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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Andy O
Member
This seems quite mistaken to me. When I look at the chart I see the holdings are measured in dollars, not in number of shares. The stock split made no difference in the size of the holdings when they are measured in dollars.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Remember, the MMs are to provide hours of entertainment every day. And try to get OPM (other people's money) to pay for their entertainment services. /s or maybe /truth
dc_h
Active Member
Agree, I don't see earnings being over $8.00. There could be a small chance of beating that level, but 9.55 assumes the world is doing well and Tesla is delivering near 100% in all sectors. Surprises would be needed from Energy and Auto production capacity. Energy with growth over 100% and margins expanding more rapidly than expected and auto production ramping faster in Shanghai and starting in Berlin in greater quantity than expected and the same in Austin.
There are a lot of paths to beating earnings estimates, but to hit $14.07, you'd need everything to go right.
- Fremont Production over 550,000
- Shanghai Production approaches 500,000
- Berlin Production hits 100,000 MIG MY
- Austin Production hits 50,000 MY? CT/Semi?
- Battery deliveries hit 1 billion per quarter
- Solar installations 4 times 2020
I think the stock is primed for a breakout. Just needs a Elon email leak or a Jim Cramer interview
.Supply has pretty much dried out and IV has dropped to Nov 2019 levels. I do think the fears around second covid wave are overblown. For the first time in a while I think we are sitting on a buy the news event. I plan to dip into some LEAPS soon, the downside is very limited. Not advice
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
FWIW my not-advice if you've got a significant chunk to throw in long term is either:
Buy shares and sell OTM CCs against them if you don't expect any massive spikes over the sold period (be it weekly, monthly, whatever)
or
Buy DITM LEAPs, as IV is relatively low right now and you can get twice as many for the same investment amount and they'll generally move along with share price- this is better if you DO expect a massive spike at some point in your time horizon that would outweigh the sold CC premiums.
insaneoctane
Well-Known Member
I know that the limited release beta FSD is exciting, but let's not get ahead of ourselves. At the current level 2 that Tesla is offering, the driver is still COMPLETELY responsible for the vehicle and any accidents. We know that, nonetheless, with a beta FSD accident that the #MSM and FUD machines are waiting and will pounce on it. Seems better for this to happen during level 2 (where the driver is responsible) than to prematurely jump to a higher level. Maybe FL and other states will allow it, but Tesla and their stock holders are certainly is not ready yet!
I think the stock is primed for a breakout. Just needs a Elon email leak or a Jim Cramer interview
Supply has pretty much dried out and IV has dropped to Nov 2019 levels. I do think the fears around second covid wave are overblown. For the first time in a while I think we are sitting on a buy the news event. I plan to dip into some LEAPS soon, the downside is very limited. Not advice
IV @ 62. Converted 100 shares to 2 Jan 23 450 calls. If it drops might have to do a few more of these.
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
MMD seems to be getting much more reliable of late. Will be hit $421 again this afternoon? I'd love for someone to eventually write a fat blog post on how much they've made day-trading this nonsense MMD for the past few years. Include all the daily logs of transactions. You could literally become a millionaire without owning any real shares.
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
Right. That's why I pointed out the issue isn't regulation holding higher levels back- it's that a reliable self-driving product doesn't actually exist yet.
I 100% expect Tesla would not release something at a higher-than-L2 level unless they were VERY confident in its reliability and safety- even if it'd be completely legal to do so, as it already is in a number of US states.... and I'd expect the current FSD-beta to spend a solid amount of time in wide L2 release before anything higher comes along.
Only question to my mind is how long before it gets from current narrowish L2 release to wide L2 release- Elon says by end of this year, and he's been significantly better with dates lately so we'll see.... (that'd also let them recognize more deferred FSD revenue for Q4 of course)
So in other words, that marketbeat article was total garbage and should be ignored by both bulls and bears alike?
Americans have decided they aren't afraid (right or wrong) and a have a vaccine in play now. Covid fears should be about gone in the market, the only remaining question is how much damage there actually is to the economy. Not so much in the scheme of things is my thought. IMO, it's sad, but the people financially harmed by the virus were mostly broke already. My LEAP holdings have been slowly ramping up. I'm holding more TSLA than I'd like to as a % right now but the upside is so much bigger than the down.I think the stock is primed for a breakout. Just needs a Elon email leak or a Jim Cramer interview
Supply has pretty much dried out and IV has dropped to Nov 2019 levels. I do think the fears around second covid wave are overblown. For the first time in a while I think we are sitting on a buy the news event. I plan to dip into some LEAPS soon, the downside is very limited. Not advice
I have buy orders at $385 now. Looks like it may be a while (Mid-2021) before we see the big jumps up, as before.
Not advice.
PS. Disclaimer: The market does things irrationally all the time. I could be totally off base here.
We know Tesla is awesome and in five years from now, we are all going to be winners. HODL
Not advice.
PS. Disclaimer: The market does things irrationally all the time. I could be totally off base here.
We know Tesla is awesome and in five years from now, we are all going to be winners. HODL
You know what TSLA needs? They need one more person to start a site or channel dedicated to them. If just one more person could parasitize an income off TSLA/Musk, then surely the word would get out about this company and the price could move higher!
Dan Detweiler
Active Member
People need to keep in mind that even with true Level5 FSD accidents and deaths will still happen. Autonomy will greatly reduce accidents and death but not eliminate them.
Also, in my opinion,, the driver will ALWAYS ultimately be responsible for the actions of the vehicle up to the point at which the driver is "locked out" and denied the ability to control the vehicle. Just like the pilot of an aircraft is responsible for the safe operations of his/her aircraft even when operating in auto pilot.
Dan
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