on series-production tires. "

But did the Taycan have the latest software update or just the series-production software-- i'm talking to you windows 10, forcing me to update when nothing else works with it...

 

[Curt Renz]

Today's Closing:

-1.36% F
-1.14% FCAU
0.00% GM
+1.62% TSLA (high of the day)

Yesterday Above - Today Below

Today's Closing:

-1.08% FCAU
-0.30% GM
-0.11% F
+4.91% TSLA

 

[Stars aligned]

lol so we've moved the goalposts from "sure it can do zero to 60 but it'll get killed in the quarter mile" to "sure it'll win in a quarter mile but what about from a roll" to "ok but nobody cares about acceleration in sports cars!!!! it can't do a hot lap at a track!"" to "ok fine it is fast around a track, but nobody cares -- this weird 13-mile course in Germany is the only track on planet Earth that matters!"

because the only thing people do with their cars is take them to the Nurburgring. there are no other applications, no other tracks. no other metrics matter. (not coincidentally, because Tesla has conquered them all at this point)

Well, that screams for debunking... so many faster cars out there, just to begin with Laguna Seca:
Laguna Seca (post 1988) lap times - FastestLaps.com

 

[dgodfrey]

lol so we've moved the goalposts from "sure it can do zero to 60 but it'll get killed in the quarter mile" to "sure it'll win in a quarter mile but what about from a roll" to "ok but nobody cares about acceleration in sports cars!!!! it can't do a hot lap at a track!"" to "ok fine it is fast around a track, but nobody cares -- this weird 13-mile course in Germany is the only track on planet Earth that matters!"

because the only thing people do with their cars is take them to the Nurburgring. there are no other applications, no other tracks. no other metrics matter. (not coincidentally, because Tesla has conquered them all at this point)

There's still Daytona, Indy, and LeMans in their back pocket to be ushered out in about 3 weeks.
There's already talk on Porsche forums to hot laps that require charging. Unfortunately for them, they forgot that while they're charging at 250kW, the Tesla is still doing laps.

 

[Pezpunk]

Well, that screams for debunking... so many faster cars out there, just to begin with Laguna Seca:
Laguna Seca (post 1988) lap times - FastestLaps.com

Where did I say it was the fastest ever around Laguna Seca? Weak response.

 

[Todd Burch]

lol so we've moved the goalposts from "sure it can do zero to 60 but it'll get killed in the quarter mile" to "sure it'll win in a quarter mile but what about from a roll" to "ok but nobody cares about acceleration in sports cars!!!! it can't do a hot lap at a track!"" to "ok fine it is fast around a track, but nobody cares -- this weird 13-mile course in Germany is the only track on planet Earth that matters!"

because the only thing people do with their cars is take them to the Nurburgring. there are no other applications, no other tracks. no other metrics matter. (not coincidentally, because Tesla has conquered them all at this point)

You need to post this to Twitter. You summed it up perfectly.

 

[Vines]

I love it when someone talks out of turn on the Internet. Mr. Zellmer might want to wait until after Tesla records their track time before throwing shade. If Tesla uses ‘series-production’ tires and beats the Taycan’s time, he’s going to look like a donkey.

Are Pilot Sport Cup 2 mounted on the Taycan from the factory? What tires would the top of the line Turbo S model come with?

Its not unheard of to have a top level tire and wheel package available, making the tires on the Model S the same as a Porsche.

 

[Nocturnal]

Well, that screams for debunking... so many faster cars out there, just to begin with Laguna Seca:
Laguna Seca (post 1988) lap times - FastestLaps.com

It just beat the lap record for a 4 door car.

 

[Todd Burch]

And if it beats Taycan at Nurburgring, they will say "Sure it's the fastest production EV around Nurburgring, but that 2 million dollar non-production supercar can beat it!

 

[CorneliusXX]

Why not calling it Tayken Package?

Does the car have a very particular set of skills?

 

[StealthP3D]

Someone on Reddit claims 2100 Model 3 sales last month in China.
The source is not listed, but it's apparently based on Chinese social media / insurance data.
Link: China August model 3 sale exceeds : teslainvestorsclub

I like that Tesla is priming the Model 3 pump in China for the flood out of G3 that will soon follow.

 

[Mobius484]

It’s raven vs toucan.... raven sounds much cooler.... imho

 

[Stars aligned]

Where did I say it was the fastest ever around Laguna Seca? Weak response.

"there are no other applications, no other tracks. no other metrics matter. (not coincidentally, because Tesla has conquered them all at this point)" (statement yours, bold mine)

 

[StealthP3D]

Is this the reason for the bump (all week really, just accelerating up today)?
I was thinking of selling a bit, until I looked at my last buy prices... right here. Best just leave it alone, I can't even skim it properly here.

Skimming is a bad habit (yes, I know, it's conventional wisdom that it's a good strategy but that's just wrong). Sell if you think the asset will perform sub-standard. Selling a losing position because it got back to your buy price is the mistake of amateur investors. The price you paid for an asset is only notable for tax purposes, not trading purposes. Never consider your buy price when deciding when to sell (unless it's for tax purposes). Successful investors do not buy/sell on emotion and once you own a non-returnable asset (like stock) it's purchase price is of no consequence (except tax consequences).