Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Krugerrand]

Being TSLA investors and EV owners has shielded most of TMC from much of the current bad economic forces, but ultimately there is a recession because wages are declining at a 4-5% pace, the most since Carter. This is why economic sentiment is so low.

Please specify in which business segments these wages are declining. I’m driving past employee wanted signs with wages listed and they are not going down. I’m paying a mountain crew solid wages to build the compound. If lawyer wages are declining, that’s not really an issue, is it?

Additionally, lumber prices have come down a lot and supply is a non-issue. Steal prices have not come down much, supply mostly non-issue. Needed some big semi-custom doors that were said to be 2 months out at one place, 10 months out at another place, and no problem got a crap ton tell us when to deliver at another place. Things are weird like that.

Hearing from my crew that some city/suburb construction has come to a halt. Some of it is labor shortage related and some of it is people can’t afford the new interest rates on their build loans. Whereas my crew is turning down work on a daily basis or adding to an ever growing wait list. Fortunately, my build is getting priority because it was started before the crunch really hit, it’s a huge and long project (crews don’t necessarily like moving around), and they’re getting to do things without the usual stresses of time and money.

 

[Nocturnal]

Being TSLA investors and EV owners has shielded most of TMC from much of the current bad economic forces, but ultimately there is a recession because wages are declining at a 4-5% pace, the most since Carter. This is why economic sentiment is so low.

Very valid points but don't forget that wages not increasing suggests that we aren't seeing an inflationary spiral.

Please specify in which business segments these wages are declining. I’m driving past employee wanted signs with wages listed and they are not going down. I’m paying a mountain crew solid wages to build the compound. If lawyer wages are declining, that’s not really an issue, is it?

Wages aren't increasing as fast as inflation, so it's a relative decline overall, but I imagine those sorts of jobs are seeing some pretty solid rates vs office jobs where the demand for labor hasn't changed much.

 

[Pezpunk]

AI day ... are we gonna see anything like this ... guess not.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1552305083475341313

Meh pretty sure whoever they had in that goofy-ass robot suit at the first AI day could handle that.

 

[AndrewZ]

Possible data point (or not - things change seemingly on whim) - My model Y configuration - long range, 19" wheels, 5 seat, silver metallic color, tow hitch, no FSD delivery date has jumped overnight - from Jan-Apr 2023 when I ordered (date still shows in app) to Apr-Jul 2023 when that configuration is set up on the order page.

Demand is up on the news? You decide.
But this IS why I jumped in line, I am expecting further moderate price hikes from Tesla in August. Rightly so, they should take the money for as long as they can and put it into expansion.

(I will be adding FSD, but will pay for it outright, it's a fair chunk of change that might as well grab some CC miles. They may raise FSD price before delivery, I'll deal with it if/when).

Switch the wheels to 20" and it's back to Jan-Apr

Pay a few thousand more for a MYP with 21" wheels and the website is saying I could get one as early as next month


People are not waiting long for Performance models in the delivery threads. I don't know what's so different from LR to P aside from the price and the wheels, so I'm kinda thinking the wheels are the cause

 

[JupiterMan]

AI day ... are we gonna see anything like this ... guess not.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1552305083475341313

as good as that is, what Tesla needs to show is dexterity.

dancing and jumping are very nice and certainly impressive, but the tricky bit as I see it is the actual jobs it can do and how it reacts to things at a much more intricate level.

 

[henchman24]

Switch the wheels to 20" and it's back to Jan-Apr

Pay a few thousand more for a MYP with 21" wheels and the website is saying I could get one as early as next month


People are not waiting long for Performance models in the delivery threads. I don't know what's so different from LR to P aside from the price and the wheels, so I'm kinda thinking the wheels are the cause

The difference is likely the margin Tesla has.

 

[BornToFly]

AI day ... are we gonna see anything like this ... guess not.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1552305083475341313

Is that true AI, or a machine just programmed to run a specific course in a predetermined way...?

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Please specify in which business segments these wages are declining. I’m driving past employee wanted signs with wages listed and they are not going down. I’m paying a mountain crew solid wages to build the compound. If lawyer wages are declining, that’s not really an issue, is it?

Additionally, lumber prices have come down a lot and supply is a non-issue. Steal prices have not come down much, supply mostly non-issue. Needed some big semi-custom doors that were said to be 2 months out at one place, 10 months out at another place, and no problem got a crap ton tell us when to deliver at another place. Things are weird like that.

Hearing from my crew that some city/suburb construction has come to a halt. Some of it is labor shortage related and some of it is people can’t afford the new interest rates on their build loans. Whereas my crew is turning down work on a daily basis or adding to an ever growing wait list. Fortunately, my build is getting priority because it was started before the crunch really hit, it’s a huge and long project (crews don’t necessarily like moving around), and they’re getting to do things without the usual stresses of time and money.

TBH....

There is a very scarce pool of 'skilled mountain builders' so your crew does not apply to your 'crew' turning work down on a daily basis.

 

[AndrewZ]

The difference is likely the margin Tesla has.

Maybe, I don't know if there would also be more orders for the smaller wheels because of the improved ride quality or what

But just playing with the wheel options (and paying more for the bigger wheels, likely more profit) can change your delivery dates by months

 

[Nocturnal]

Is that true AI, or a machine just programmed to run a specific course in a predetermined way...?

It's the latter.

 

[wtlloyd]

Switch the wheels to 20" and it's back to Jan-Apr

Pay a few thousand more for a MYP with 21" wheels and the website is saying I could get one as early as next month


People are not waiting long for Performance models in the delivery threads. I don't know what's so different from LR to P aside from the price and the wheels, so I'm kinda thinking the wheels are the cause

Really not looking to take delivery before next year due to potential incentives and the need to build a garage first
In addition, I'll be taking a couple months off work starting in Aug, so cash flow reasons are better served after the turn of the year.
In fact, I'm worried cancellations for incentive jockeying will bump up my order too soon!

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Gonna need a lot more volume to counter MM’s attempt to continually walk TSLA back down to 805.

Seems to be the EV credit news was a genuine surprise to everyone, even wall st. I hadn’t seen anything about even talks going on between Schumer and manchin

 

[Singuy]

Flight to bonds due to 2x GPD retraction. Vix is not convinced that this is a crash.

 

[dhanson865]

Is that true AI, or a machine just programmed to run a specific course in a predetermined way...?

It's the latter.

It's a mix

DO BOSTON DYNAMICS' ROBOTS USE ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE?

"Out-of-the-box, Spot has an inherent sense of balance and perception that enables it to walk steadily on a wide variety of terrains. This form of AI that we call “athletic intelligence” allows Spot to walk, climb stairs, avoid obstacles, traverse difficult terrain, and autonomously follow preset routes with little or no input from users."

So they preprogramed a course and let the AI do the balance/perception needed to follow the course.

There are plenty of outtakes of it failing the course. Similar to

https://twitter.com/x/status/1427671567375405069

But you do have to pre program courses, they don't have the ability to decide where to go (if there are 3 viable paths on a course they can't choose), only how to follow a path that someone chose before they started.

 

[ZachF]

Please specify in which business segments these wages are declining. I’m driving past employee wanted signs with wages listed and they are not going down. I’m paying a mountain crew solid wages to build the compound. If lawyer wages are declining, that’s not really an issue, is it?

5% increase in wages + 9% inflation = 4% drop in purchasing power.

Drop in purchasing power = dropping real wages

 

[TheTalkingMule]

5% increase in wages + 9% inflation = 4% drop in purchasing power.

Drop in purchasing power = dropping real wages

Where you getting 5%, far trailing statistics? In the real world I'm seeing people making 30% higher salaries and hourly help wanted signs far better than +10%. Stagflation isn't an impossibility, but by definition it's not here today.

I feel like we've beaten this to death already?

From looking at my corporate LinkedIn network, demand for educated employees remains extremely strong. From using my eyes in North Philly, hourly demand is sky high.

 

[damonbrodie]

Is that true AI, or a machine just programmed to run a specific course in a predetermined way...?

"True AI". That's a very tricky concept

No - that robot was not programmed to run that specific course. They give it a course to follow and the robot uses both vision and sensors to navigate its way along the course.

I doubt AI day will be about pathing - that's a problem that is reasonably solved by the likes of Boston Dynamics and others. My guess is it will be about training a bot to perform a task. That would be mind blowing.

Walking and picking up objects is prior art.

 

[ZachF]

Very valid points but don't forget that wages not increasing suggests that we aren't seeing an inflationary spiral.

Wages aren't increasing as fast as inflation, so it's a relative decline overall, but I imagine those sorts of jobs are seeing some pretty solid rates vs office jobs where the demand for labor hasn't changed much.

It all comes back to productivity.

Wages aren’t/can’t keep up with inflation because the amount of real production a worker creates with an hour of time (ie productivity) is decreasing.

 

[lafrisbee]

That's a horribly misleading video made by someone that either doesn't understand technology or is willing to intentionally mislead.

Starlink is cool but man the technical BS in that video is gobsmacking.

I am glad you liked it!
(it isn't supposed to be technical. It is supposed to be "cool." You know...war time. Fighting the evil idiot...giving Elon a tip of the cap for being The Man. Beauty is often created by intentionally misleading. Take a big hit and watch it later. And if that offends thee...well do some silly old scottish distilled sewer water by a crackling fire with the estate's Wolfhound at your feet.)
You are really gonna like my endeavor..... Coming soon to an "I Heart" radio station near you.

 

[Prunesquallor]

Please specify in which business segments these wages are declining. I’m driving past employee wanted signs with wages listed and they are not going down. I’m paying a mountain crew solid wages to build the compound. If lawyer wages are declining, that’s not really an issue, is it?

Additionally, lumber prices have come down a lot and supply is a non-issue. Steal prices have not come down much, supply mostly non-issue. Needed some big semi-custom doors that were said to be 2 months out at one place, 10 months out at another place, and no problem got a crap ton tell us when to deliver at another place. Things are weird like that.

Hearing from my crew that some city/suburb construction has come to a halt. Some of it is labor shortage related and some of it is people can’t afford the new interest rates on their build loans. Whereas my crew is turning down work on a daily basis or adding to an ever growing wait list. Fortunately, my build is getting priority because it was started before the crunch really hit, it’s a huge and long project (crews don’t necessarily like moving around), and they’re getting to do things without the usual stresses of time and money.

For your reference