Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[aGreenGuy]

…why crash the SP when this could have been facilitated though the banks or dark pools?

Well, I could think of a reason. In the employee stock purchase plan, I believe employees get to buy stock at a (15%?) discount from the lowest price through the quarter. If you are staying long, short term «stock crash» has a very positive impact on employee’s returns. One could say they are entering the market with perfect timing.

The employees are Teslas (and TSLAs) most valuable asset, so they *should* be rewarded well

 

[SN_8]

I think the issue here isn't the selling, but rather the mechanism and frequency... why crash the SP when this could have been facilitated though the banks or dark pools?

One potential reason floated here:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1519978873085214720

 

[ZachF]

So here is the question of the day… how long until Tesla passes Amazon in market cap?

 

[larmor]

So here is the question of the day… how long until Tesla passes Amazon in market cap?

After Tesla makes the van because it will be A cost saving on daily use, which Amazon will need. And rivian will not be able to deliver enough in time

 

[OrthoSurg]

The tweet we needed for the stock to be +3% premarket

https://twitter.com/x/status/1519850299757846530

I regret only buying 10 shares from Elon. Should have went for 100 or more. I wasn’t greedy enough.

 

[Mengy]

So here is the question of the day… how long until Tesla passes Amazon in market cap?

I think it will happen late 2023 to early 2024.

 

[OrthoSurg]

Well I did say that Elon dumps his shares using about zero strategy as shown with the 10% batch he sold.

I would say that his share dump being this fast was terrible for the stock price but he is now done and the overhang is gone. If he were to sell on the open market slowly and randomly, then we just randomly get Form 4s with no end in sight. Now he can actually talk about the end the minute the form 4s are out so we can move on.

This SP volatility from big chunk of sales is making TSLA impossible to trade successfully for option traders. These amount of shares dumped on the open market make huge buying opportunities for long term investors though.

 

[ZachF]

I think it will happen late 2023 to early 2024.

That late?

Tesla is basically already making more profit than Amazon.

 

[elasalle]

The tweet we needed for the stock to be +3% premarket

https://twitter.com/x/status/1519850299757846530

I regret only buying 10 shares from Elon. Should have went for 100 or more. I wasn’t greedy enough.

There’s still time before confirmation that Shanghai is in full swing

 

[mongo]

Well I was wrong, I thought Elon would fund these via loans against his Tesla stock

He did.
12.5B is liability against Elon's stock
21B is equity by Elon and others (Elon's current TWTR stake is ~4B at $54.20 (he netted 5B? last year), just raised 4B more)
Rest (up to 13B approved) are loans of various types.

 

[UncaNed]

This SP volatility from big chunk of sales is making TSLA impossible to trade successfully for option traders. These amount of shares dumped on the open market make huge buying opportunities for long term investors though.

Impossible for option traders using The Wheel, you mean? What about those just buying and holding onto LEAPS?

Edit-
Thank you, @OrthoSurg , for clearing up that this is about short term option trading (something I'll never adequately grasp, so I leave it alone). My LEAPS are just like long-term HODLING shares, by comparison, other than those pesky expiration dates, which I obsessively trade to later expiration dates.

And thank you @saniflash , for clearing up that I might not be missing out on so much after all. I'm trading January 2024 LEAPS for June 2024's to try to mitigate expiration for longest possible ladder on the chasms on recessions. If only I knew when to hold, when to fold... Goal being, share accumulation, of course.

 

[jerry33]

Confirmation that he’s done selling should help with a big rebound tomorrow.

Why can’t the guy prearrange stock trades with funds that want to buy TSLA instead of dumping it on the open market like he does? Gary Black has suggested alternative less harmful methods multiple times.

He's obviously listened to all the TMC posts of "I want the stock to go down so I can purchase at a bargain price". I made a couple of small purchases over the last few days.

 

[rsm287]

We are all aware that Elon ultimately wants to use his wealth to fund the colonization of Mars and make life multi-planetary (after solving sustainable transportation and energy on Earth).

A bullish way to look at these sales is that he believes that TSLA has so much more upside that he can afford to sell a small portion of his shares now (to try to fix other problems facing humanity).

This realisation may have come after seeing even greater potential for Tesla than he previously thought…..beyond vehicles, energy and Robotaxis….to AGI, Tesla Bot…and other yet unannounced projects down the road.

In his own words from the Q1 call:

…the future is very exciting. I’ve never been more optimistic or excited about Tesla’s future than I am right now.

Strap in, because this is just the beginning!

 

[OrthoSurg]

Impossible for option traders using The Wheel, you mean? What about those just buying and holding onto LEAPS?

Yes, you are right. I meant for short term option sellers. It might be the one time in history Historical volatility will be higher than Implied volatility. We will see in retrospect.

 

[Speedr117]

I think there are two reasons for the sale now. One, unlike what Wall Street thinks, he want to get the deal done ASAP. The other is, he knows the stock price is going to go up with the stock split and doesn't want to look like it is being done to increase the stock price before his sale (i.e. it'd look bad).

BTW, Yahoo finance STILL hasn't updated Tesla's PE number!

 

[saniflash]

Impossible for option traders using The Wheel, you mean? What about those just buying and holding onto LEAPS?

The Wheel sucks, I've backtested it and it's generated less return since IPO than just holding straight stock.

LEAPS in my experience very good if levering up while going down and levering down while going up. Key is to have enough time to expiration to ride out any short-term movements against your position.

 

[Singuy]

This SP volatility from big chunk of sales is making TSLA impossible to trade successfully for option traders. These amount of shares dumped on the open market make huge buying opportunities for long term investors though.

Actually I think it's Elon and many external events that make Tesla so attractive to option traders. No one wants to buy options when IV is crushed. There's nothing to gamble on. However these external events make option sellers a bit more difficult as they are looking for less volatility after options have been sold.

 

[UkNorthampton]

Buying off all politicians would be way cheaper than buying twitter. Maybe Elon’s not so smart…

One time purchase vs continual rental where prices keep getting bid up while quality deteriorates. You can't buy politicians, you can only rent them.

 

[lascavarian]

My investment question is related to the difference between a 9 to 1 dividend vs a 19 to 1 dividend or more?

Specifically, would the 20x expansion of shares minimize the SP swings when the next whale has a selling plan? Or is it only % that matters and makes no difference?

Seems to me it is more difficult to generate large waves in a much larger pond. Comments?

 

[Prunesquallor]

Bigger picture:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1519933977255194627

Tesla Powerwall tech will power up two ambulant clinics in Irpin and Borodyanka.