Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Artful Dodger]

Something occurred to me, is there any reason a "battery layer" could not be built into every solar panel/solar roof tile? Further expanding the capacity of storage at any given PV installation?

Well, other than the obvious reason that the raw materials are all going into the batteries for cars for the near future.

Once raw materials and battery production have ramped would this be a far-fetched idea, or might doing so be a way to increase overall storage and add value to the PV products?

This is mostly OT, so I won't dive very deep. It's true that every solar cell is a 'pile' consisting of an anode and a cathode like a battery cell, but the difficulty comes in matching the voltage potentials between the solar cell (typically 0.5v at 25C) and the chemical storage (varies betwn 2.7v - 4.2v for current tesla cells).

So still requires DC-DC pwr electronics to achieve this a a product. You'd want a MPP tracker and perhaps put the DC-AC inverter on the cell too. But, do you really want a lithium battery fire risk on your roof?

TL;dr Tesla engineers know what they're doing.

Cheers!

 

[ZeApelido]

In my defence I hadn't even had my charge yet.

Edit: Kaffe! I hadn't even had my kaffe yet!

Buggysoft...

Only 1 Kaffe? Everyone knows that Scandinavians love their 5 to 10 "fika breaks" per day?

 

[MikeAtkinson]

Gary Black has updated his earnings model:

https://twitter.com/garyblack00/status/1362727244481908739

I’ve updated my $TSLA FY’21 earnings model. I raised my 2021 vols to 800K (from 765K) to reflect high odds of $7.5K EV being restored 2H; trimmed avg ASP to $50.9K (from $51.2K); and increased Adj EPS to $4.50 (from $4.30). FY’22-FY’25 ests are unch’d. My $TSLA PT remains $960.

Not sure why he thinks that the tax credit will increase sales, or why it would reduce ASP. Also adjusting EPS while not adjusting PT seems strange.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Gary Black has updated his earnings model:

https://twitter.com/garyblack00/status/1362727244481908739



Not sure why he thinks that the tax credit will increase sales, or why it would reduce ASP. Also adjusting EPS while not adjusting PT seems strange.

Gary's great putting numbers that someone else has given him to the determine value of a stock. He's terrible at understand a company and thus "his" numbers or estimates are wildly off. Anyone putting 2022 deliveries at 1.48 million should be laughed out of the building

Also, you really shouldn't follow him anymore. Go back to his posts over the past week. He was straight up spewing FUD. It's become very clear he puts out his numbers and opinions for his own self serving purposes, not to help/inform others

 

[scaesare]

Time to hire 5,000 more coders. /s

And buy a crapload more serial cables...

 

[Unpilot]

Red...damn I hate that color....unless it is when my GF wears it.

 

[Prunesquallor]

"According to the Dutch financial newspaper „Het Financieele Dagblad“, #VW may have to recall ALL electric ID cars (#ID3 and #ID4) due to major software issues."
https://twitter.com/ceo_plus_ch/status/1362749294219001883?s=21

 

[Khamul]

On reddit there's this thread in r/murderedbywords:

It is simply filled to the brim with comments about Teslas, solar roof, power walls, camp mode, games in the car, EVs and very few negative comments. It just keeps going. It's one long organic ad. I wonder how much you'd have to pay to get an equal amount of awareness using dinosaur ads.

 

[Mengy]

Gary's great putting numbers that someone else has given him to the determine value of a stock. He's terrible at understand a company and thus "his" numbers or estimates are wildly off. Anyone putting 2022 deliveries at 1.48 million should be laughed out of the building

I'm curious, what is so laughable about Gary's estimates of 1.48 million deliveries in 2022? Tesla's own guidance calls for 50% increase YoY, that would put 2021 at ~ 750K and 2022 at ~1.13 million. Gary seems to be bullish on Tesla and is expecting them to overperform their guidance.

Are you saying its laughable because Gary is too bullish? Or are you saying you think he is laughably low?

 

[dl003]

Red...damn I hate that color....unless it is when my GF wears it.

Which Gigafactory are you referring to?

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Not sure why he thinks that the tax credit will increase sales, or why it would reduce ASP. Also adjusting EPS while not adjusting PT seems strange.

Why are we paying attention to one random moron who clearly knows less that the avg poster here? Many questions!

As to the principle of increasing sales or decreasing ASP.....I think the impact of a revised and greatly "improved" tax credit program will be so powerful we won't be able to guess which way any of these measurables will move.

Yes, Tesla has seemingly tried to get out in front of it with mild low-end price cutting, but what if the tax credit pulls forward consumer sentiment by 6 months to a year? That kind of change to an already exponentially growing market is immeasurable. A difference of three months might be night and day in terms of ASP or sales growth.

Overall, I feel we're obligated to see this tax credit change(and it's impact on Tesla/TSLA) as mildly good until there's clear evidence to the contrary. As much as we don't like seeing Detroit dragged into the new world rather than left behind......technically that's a main pillar of the Master Plan. 2010 Elon is so annoying in 2021.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

I'm curious, what is so laughable about Gary's estimates of 1.48 million deliveries in 2022? Tesla's own guidance calls for 50% increase YoY, that would put 2021 at ~ 750K and 2022 at ~1.13 million. Gary seems to be bullish on Tesla and is expecting them to overperform their guidance.

Are you saying its laughable because Gary is too bullish? Or are you saying you think he is laughably low?

This actually is exactly what I was talking about in saying Gary doesn't understand the company and no Tesla's guidance wasn't for 50% growth this year and next. They clearly stated they materially expect to exceed 50% this year and next year. If you understand the the production expansion the company is doing right now, you understand how Tesla will have 2 million production capacity in 2022, maybe even higher. You also know that they will have their 4680 cells in production at multiple locations (Kato, Giga 1, Giga Austin). So they will have the battery capacity actually fullfill that 2 million production capacity

Knowing all of the intricate parts of the company makes it abundantly clear that an estimate of 1.48 million vehicles for 2022 is way too low. People informed on the company rightfully expect 2022 growth to actually be higher than 2021 growth.....and most of us already think 75%+ growth in 2021 is a done deal.

Not saying Gary is a "bear". I think his bearish comments over the past week or so have more to do with him trying to create a self prophecy that he was right about his call at the "top". But he's still uninformed

 

[jerry33]

I'm curious, what is so laughable about Gary's estimates of 1.48 million deliveries in 2022? Tesla's own guidance calls for 50% increase YoY, that would put 2021 at ~ 750K and 2022 at ~1.13 million. Gary seems to be bullish on Tesla and is expecting them to overperform their guidance.

Are you saying its laughable because Gary is too bullish? Or are you saying you think he is laughably low?

The issue with overly bullish estimates is that it gives more ammunition to the shorts to call a miss. Gary has other issues as well.

 

[Big Time]

Come on TSLA daddy needs a new pair of shoes....and some real estate

 

[TheTalkingMule]

This actually is exactly what I was talking about in saying Gary doesn't understand the company and no Tesla's guidance wasn't for 50% growth this year and next. They clearly stated they materially expect to exceed 50% this year and next year. If you understand the the production expansion the company is doing right now, you understand how Tesla will have 2 million production capacity in 2022, maybe even higher. You also know that they will have their 4680 cells in production at multiple locations (Kato, Giga 1, Giga Austin). So they will have the battery capacity actually fullfill that 2 million production capacity

Knowing all of the intricate parts of the company makes it abundantly clear that an estimate of 1.48 million vehicles for 2022 is way too low. People informed on the company rightfully expect 2022 growth to actually be higher than 2021 growth.....and most of us already think 75%+ growth in 2021 is a done deal

I'm confused. We're looking for 900k in 2021 on a very rosy side. 50% on top of that in 2022 is 135k. Have you taken your temperature today? You may be coming down with a case of TMC-itis!

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

I'm confused. We're looking for 900k in 2021 on a very rosy side. 50% on top of that in 2022 is 135k. Have you taken your temperature today? You may be coming down with a case of TMC-itis!

Wait do some people here actually think 2022's growth will be less than 2021???

I'm in the camp that thinks 2022 growth rate will be higher than 2021 and I feel there's multiple things to back that up.

And I think 900k for 2021 is realistic. 1 million is rosy

 

[bkp_duke]

Wait do some people here actually think 2022's growth will be less than 2021???

I'm in the camp that thinks 2022 growth rate will be higher than 2021 and I feel there's multiple things to back that up.

And I think 900k for 2021 is realistic. 1 million is rosy

2022 will have Austin and Berlin at or near 100% ramp. It's going to be the mother of all spankings for ICE manufacturers.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Also when I talk growth rates, I'm talking true growth rate - Revenue. 2022 will be somewhat skewed because you have Semi and top line Cybertruck skewing ASP higher as well as Tesla Energy finally getting enough battery supply to start a serious growth curve.

The emphasis on delivery numbers being the way to tell revenue growth will deteriorate as Tesla Energy and their other project finally scale................and we can finally not have to care so much about the first 4 days of every quarter

 

[Khamul]

Here's a video from Sandy Munro, providing some background on his interview with Elon. It's mostly focused on SpaceX, but there's some nice bits on why Elon completely beats every other CEO. That bit is from 6:20 onward.

 

[Knightshade]

As to the principle of increasing sales or decreasing ASP.....I think the impact of a revised and greatly "improved" tax credit program will be so powerful we won't be able to guess which way any of these measurables will move.

Yes, Tesla has seemingly tried to get out in front of it with mild low-end price cutting, but what if the tax credit pulls forward consumer sentiment by 6 months to a year? That kind of change to an already exponentially growing market is immeasurable. A difference of three months might be night and day in terms of ASP or sales growth..

Do you believe Tesla is supply, not demand, limited?

If so- how would the credit help increase sales?

They already have more buyers than cars.


If you believe the supply limited story then the only company the proposed credit extension helps as far as vehicle sales is GM.

They can go from offering $8500 cash back on Bolts to only $1500 back- pocketing the $7000 difference.



Now- one place the credit could help Tesla is margins and add ons.

If you're getting $7000 back from the IRS you might be more inclined to spring for 10k FSD than you otherwise would have been.

Or you might go for the Performance instead of the LR since the IRS is basically paying for the upgrade.

But it can't help them with selling more cars unless you don't believe the supply-limited story.