Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[woodisgood]

Are we not going to get a “production is hard and other advice” tweet from Elon marking the occasion?

 

[PeterJA]

The ~1050-1060 range is the number that Wall Street seems to be comfortable with right now. It follows the valuations held through the summer and into October with the consensus estimates that moved up after earnings(that we all know are still too low). I think we have found our support level at 1000 and here is where the 'value' has settled. Now to just wait for the next catalyst and the dust to settle on the Elon share saga (which could be a catalyst itself).

Sounds reasonable, but did the S&P-benchmarked funds get the millions of shares they (reportedly) need? Now that the panic is over, the recovery can't be over until they do. The China numbers may be sinking into skulls with every passing hour. Even permabear John Murphy of Bank of America raised his price target to $1200. Funds underweight in TSLA can't play chicken forever.

 

[lafrisbee]

I will forever be mindful of the obvious manipulation of the media this past week.
A week ago it was so bizarre to experience the media's change in the narrative of Tesla. They dramatically went from "Not worth it" to "Best Ever just days before $150/SP drop in two days. (Yes, it boggles my mind so much I can't understand if I got that right, and it is only simple subtraction. A ONE HUNDRED AND FIFTY DOLLAR DROP IN TWO DAYS.)
ONE
HUNDRED and
FIFTY
!
1230.29 ( Friday afternoon)
-1074
156.29
----- and in less than an hour we are up more than $80


Why didn't someone warn that TSLA was a volatile stock? /s

Luke, You are an idiot...
That should be TWO HUNDRED AND FIFTY DOLLAHS. 256.29

In my defense I was in disbelief that the SP moved so violently. The math in my head came to 250-ish. I failed at using a calculator.
And also ants are not used to the Base-10 number system. We do not have fingers. And we are really only good at multiplying. And then only one of us (The Queen).

 

[Curt Renz]

At the top of the hour, a poorly received 30-yr treasury bond auction results were published. That sent treasury yields upward and the popular stock market averages downward. This also affected TSLA.

 

[redan]

Maybe we can glean from this that Elon is done selling? He's getting frisky again:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1458495237396041739

 

[ZachF]

At the top of the hour, a poorly received 30-yr treasury bond auction results were published. That sent treasury yields upward and the popular stock market averages downward. This also affected TSLA.

It also appears that Evergrande may be officially heading towards bankruptcy.

 

[henchman24]

Sounds reasonable, but did the S&P-benchmarked funds get the millions of shares they (reportedly) need? Now that the panic is over, the recovery can't be over until they do. The China numbers may be sinking into skulls with every passing hour. Even permabear John Murphy of Bank of America raised his price target to $1200. Funds underweight in TSLA can't play chicken forever.

Those are the funds that are likely gobbling up all of Elon's shares right now, but they have some time and will add through the quarter... where estimates and increases will likely continue to increase. There will be continual upward pressure on the stock for the next two months, but I wouldn't see it as really dramatic until Q4 blows away estimates and we start this cycle all over again in Jan/Feb.

 

[Drumheller]

NPR - 1.5 hours ago: COP26 sees pledges to transition to electric vehicles, but key countries are mum

Excerpt:

A group of governments, automakers and others have signed on to an agreement to transition to 100% zero-emission sales of new car and van by 2040 globally and by 2035 in "leading markets."

Fifteen countries also agreed to a separate pledge to work toward 100% zero-emission sales of new trucks and buses by 2040.

The agreements, both of which were announced at the COP26 climate conference in Glasgow, were hailed as a significant step toward decarbonizing the automotive industry. Cars and trucks emit roughly one fifth of U.S. greenhouse gas emissions, according to the Union of Concerned Scientists.

But the agreements were also noteworthy for the names that were missing. The world's largest auto markets, including the U.S., China, Germany, South Korea and Japan, were absent from the pledges, and the top two global automakers (Toyota and Volkswagen) also didn't sign.

VW, Toyota, and other legacy manufacturers can't go out of business fast enough. Many of the management should be in prison. They've had a choice every day for decades. And they kept choosing to actively harm humanity in order to chase oil money.

 

[Discoducky]

Happy for RIVN stock, but I am looking at puts that don't exist yet, I'm conflicted...

 

[Drezil]

Happy for RIVN stock, but I am looking at puts that don't exist yet, I'm conflicted...

View attachment 731502

Had the same idea & the same disappointment ...

 

[thesmokingman]

I had a limit order @106, then cut it to 100, then 95, now at 85. Still over priced...

 

[SOULPEDL]

Had the same idea & the same disappointment ...

In case Elon turns around and short Rivian, so no contracts? Is this normal 1st day?

 

[DaveG_NJ]

Options won't price until 5 days of closing data is available. I'd consider puts as well, but not jumping in on IPO day's rise and fall.

I went on a 1700 mile road trip this week, hitting exactly 17 Superchargers. No one has what Tesla has. It could not have been easier to use. I think Farley was right in grudgingly giving Tesla some credit: "No one does it better."

 

[Gigapress]

There's a whole forum for the boring company here-

The Boring Company

Discussion about The Boring Company and related topics

teslamotorsclub.com

That said- where would the rail physically be installed? Check out a map of vegas sometime. Ground level real estate is expensive AF.

This would move people around almost entirely using otherwise worthless/useless space below ground.

They do have an above-ground monorail BTW. It sucks and few use it.

I just created a new post in the Boring Co TMC forum with a link to my own analysis on this. I believe I probably have the world's most detailed and well-organized spreadsheet on this topic. I say this because I've spent hundreds of hours researching the Boring Company and doing this analysis, and in the process of doing that research I haven't found anything comparable out on the internet, and also because it's currently a niche topic that's widely misunderstood. The closest is the Youtube channel "A Boring Revolution", from which I got a lot of my info and which I recommend watching.

To keep this thread more directly Tesla-related I suggest the conversation migrate to that thread.

The New Thread
https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/boring-co-in-depth-analysis.246319/

The Spreadsheet
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet...q_ceck-xmb299UYffA5xNsFcU/edit#gid=1393227923

 

[Ogre]

Here’s one for comparisons that make no sense.

Musk made more money this week selling personal stock than Rivian did on their IPO.

 

[Thekiwi]

Unlikely as the constraint is Model 3 line production capacity. From the figures over the past few months the MIC 3 line seems to have a capacity of around 800 cars/day. There was a 1 week national holiday in October so 28.9k would be significantly more than 1k/day (assuming there was no significant inventory drawdown - improbable as there was significant drawdown in September as part of the end of quarter push). There have been some rumours of potential capacity increases but from memory this was around a 10-15% increase - to around 6000/week.

These wholesale figures give us a good indication (and it is a very positive indication) of trend but the production figures later this month will allow more precision.

There is one thing about the China numbers that hasn’t been mentioned by anyone. Everyone is saying that the numbers are unlikely to include any cars made in September (everyone is saying inventory drawdown was already done) so the china number for October should closely match October production.

However no one seems to have noticed that in the first week of October, when the factory was not producing cars, a ship of cars left Shanghai for export to Europe. None of those exports were produced in October, but were included in Octobers china export number. That’s likely somewhere in the region of 5k cars (+/- 1k maybe?), all of which were produced in September.

 

[jhm]

Wow, Tesla's SP is really paddling hard against the current! Nasdaq is down 1.8%, but Tesla holds on to a 1% gain.

 

[Lessmog]

Wow, Tesla's SP is really paddling hard against the current! Nasdaq is down 1.8%, but Tesla holds on to a 1% gain.

So, today's Leitmotif will be Dueling Banjos?

 

[Spacep0d]

I'm just glad to see how strong TSLA is despite the 10% selloff from Musk which must have certainly happened (though we'll know in a day or two if it did).

 

[EVMeister]

Wow, Tesla's SP is really paddling hard against the current! Nasdaq is down 1.8%, but Tesla holds on to a 1% gain.

Jinxed like a pro.