Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[redan]

Good news AH upgrade (likely reason for AH bump):

Tesla upgraded to Buy from Neutral at New Street New Street analyst Pierre Ferragu upgraded Tesla to Buy from Neutral with a $578 price target. The analyst says the company's transition to a "fully-fledged profitable premium car manufacturer" is no longer a "controversial" view. Ferragu adds that only a ramp of production capacity limits Tesla's growth in at least the next 5 years, and he anticipates no pressure on prices, leading to expanding margins. The analyst further states that before 2025, Tesla's addressable market will have quadrupled in volume and its energy storage opportunity will have matured, representing a $750B addressable market.

Read more at: https://thefly.com/n.php?id=3171695

also New Street Research Upgrades Tesla (TSLA) to Buy; 'Decade of Hyper-Growth Ahead'

 

[vikings123]

What's this, a rise in AH?

Seems like it’s on good volume too. In the past this has usually meant some kind of an upgrade is coming and we will hear by premarket tomorrow. Maybe Wall Street is finally realizing the importance of what we saw on battery day

Edit: Just saw the post from @jareade.

 

[heltok]

Shanghai at 800 cars/day?

 

[Reductionist]

Shanghai at 800 cars/day?

View attachment 596266

This looks like a Model Y body to me (note the position of the roof cross bars and the shape of the rear end).
Seems like trial production is underway, at least for BIW.

 

[Christine69420]

So many car carriers lined up that the cars are whisked out of there before the lot has a chance to fill up.

That text you quoted @heltok was so tiny that my glasses can not keep up. Tried to enlarge the text WuWa wrote:

After ten days of production line maintenance, Tesla's Shanghai factory resumed production on October 1. After a week of production, the current daily production capacity of Model 3 reached 800 units, and the weekly production capacity was as high as 5,600 units.

We see At Tesla's Shanghai factory, there is no backlog of vehicles in the parking lot. The produced cars are quickly shipped out of the factory. In contrast, the number of trailers is more than the number of Model 3 parked, which is obviously a good idea. news.

At the same time, we also know that since the resumption of production, all the power batteries equipped with the Model 3 now use the Ningde era. Because of this, the domestic Model 3 has been reduced in price again. With the continuous deepening of localization, the future domestic Tesla The model will face the Chinese market at a lower price, which should be a good thing for consumers.

Just received news that Tesla’s Model Y in Shanghai will not only meet the needs of the Chinese market in the future, but will also be exported to overseas markets like Model 3, and the first stop will be Europe. The Tesla Model 3 and Modle Y made in China are exported overseas, which has eased the production capacity of the Fremont factory in California to a certain extent. If by the end of this year, Tesla's Shanghai plant carries out mass production and realizes export sales, this will not only help improve Tesla's sales performance in the European market, but also increase Tesla's fourth quarter of this year and the first quarter of next year. The decision is very good.

Shanghai at 800 cars/day?

View attachment 596266

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

Sorry if this was posted already but Tesla nailed it in 3rd quarter with the Model 3 the best selling car in the USA. Outselling common cars like Camry, Civic, Corolla and Accord. Awesome.
View attachment 596232

And as a manufacturer they did better. They were the ONLY manufacturer to show a sales increase YTD, a hefty 65% increase where the average car company saw a 18% drop.

View attachment 596239

Those numbers unfortunately are way off. It’s impossible that 89,000 Model 3s were sold in the US in Q3. Tesla delivered 140,000 cars worldwide, of which about 35,000 in China and 25,000 in Europe. Deducting another 10,000 for ROW and Canada leaves 70,000 cars for the US. Deduct Model Y, S and X and that leaves about 40,000 Model 3s.

 

[Curt Renz]

Benzinga - 23 minutes ago: Sports Betting Site Allows Wagers On Tesla, Rivian, Lordstown In Race For First Electric Pickup

C'mon Elon, place a bet on the Cybertruck and win!

 

[bkp_duke]

Benzinga - 23 minutes ago: Sports Betting Site Allows Wagers On Tesla, Rivian, Lordstown In Race For First Electric Pickup

Looks like they think Rivian will get their truck out first.

 

[CLK350]

From what I recall, Tesla Berlin currently doesn't have a battery manufacturing building being built. Seems like it is going to get pretty close timing wise to make 4680's in time for the rest of the factory being ready? Or maybe they will stick a small plant in one of the ones being built now?

Since Fremont will be producing 4680's for the Plaid and Semi in decent volume by then, both of them with flexible requirements, they could ship 4680's to Berlin to get the cars out, until the made in Berlin (or Shanghai?) batteries get in production. Berlin's car manufacturing schedule can thus go full speed without bottlenecks.

 

[Curt Renz]

Benzinga - 23 minutes ago: Sports Betting Site Allows Wagers On Tesla, Rivian, Lordstown In Race For First Electric Pickup

C'mon Elon, place a bet on the Cybertruck and win!

Looks like they think Rivian will get their truck out first.

Rivian may have the lowest odds, but at +150 the bettors still expect that some other horse in the field will beat them.

 

[RobStark]

Yeah, I give India between zero and no chance of getting either Model 3/Y local production. I give India <10% chance of getting a Model 2 line, but that's probably optimistic.

What India needs, and will likely get by 2025/6, is a Model 1 factory, along with the bty lines to support it (and TE products). Look for tabless 4680 LFP cells to support those TE products (often for microgrids which integrate all the Tesla Models 1 in the area).

India doesn't need more private automobile ownership. It needs high-availability, high use-factor and inexpensive cars, and that means robotaxi with grid integration. That's how Tesla helps solve the twin problems of pollution and overcrowding in India.

Not everyone has $15K for a Model 1, but most people have a cell phone and a dollar for a ride, which is what they really want. Local solutions, but for 1.4+ billion people. This matters. Tesla will get it done.

Cheers!

Not every American has $35k for a Model 3 but that doesn't stop Tesla from selling Model 3s to Americans.

Indians, like Chinese and Americans, want the middle class lifestyle. And there will be 10s of millions of Indians that will be able to afford a MiI Model 2. Perhaps 100s of millions.

Westerners will not be able to dictate to Indians that they can't own a private car.

 

[CLK350]

Rivian may have the lowest odds, but at +150 the bettors still expect that some other horse in the field will beat them.

Great - let us know if Elon bites - he wouldn't bet if he didn't think the odds are in his favor (recalling the South Australia bet). Then I'd join the betting too

 

[Chickenlittle]

Looks like they think Rivian will get their truck out first.

Ask gm what advantage they got with the bolt beating model3 to market. Who cares

 

[smorgasbord]

Ask gm what advantage they got with the bolt beating model3 to market. Who cares

I think GM sold, relatively speaking, "a lot" of Bolts before Model 3 was available to people who couldn't or didn't want to wait. I know one couple that bought a Bolt and really likes it. They got to drive in out Model 3 about a year later and were blown away. I doubt their next EV will be a GM.

 

[Beltsbear]

Looks like they think Rivian will get their truck out first.

I agree with the order as well. Workhorse may beat Tesla for a few units though. They can hand build and have experience making /buying packs.

if the bet was who makes 5000 in customers hands first it would be Tesla.

 

[Papafox]

NOTE: THIS IS NOT NUMEROLOGY.

I wonder why we're so intensely pinned to $420 (which was max pain earlier and might still be) this week? Usually, max pain primarily comes into play around options expiration on Friday...but this week we've been constantly dragged back to it throughout the week?!?

As someone who's been watching this stock's behavior almost daily for years, this seems really odd to me.

Part of the answer to your question is simply that since 420 is a number so ingrained in the minds of TSLA investors, it has become a focus point and more recently has become the "safe price" which is not too high and not too low.

Mostly, though, if you look at this week's Max Pain chart found here, you'll find an extremely clean break between puts and calls that expire on Friday. This week, 420 and below is dominated by puts and above that number is dominated by calls. Seldom is max pain so clean. Normally, there's a strike price which makes more sense for market makers to shoot for than the official max pain number, but not this week (so far, at least).

You also have the three big players that I see moving the stock price this week:
* Big dog investors have plugged 3Q P&D Report numbers into their spreadsheets and want to buy more TSLA, but they've been waiting for a dip. Whenever TSLA gets much below 420, we've seen buying return and the dip is short-lived.
* At least twice in the last week we've seen TSLA pushed down in a long, near linear descent. I suspect this manipulator is a big hedge fund, joined by at least one other hedge fund, profiting from the ambiguity about TSLA's price action this week and making money by day-shorting the stock during the push lower and covering same day
* We also have the market makers who have profited greatly by selling options the past two weeks and then seeing TSLA close to the max pain number. They want week 3 of great profits, and so they're giving the stock a little help here or there at staying near 420.

Now Pierre Ferragu has upset the applecart by upgrading TSLA from hold to buy and raising his price target from 400 to 578. Previously, Ferragu has been saying that TSLA is worth the current price but you should wait for the dip before buying. Now he's saying in effect, "go ahead and start buying, the dip may never come." That's a pretty big incentive for bulls like me who have been maybe a bit more careful than usual because Ferragu was saying wait on the sidelines for a better price. Now that situation has changed in a very bullish fashion, and the equilibrium we've been seeing this week from the players listed above might no longer keep the pivot going around 420. We may be ready to climb again, macros permitting.

 

[Curt Renz]

Barron's - 24 minutes ago: A Tesla Bull Makes a Bold Call: The Stock Can Hit $1,200

Excerpt:

He doesn’t see credible new competition on the horizon, which will help Tesla maintain growth and leading profit margins. Ferragu sees Tesla generating more than $100 billion in sales and $16 in earnings per share by 2026. “ Amazon has traded in the 50 [to] 100 [times] earnings range for over a decade, and we expect Tesla to follow suit.” At the midpoint of that range, with that level of earnings, Tesla could trade for $1,200 a share by the end of 2025. (Stocks trade on forward earnings.) “At this price, the stock would still deliver 20% [average annual] return.”

 

[StrawbrryField]

One plausible reason is that German cars need more range than do cars elsewhere, at last when people use the Autobahn system optimally.

Tesla batteries are not limited to high nickel. The 4680 cells are the architecture. All Tesla made batteries will be this and benefit from the tabless design. The chemistry will vary and model y Europe May be nickel manganese or iron phosphate. High nickel according to battery day reserved for cybertruck and semi and plaid version. Battery diversification is the way.

 

[MC3OZ]

Yeah, unlikely that Y goes to Texas-only production. Elon already said 3/Y for the West coast will come from Fremont, and for the Eastern U.S. from Texas.

It's logistics. Unless Alameda County bones the pooch again, the brand new GA5 line at Fremont will be producing Models Y as fast as California can consume them. Remember, HALF of all Tesla sales in N. America happen in California.

Cheers!

Yep, logistics is under estimated, so is risk management.

So far Tesla has said nothing about a pack making machine for 4680s, but there is a fair chance Grohmann are making that machine.

if the Tesla Model Y ramp turns into a "mini production hell", a lot of the relevant expertise is close by.

• Cell production - Grohmann and ATW
• Pack making - Grohmann
• Casting machine - (some crazy Italians)
• Fancy pants paint ship - (more crazy Italians)
• General factory automation - Grohmann

If the Model Y ramp in Berlin hits any issues, we will be glad Fremont and Shanghai are still cranking out Model Y.

Austin will make the Berlin Model Y, the apparent differences to the regular Fremont Model Y are:-

• Lower weight and better driving dynamics
• Fancy paint

What is likely to be identical at least initially is:-

• Range
• Performance
• Charging Speed

The main issue I can see is that fancy paint will be hard to overlook.

However, if they are going to do major renovations at Fremont. after Berlin and Austin are fully ramped is a good time to do that.

But it does make sense to update Fremont and to keep making Model 3 & Y.

Fremont will obviously keep making Model S/X and Roadster.

Austin is going to be a lot bigger than Fremont, so eventually they are going to do a lot of things there that are not currently at the main Fremont factory. Cybertruck and any other new models made in Austin will need to be shipped to California.
Model 3/Y can be made in California that is streamlined logistics and less time in transit.

 

[FrankSG]

@Artful Dodger I love the way BB midpoint is laser-focused on 420 this morning! I get a kick out of the way TSLA follows the "macros" like a sheep due to AI algos that read press releases IMHO. Like when DPOTUS (D=drugged lol) announces he won't negotiate to help people until after 11/3. Yes, that's bad for struggling folks, but unfortunately, as Elon said they cannot afford to buy a Tesla (yet) so he and team are working to fix that. In other words, that "macro" event did not affect Tesla sales in the next 12-14 months one iota because the people burned cannot afford the product anyway.

OT Alert:

On a personal note, my Taiwanese-American wife and I have had enough of California (AQI in Bay Area red again today), not to mention our 7-month self-imposed COVID-19/20/21/22(?) house confinement due to age and some health risks.

We are preparing our "Escape to Taiwan". Their 24M population has only had 7(!) COVID-19 fatalities from day 1. In Sept. they had ~25 infections. It is the ONLY country in the world without a travel advisory due to COVID-19!! The only downside is China's Xi is saber rattling because Taiwan's current leader is rumbling about a desire to proclaim independence or something like that? The USD is still strong - go figure? 首頁 - Taipei Economic and Cultural Office in San Francisco 駐舊金山台北經濟文化辦事處

You can actually *live* there safely, eat in restaurants, etc. My wife has dual citizenship reads/writes/speaks Mandarin fluently, but the Taiwanese all had to learn English in school. We just need a negative COVID-19 test within 3 days of boarding EVA AIR. I'm cashing in 225K AMEX points for 3 free outbound "Royal Laurel" (business they have no first) class seats, transferring them into Air Canada's new Aeroplan program to book an SFO->TPE Star Alliance flight that is "operated by EVA AIR". We all have P100 masks to wear during the flight. I'll have to self-quarantine 14 days upon arrival at home since I'm a non-citizen and non-student. Visitors like me can stay for 6 months at a time. We plan to stay in a modern AirBnB downtown near one of my wife's 5 older sisters. (I married the youngest one ha ha).

We're not returning until either:

1. UZLA (University of Zoom Los Angeles) becomes UCLA again and our son has to take "live" MSCS classes.
2. USA Covid-19 crisis is over and the country is stable.

We're lucky that we can operate our business electronically, or not and live off of our dividends, etc. As soon as we finish tying up some loose ends we're getting the hell out of this country for awhile.

If any of you decide to do the same, DM me for my email address and I shall answer questions/provide advice/my experience after we get there. I've learned quite a bit from some of you when I used to actively post in Model X then Model 3 forums and just lurk on here. I'm grateful for that so I'd like to pay it forward.

Taiwan is an amazing place! It ranks 2nd both on my list of favorite places to live (2nd to Singapore) and list of favorite places to travel to (2nd to Japan). I'm sure you'll have a great time there!

There's also a fair amount of Teslas in Taiwan. When I was last in Taipei last October, I didn't see any 3s driving around yet (although they had it at the Tesla store), but I saw a very large number of Model X and a couple of Model S.