Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[LiveLong&Profit]

Odd that it is referred to as "Model Y Factory" and doesn't mention Cybertruck

Well, Tesla knows how to make Y in large volumes. Cybertruck... is super cool. But it is big, heavy and probably needs a huge battery pack. So, like the semi, we are still waiting for batteries to become plentiful.

 

[Buckminster]

Typical. Tesla Q1 report beats expectations and the stock is down 2.7% in after-market trading.

If you wanna help - show FSD some love - the market awaits your authority.

 

[Fishy Fish]

Don't forget Tesla has raised prices twice now since the very end of Q1. So likely that gross margins would continue to improve next quarter even with no S/X

I wouldn't be surprised if with the transition to the new model S&X that they find some efficiencies in production and can increase installed capacity. Perhaps up to 120000/yr or so...

 

[Todd Burch]

My guess is that the improved margins are due in large part to the integration of the casting machines. More of that coming .

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

I wouldn't be surprised if with the transition to the new model S&X that they find some efficiencies in production and can increase installed capacity. Perhaps up to 120000/yr or so...

I honestly think they could potentially do 30% gross margin in Q2 IF they start selling a decent number of the Plaid S

 

[hobbes]

My favorite slide - gets rid of the quarter-to-quarter noise and shows long term trend nicely:

 

[Prunesquallor]

Pretty hard for outsiders to estimate.

Regulary credits - way up
...

= complete and utter lack of credible competition

 

[Mengy]

Revenue % increases between Q1 vs Q4 in a given year:

2018: 112% increase, $3.41B -> $7.23B
2019: 63% increase, $4.54B -> $7.38
2020: 79% increase, $5.99B -> $10.74B
2021: XX% increase, $10.3B -> ????

Using really sophisticated math, I averaged out the % increases (even though there's a high likelihood it'll go over). It comes out to 84% if they have an average year in 2021 in terms of Q1 -> Q4 growth.

Q4 projected revenue (on back of the envelope math): $19B. That'd be an annualized run-rate of $76B at the end of Q4. Just looking at standard multiples the company is trading at now (~20x):

Thats ~$1.5T market cap company by end of 2021.

Source (revenue): Tesla Revenue 2009-2020 | TSLA

Yep. I think by the end of 2021 we are going to be a bit amazed at how much growth Tesla experienced. Remember, Q1 will be the worst quarter of this year.

 

[diplomat33]

If you wanna help - show FSD some love - the market awaits your authority.
View attachment 657238

What do you mean? I already purchased the FSD option on my Tesla. Tesla got my money.

 

[jhm]

FCF is impacted by the BTC purchase, no? Or is it just cash on hand? I could definitely see that messing with some algos that just scan the big numbers and model change over time.

Should not be. It is neither an operational expense nor a capital expense. It should be recorded as a financial investment.

 

[aronth5]

Waiting to see if Elon has something "definitive" about the next phase of FSD. His past statements have been a miss in this area so lets hope we hear something that could move the stock price.

 

[Drumheller]

Maybe this is weighing on $TSLA, many thought Toyota were teaming up with Tesla, instead they piss $550M down the drain on Waymo

View attachment 657228

They overpaid.

I'll sell my Model Y with a print-out of Consumer Reports how-to instructions on self-driving for $499million.

 

[MD70]

This graphic is my favourite part. It is astounding how many people commenting on Tesla do not understand this. I intend to save this and post it whenever I see no demand comments.

 

[traxila]

I think best chance of a SP rocket from here is Elon giving battery guidance on call. If he says the ramp is going great or better than expected that could be a real trigger for a blast.

Speaking of which, what is up with those batteries? Is all about the batteries, right?

 

[SOULPEDL]

Bought 100 at 719

Why not...

 

[zach_]

Something to file under the 'very mildly interesting' category; the trailing 12 month (non-GAAP) EPS should be exactly $1.00. Which means for the next quarter the P/E ratio will just be the stock price

 

[Krugerrand]

View attachment 657237

Demand issues ?

But advertise, eh?

 

[The Accountant]

There are many variances to my Q1 estimate but here are the big ticket items:

 

[H Mak]

"We believe Model Y can become not just a category leader, but also the best-selling vehicle of any kind globally."

I'm going to need a few minutes to let this sink in

 

[RobStark]

But advertise, eh?

What is the take rate on FSD where marginal profit is 100% on a $10k sale?