Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Beltsbear]

Neural networks can certainly make a point cloud with a single 2d image. The more photos the better

Somewhat off topic, but this is pretty neat: Algorithm spots 'Covid cough' inaudible to humans

Of course the title is misleading. 'Algorithm' implies a human figured out how to code for this. Reality? It is a neural network and the creator of the neural network has no ducking idea how it works. It would take a lot of work to figure out what the neural network is listening for. That is the magic of neural networks and some data sets, patterns that humans would not even search for are detected. Same with heart defect detection through audio signals.

How does this relate to Tesla? The neural network is going to in many cases avoid accidents that humans won't. It might miss something like a poorly strapped down object that is about to fall out, but it will see unsteady driving that humans miss. We will die differently but most importantly LESS OFTEN when the networks are driving us.

 

[jbcarioca]

I hope you are not taking Navigant ratings seriously. This is the same "research" house that ranked Tesla dead last in autonomy!

Siemens is a huge money corporation that has grown over the last several decades by buying up any and all upstart competitors including other large established players. That strategy wont work when trying to avoid competing with Tesla. Siemens is corrupt to the core and bloated, wasteful and inefficient, they will not be able to compete with a nimble and highly innovative company like Tesla (nor will they be able to buy them out). Things are changing quickly and moving faster every year. Advantage: Tesla.

Sure, that is true. I don't argue that Tesla is doomed. To the contrary. Despite the legacy approaches being obsolescent for the most part, public utilities are never noted for their foresight. Even so, Tesla's success to date has been amazing, in large part due to software advantages and highly integrated solutions, plus being often cheaper than other options. Still, public utilities are distinctly not a level playing field. As for Navigant, I showed them because utilities and legacy businesses often value them.

 

[PeterJA]

No, rail is doomed.

As usual, it's not easy to foresee all the implications of revolutionary new technology, but I think I see a few.

1) When computers finish learning to drive, they will not drive like humans. A robo-car/truck that can see in all directions and react much faster than humans will safely drive much faster and/or with less space between moving vehicles. Therefore, robo-autos that react 10 times faster will increase a highway's "bandwidth" (potential throughput) by 10 times, through some combination of faster speed and closer spacing. Every traffic flow during rush hours will be a high-speed convoy.

2) Human driving of cars will not disappear, just as horseback riding has not disappeared, but it will be restricted to "human-speed" roads. Horses are currently prohibited on interstates. Eventually human-driven cars will be too.

3) Other current forms of land transportation will gradually disappear because robo-autos will be cheaper, faster and/or more convenient. Why load freight containers on-and-off a train (and wait for the train to depart) when robotrucks will take them directly from loading dock to loading dock (and depart immediately when loaded)? Why load people on-and-off buses and light rail when robocars will take them from door to door on their own schedules?

4) Future forms of land transportation (tunnels, hyperloop) will still have some advantages, such as protection from weather and very high speed. But the need for them will be reduced, because highway speed and bandwidth will be increased and people will sleep while traveling overnight.

5) Future challenges for Tesla's material engineers will include making roads more durable and tire dust less toxic. Tesla will not run out of things to innovate.

From ARK's newsletter today:

...According to ARK’s research, autonomous electric trucks could transport freight for 3 cents per ton-mile, 75% less than the 12 cents for human-driven diesel trucks and 25% less than the 4 cents for rail transport.​

The addressable market for Tesla Semi with FSD in not the current trucking market. It is current trucking plus rail.

 

[Nocturnal]

From ARK's newsletter today:

...According to ARK’s research, autonomous electric trucks could transport freight for 3 cents per ton-mile, 75% less than the 12 cents for human-driven diesel trucks and 25% less than the 4 cents for rail transport.​

The addressable market for Tesla Semi with FSD in not the current trucking market. It is current trucking plus rail.

My back of the napkin math had autonomous trucks coming in at about 50% higher than rail which was still game changing. Great to see that I was being too conservative.

 

[Bet TSLA]

Wondering what @BetTesla has as a strategy now ?

Sold some more this morning at 397, leaving me with only 5100 shares. Bought 50 March 200 puts as a hedge on those for $4.75 when TSLA was at 404. I expect to sell that hedge in January or February, I hope for next to nothing, but if TSLA is down big it will provide some solace. I'll restore something like my previous mostly in position when (if) the political turmoil in the US has calmed down. I hope I'm just being needlessly paranoid.

This is the first time I've intentionally taken a negative position in TSLA. Wish me bad luck!

N.B. I'm not at all sure this constitutes a "strategy".

 

[Krugerrand]

Honda joins Tesla/FCA pool

"But...but...they only make profits because of the deminishing credits... "

One time credit, Baby! One time credit.

 

[MTL_HABS1909]

Same pattern for a while now. Morning pop and slow walk down the rest of the day.

 

[Silentk]

Was just re-reading the fantastic thread on "Elon vs Short Sellers" by @jesselivenomore and came across our old friend Gordon (quote below). Seems pretty clear he is not a mistaken/clueless/ terrible analyst, he is simply part and parcel of that fabric dedicated to destroy first Solarcity and now Tesla. Thankfully he has lost the battle, and we can only hope that he has shorted heavily alongside his friends.

"Gordon Johnson, a solar analyst of Axiom Capital initiated coverage of Solarcity that day with a scathing Sell rating. This seem to set off the "waterfall" of Solarcity's decline. Over the next year, Johnson would publish report after report reiterating his bearish stance."

Interesting also that according to Jesse what saved Fairfax Financial in 2002 from a concerted hit-job by Chanos and co was that they sued. "So Fairfax ultimately made the only move it had left, it sued. And merely filing it was what saved the firm. The detailed response about all the allegations spooked short investors who jumped on the bandwagon with Chanos and the rest."

Anyways, no secret to most of you here how dirty the short-selling can get, but those new to the forum should probably read that post in full. A bit ilke that video of stock manipulation that used to be posted here once a day

Link to post: Elon Musk vs. Short sellers

 

[capster]

Uh, what? I didn't say that you weren't guessing in the right direction. I said you weren't going nearly far enough. How would reading "more closely" have changed that? Saying that humans and AIs will each have their strengths and weaknesses, while true, utterly misses the future reality that AI drivers will be next level, not comparable with humans in any meaningful way. You are treating them as comparable.

Umm, we are comparing them.

I didn’t give an estimate of how much further AI would go. (And I do think FSD will go far, btw).

However, there will remain differences.

When I’m riding my bicycle, I frequently find myself exchanging hand signals with drivers at stop signs because often people like to let cyclists go first. The current iteration of FSD won’t support such negotiations.

You can say this incontrovertible example doesn’t count, but you get the point. And, yes, expectations and behaviors will change — in time.

Another way to think about it is this: Cars can achieve a ground speed velocity higher than I can. On the other hand I can (or could once ) climb a tree.

The boundaries of the drivable space blur at places with other spaces. Our ‘common sense’ may help us with these (though that may differ by culture). Some of these will remain under sampled for some time even as FSD is well down the path of the march of nines.

Our views are not mutually exclusive; though you could narrow the problem so that you are correct just as I could widen the scope so that human performance is always meaningful to compare.

If you’ve read my posts over the years you’d know I’m very bullish on FSD. I’ve said repeatedly both that it will be here and that it will be allowed by regulators much sooner than almost everyone expects.

I’m just offering a little nuance. FSD is after all a system intended to work with and benefit humans in a human world.

 

[Bet TSLA]

Dojo is all well and good, but I want to see "Rojo"....

So Tesla, got some top folks working on this?

Intern project.

 

[The Accountant]

One time credit, Baby! One time credit.

Honda joins Tesla/FCA pool

"But...but...they only make profits because of the deminishing credits... "

This is interesting. Here is the CO2 status as of August for the FCA-Tesla pool: Fleet average is below target (106 vs target of 94).
Tesla's September registrations should help closed this gap a bit but I find it very bullish that Honda has joined perhaps indicating that Tesla will have enough registrations in Q4 to make up this August ytd shortfall and also help Honda.
The September report should come out tomorrow. I will post it when it publishes.

 

[computerchuck]

This is the first time I've intentionally taken a negative position in TSLA.
Wish me bad luck!
N.B. I'm not at all sure this constitutes a "strategy".

Bad luck my friend!!

Seriously, not a bad idea from my point of view. With C19 lockdown concerns, and with election results (regardless who wins) sure to be contested, and afterwards the election count not being settled for another 3 to 8 days, yeah - things could get crazy.

FYI, my portfolio (before Friday PM) was 95% TSLA (over 1m). I've basically pulled back to cash today (completed this morning about 20 min after market open), and will stay in cash for at least 1 week.

My current macro view on this is that there are much greater downsides then upsides, for the next week or so. Outside of another stock split or S&P inclusion, we shouldn't see crazy upside. So, I think very limited gain losses.

In summary, I'm quite happy to risk some short term smallish gains and re-enter my 95% TSLA position next week or later, depending. Maybe a few more NIO positions as well.

Not advice, my 2 pennies. Stay long, stay safe.

 

[adiggs]

Plus, since I'm retired and dependent on my investments for all my income, perhaps it makes more sense for me to be conservative, not that I have any practice at that. But since my entire portfolio is currently up so much, I'm thinking that maybe not being excessively greedy is a good idea. It would be nice not to lose it all again. That gets irritating once you're retired.

This particular dynamic is something I've been thinking about more often myself of late. It is sort of obvious to say that in retirement, what we need from our portfolio is different from when we're still building to retirement. I've known that for years, but have only been thinking about what that actually means in practice.

The net result for the moment is that I encourage people to remember that we don't all have the same needs from our investments, and that those differences lead to very different decisions

Wondering what @BetTesla has as a strategy now ?

I can't speak for @Bet TSLA - I'm not them - but I would like to think that seemingly snide comments, and the Funny reactions, about another person's financial situation and strategy, are a bad idea for the overall health and value of this forum.

I know that for me, even 1 year ago, anything other than a portfolio Growth mindset was an actively weird idea.


Today that has shifted for me. Though I haven't adopted anything like that particular strategy for myself around the election, I personally have begun making many choices in my own portfolio and overall strategy that are much less than optimum in a rising share price environment. Because my needs are changing, and the risk that the shares stop rising is an even greater risk (for me) than missing out on some or a lot of that upside.

I'm very close to needing to live off the accumulated portfolio and I'm not emotionally ready to sell shares monthly (quarterly, annually) to fund living expenses. So I have different approaches and they're much closer to the approach discussed.


The point being that in this particular situation, @Bet TSLA had a particular approach that made sense in their larger situation, and given the risks that they saw in the market. Most importantly they provided the particular dynamics in the market that they saw, as well as some context for their decision making. That was an important value add this forum exposed you to if you'd chosen to look for it, whether you chose that as something that made sense for you.

 

[bkp_duke]

Was just re-reading the fantastic thread on "Elon vs Short Sellers" by @jesselivenomore and came across our old friend Gordon (quote below). Seems pretty clear he is not a mistaken/clueless/ terrible analyst, he is simply part and parcel of that fabric dedicated to destroy first Solarcity and now Tesla. Thankfully he has lost the battle, and we can only hope that he has shorted heavily alongside his friends.

"Gordon Johnson, a solar analyst of Axiom Capital initiated coverage of Solarcity that day with a scathing Sell rating. This seem to set off the "waterfall" of Solarcity's decline. Over the next year, Johnson would publish report after report reiterating his bearish stance."

Interesting also that according to Jesse what saved Fairfax Financial in 2002 from a concerted hit-job by Chanos and co was that they sued. "So Fairfax ultimately made the only move it had left, it sued. And merely filing it was what saved the firm. The detailed response about all the allegations spooked short investors who jumped on the bandwagon with Chanos and the rest."

Anyways, no secret to most of you here how dirty the short-selling can get, but those new to the forum should probably read that post in full. A bit ilke that video of stock manipulation that used to be posted here once a day

Link to post: Elon Musk vs. Short sellers

I'm not allowed to post details, but let's just say I know someone personally at Tesla that is high up enough the food chain that he can confirm similar plays against Tesla over the years. If ever needed, he's amassed a mountain of data to go after the shorts legally, but ultimately the fight was taken to the shorts financially, to hurt them where they could be hurt the most.

 

[AudubonB]

Good day, all -

The following is not - I repeat, NOT, a politically-charged post.

Because -

1. It is not.
2. Because I's da Mod and this is my thread and I say it's not.

So: How can we make it so the following - which is absolutely true and just happened - becomes a metaphor for these times?

And, on edit.....

This is what you call a fluke.

 

[bkp_duke]

This is interesting. Here is the CO2 status as of August for the FCA-Tesla pool: Fleet average is below target (106 vs target of 94).
Tesla's September registrations should help closed this gap a bit but I find it very bullish that Honda has joined perhaps indicating that Tesla will have enough registrations in Q4 to make up this August ytd shortfall and also help Honda.
The September report should come out tomorrow. I will post it when it publishes.

View attachment 604705

I read this as Tesla expecting a @#$% ton of credits in 2021 due to GF Berlin coming online.

 

[wipster]

This would be amazing for Tesla in the long term, but might hurt sales in the short term as people wait for the credit to return.

Unless Uncle Joe makes it retroactive...

 

[corduroy]

leaving me with only 5100 shares

Congrats, I would love to have only 5,100 shares some day!

 

[dl003]

One time credit, Baby! One time credit.

"TSLA is luring Honda into the pool because FCAU refuses to maintain the same credit rate." - GLJ 2020

 

[Prunesquallor]

This is interesting. Here is the CO2 status as of August for the FCA-Tesla pool: Fleet average is below target (106 vs target of 94).
Tesla's September registrations should help closed this gap a bit but I find it very bullish that Honda has joined perhaps indicating that Tesla will have enough registrations in Q4 to make up this August ytd shortfall and also help Honda.
The September report should come out tomorrow. I will post it when it publishes.

View attachment 604705

Recall that the Phase-In (PI) credit goes away next year, so all other things being equal all players will be another 3 g/km in the red.