Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[lklundin]

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Yes, that's why they need an intermediate step, currently done for the MiC Model 3 in the large paved marshalling yard.

The cars are parked and lined up in order for each assigned truck. The mix must be assigned by Tesla's ordering and dispatch software. Works, but with these drawbacks:

• labor intensive
• large amount of land required
• slow / delayed shipping

An automated delivery building (think 'CarMax' or a Japanese robo-garage) solves these problems through:

• automation
• vertical component reduces land req'd
• much faster / more reliable logistics

I agree, and have been advocting for some time that Tesla should add a section to their FSD team that focuses soley on the task of loading Tesla cars onto car carrier ships at Fremont, and unloading them in Zeebrugge.

Even something short and simple like the car self-driving onto the truck trailer, then unloading on command is low hanging fruit.

But Tesla needs to build a deliver system that can scale to 40x their current volume. That justifies some 'first principles' effort.

But it's unlikely, at least under U.S. Consumer law, that Telsa cars will ever drive themselves unattended to meet their new owners. That entrains a lot of product liablility and damage claims risk. The current 'touchless' delivery is likely the closest we'll see.

Cheers!

I am inclined to think the new Giga-Shanghai structure is for something else than a loading area:
1) Regardless of the solution, there is a requirement for a 2D-structure with M by N cells, where each cell can hold a car, and where M is the maximum number of trucks under concurrent loading and N is the number of cars that fit on one truck.
2) For this M-by-N 2D structure a parking lot is sufficient, cheap and when needed easy to adjust in size.
3) With land available to the East I see little reason for CapEx to go multi-level with this,
4) As for the labor, the finished cars could with relative ease be programmed to drive themselves to the right waiting cell - and from there forwards, up onto the corresponding truck.

 

[ByeByeJohnny]

Yes, that's why they need an intermediate step, currently done for the MiC Model 3 in the large paved marshalling yard.

The cars are parked and lined up in order for each assigned truck. The mix must be assigned by Tesla's ordering and dispatch software. Works, but with these drawbacks:

• labor intensive
• large amount of land required
• slow / delayed shipping

An automated delivery building (think 'Carvana' or a Japanese robo-garage) solves these problems through:

• automation
• vertical component reduces land req'd
• much faster / more reliable logistics

I agree, and have been advocting for some time that Tesla should add a section to their FSD team that focuses soley on the task of loading Tesla cars onto car carrier ships at Fremont, and unloading them in Zeebrugge.

Even something short and simple like the car self-driving onto the truck trailer, then unloading on command is low hanging fruit.

But Tesla needs to build a deliver system that can scale to 40x their current volume. That justifies some 'first principles' effort.

But it's unlikely, at least under U.S. Consumer law, that Telsa cars will ever drive themselves unattended to meet their new owners. That entrains a lot of product liablility and damage claims risk. The current 'touchless' delivery is likely the closest we'll see.

Cheers!

The only one of your arguments I agree with is that a building requires less land.

However. I live in a city with a port where there are many ships with cars unloaded every year. I know people that have worked there and they've all been told that the reason they are always parked outside. Even while waiting for months until further deliveries (yeah, ICE manufacturers) you do not want to drive these cars anywhere near walls and pillars. Because drivers unloading the ships will hit those surprisingly often. An open area is always preferred even with weather.

I suspect the current loading area will just be moved onto the old watermelon land and further buildings will go up where the current loading occurs.

 

[Drumheller]

How come that in the first video Sandy was upset for the gap of a door repeating countinously that you can't burn such a great project for such a stupid thing?

And as owner of a 2021 i'll rather not talk on the topic in front to such an apology, time wasted.

Different vehicles. Watch the videos.

 

[FireMedic]

Dr-know-it-all (he’s actually a PhD of Physics) breaks down the SAAS robotaxi case and his results are not a surprise to most of us here; but very exciting.

This is a good video to show that friend (we all have at least one) who struggles to see the future.

Spoiler alert: TSLA will make $Trillions on just this part of our business; forget about energy, automation, manufacturing etc...put any PE multiple on that Wall Street!

 

[lafrisbee]

My wife said that Tesla is most likely doing a Superbowl commercial showing off the latest S and X models.

Last year Tesla had a very strong presence at the Super Bowl. I was over the moon about it.
Do you remember? around 3-6 of the Players mentioned they drove Teslas during one of the "fluff" pieces.

 

[aubreymcfato]

I'll put it also in the right thread, but given that we all get asked about anything Elon tweets, here you go:
A Carbon Dioxide Removal primer
Foreword • Carbon Dioxide Removal Primer

 

[Artful Dodger]

.


I am inclined to think the new Giga-Shanghai structure is for something else than a loading area:
1) Regardless of the solution, there is a requirement for a 2D-structure with M by N cells, where each cell can hold a car, and where M is the maximum number of trucks under concurrent loading and N is the number of cars that fit on one truck.
2) For this M-by-N 2D structure a parking lot is sufficient, cheap and when needed easy to adjust in size.
3) With land available to the East I see little reason for CapEx to go multi-level with this,
4) As for the labor, the finished cars could with relative ease be programmed to drive themselves to the right waiting cell - and from there forwards, up onto the corresponding truck.

I think the solution for Model Y batteries is already in place (after all, they're already in production). The "Battery Workshop" was the 2nd structure to be built at Giga Shanghai, and it now includes a bridge on the 2nd story over to the Model Y assembly hall, entering at about the place where you'd need to do the marriage between the battey pack and the body. BTW, the "Motor Workshop" shares this bridge via the "Battery Workshop".

I think the structure at the North end of the assembly hall would be too much of an afterthought to be for that purpose. Batteries are so central to Tesla it would be nearly unthinkable to leave construction to support that component to last (indeed, AFTER production started).

 

[FireMedic]

Sorry for keep posting videos. But there is just so much great content out there right now by some seriously under appreciated producers. This fella has quite the dry humor that I suspect many here will enjoy.

Stay juicy.

 

[Nocturnal]

Last year Tesla had a very strong presence at the Super Bowl. I was over the moon about it.
Do you remember? around 3-6 of the Players mentioned they drove Teslas during one of the "fluff" pieces.

Just wait until the Cybertruck is out. Every athlete/musician around will be driving one.

 

[CorneliusXX]

There's been very litte speculation about the purpose of the of the new steel-frame building currently under construction on the immediate North end of the Model Y assembly building. So let's speculate.

I suggest that Tesla already has all the major component making facilities in place (Model Y deliveries have already begun across China so we know they're building cars). What they don't have yet is a novel, high-speed, efficient, and low-cost method of loading their production onto car carriers before being trucked to delivery centers.

I speculate that the new building in question is a high-tech car-park of sorts, but with the ability to sort and deliver 6-8 car batches of vehicles suitable for loading onto transports, as follows:

• Tesla produces 3 variants of Model Y, with 2 interiors, and 5 body colors
• speculating that "Performance" Y is only available with white interior (advice?)
  
• that implies 25 combinations of options for Model Y, or 25 separate 'bins'
• a car sorting/delivery structure would need at least 25 lines fed by the factory

Do we see any of this in steel? Let's look at 2:59 Jason Yang's Jan 21, 201 video:

• Building is of exceptionally sturdy construction (lot's of steel)
• it appears there might be truck bays on the North side (closest to camera)
• there are 12.5 of those 'bay' looking openings (one 'bay' is half-width)
• if each bay is backed by 2 lines of sorted cars, that's 25 lines
• bay width appears to support this (compare to mobile cranes for scale)

View attachment 629980

Of course (and I repeat), all this is speculation. So far:

• no evidence yet of any elevator structures as required to move 2 ton vehicles from top floor to bottom (possible at top-right of image is an external structure)
  
• throughput would have to be very quick:
  • appears to be length to buffer ~32 cars in each bin, or 800 total
    
  • that's about 1 day's worth of production @ 275K units/year
• not obvious yet how batch sorting for 6-8 cars per trailer would work, although construction continues on the North side.

Not saying this will happen; am saying this this the kind of 'out-of-the-box' solution I've learned to expect from Tesla engineering.

Cheers!

What happens if the add another paint colour?

Presumably they would sort by delivery destination rather than vehicle variant - so not sure the number of bays matters for that purpose. but I agree they could be building some sort of vehicle loading system given the limited parking they have now that they are doubling output with the Y.

What do you think the purpose is for the other new building going up which has an extremely wide span in the middle?

.

 

[jerry33]

What do you think the purpose is for the other new building going up which has an extremely wide span in the middle?
View attachment 630002.

Remodeled Cybertruck.

 

[ke6jph]

Dr-know-it-all (he’s actually a PhD of Physics) breaks down the SAAS robotaxi case and his results are not a surprise to most of us here; but very exciting.

This is a good video to show that friend (we all have at least one) who struggles to see the future.

Spoiler alert: TSLA will make $Trillions on just this part of our business; forget about energy, automation, manufacturing etc...put any PE multiple on that Wall Street!
https://youtu.be/W0w0mdYIlqc

Great article, seems all of my friends/family still struggle with putting money in TSLA even after our Model Y purchase. I have shared our investment details for years with our friends and family to no avail. Now, after the price run up, all of them say “it is too late to invest”. I show them that we just purchased 149 more shares as a example of the faith that we have and they just smile with the same non-belief as before . This forum has helped make us more money on paper than we ever thought possible, and for that we are forever grateful .

 

[Artful Dodger]

What happens if the add another paint colour?

Mayhem.

What do you think the purpose is for the other new building going up which has an extremely wide span in the middle?

View attachment 630002.

I noticed there were no square concrete footings/machine bases built in this area before construction of the steel shell began, so unlikely to be a component assembly building.

There's a lot of heavy steel there however, so I'll wager a guess that it's a warehouse structure.

 

[JoRoMo]

But it's unlikely, at least under U.S. Consumer law, that Telsa cars will ever drive themselves unattended to meet their new owners. That entrains a lot of product liablility and damage claims risk. The current 'touchless' delivery is likely the closest we'll see.

Cheers!

Hmm, that would also apply to («true») FSD with us sleeping in the back seat, so I guess we need to wait and see how good it really gets over the next few years...

Edit: And not to forget, all empty Robotaxies roaming about.

 

[MTL_HABS1909]

Bay Area has only one inventory Model S left, no Model X.

Anyone seeing excessive inventory anywhere else? Probably they are waiting for return window to pass before announcing anything? Will we hear anything on the earnings call?

Now since inventory is gone, I don’t see any risk of Osborne.

Wonder when they would finally come out and fight the rumors:
“Sorry for the waiting lads, there is no refresh to be seen here, we are just merging the GA lines to make some floor room, and we have been taking our time, since it’s Q1, no demand anyways.”

This is a good site to check inventory. Seems very low which is a good thing.

https://ev-cpo.com/hunter/

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Excited for the cost of a well-used blue/tan Model S in the older configuration to go down

 

[FireMedic]

Tesla Model 3 Is 2020's Best-Selling EV in China, Company Achieves 11% Market Share

 

[MXWing]

Great article, seems all of my friends/family still struggle with putting money in TSLA even after our Model Y purchase. I have shared our investment details for years with our friends and family to no avail. Now, after the price run up, all of them say “it is too late to invest”. I show them that we just purchased 149 more shares as a example of the faith that we have and they just smile with the same non-belief as before . This forum has helped make us more money on paper than we ever thought possible, and for that we are forever grateful .

He who dares.. wins
Scared money don’t make money

Plenty of examples of those who watch the world go by and those who change the world. Some people do nothing but exist.

They all own TSLA anyway through index. Might as well take a higher concentration of the better sp500 stocks.

People hate you if they follow you and lose money. People hate you if they didn’t follow you and didn’t make money.

Its no win a lot of the time.

A friend who puts his money where his mouth is worthy of following.

 

[capster]

Yes, a flood of FUD hit Seeking Alpha this week, and not just there. Yahoo News teemed with hit pieces, including this boatload of BS:

Opinion: Why Tesla is not a safe stock for long-term investors

...One does not have to be an EV bear to have concerns about Tesla’s current valuation. Assuming a 22% compound annual growth rate in EV sales volumes over the next 10 years implies that Tesla is trading at more than 60x 2030 EPS....​

22% CAGR? Has the author noticed how many factories are ramping and opening in the next few months?

...Tesla’s first-mover status has theoretically bred an insurmountable lead in battery IP and supply chain, which should lead to lowest-cost production. Once lowest-cost production is established, Tesla will then reduce consumer prices and undercut rivals right as the S-curve of EV adoption kicks in....​

Theoretically? Has the author noticed that Tesla already did this?

...Tesla is expected to increase its sales from 500,000 cars per year today to close to 4 million cars by 2030, generating automobile gross margins that are 1% to 4% higher than its peers....
​

Well, you get the idea.

Behavioral psychologists have studied a phenomenon they call "the extinction burst." When a creature (hungry rat, screaming toddler, FUDing analyst) stops being rewarded for a behavior, the creature often intensifies it in a burst right before he gives up and the behavior stops (goes extinct). The rat beats the Jesus outta the lever that used to deliver food, the toddler throws a louder tantrum, and the analyst... hmm.

At some point, maybe when new gigafactories are complete and more announced, or when Tesla Energy sales skyrocket with no end in sight, or when Tesla Network launches without lidar, the FUDsters will notice that Tesla can't be stopped. Maybe we're starting to see that now.

Interesting, er, association . If I may take it a bit further, the "journalists" and analysts are the levers.

We can only hope those shorts and late-to-the-party tracking fund managers who are pounding those levers experience the, um, extinction of their funds.

The drizzle of drivel has turned into something of a downpour reeking of fear sweat and desperation. Is that tantrum echoing in the sewers of the information superhighway yours Mr. Burry?

 

[CorneliusXX]

Mod: edited at request of @CorneliusXX to warn readers that this post is incorrect. --ggr

Apparently VW are expected to sell around 800k EVs this year. That's broadly in line with Tesla's expectations (although the e-golf and e-up are far smaller vehicles). I'm a little surprised they could hit that sort of volume this year.

At an average of c.50KWh per vehicle that's around 40GWh of cells required - which is around what GF1 is expected to produce. I'm surprised VW has been able to secure that much supply.