Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[mars_or_bust]

This is nonsense.

Ashok was not suggesting the car would avoid 100% of accidents. He was suggesting that the car can avoid all accidents which can be avoided.

You can absolutely avoid all crashes where human error (on the part of the driver) or machine error is at fault.

Obviously you cannot avoid crashes where the car (FSD) or the driver are not at fault.

But the new FSD can avoid a crash where a UFO is at fault

 

[bkp_duke]

$15k . . . I have mixed feelings about this. As an investor, I think we really need to see some "validation" for L3/4 to shut up the FUDsters, and then we'll see analysts start including FSD in their financial models (moonshot!).

As an owner . . . that's one damn expensive option. I'm concerned it may push down the take rate.



In positive news, I just made my contribution for Q3. 2020 CPO Model Y Performance (with FSD) purchased. Pickup in about a week.

 

[Dreadnought]

The more simple answer I think, is that they want to drive as much people to the subscription model as possible. With the new price hike, the monthly subscription price starts to look a lot more attractive

Exactly. Every license sold today for $10k or $15k in two weeks from now is a license that can no longer be sold for $40k, $80k or whatever the price point is that will maximize take_rate x revenue_per_license for the finished product.

I have yet to finish watching Chuck's first daylight video of 10.69 but what I've seen so far makes me more confident than ever that L4+ autonomy is less than 3 years away (from a capability perspective; your jurisdiction might lag a bit). I rather expect it to become possible in 2023. That makes a $15k license on a new car a steal IMO.

 

[SOULPEDL]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1561361064163516417

Plus our vehicles just went up in value again with more on order, and price locked in. Sweet!

Get ready for some serious TSLA price volatility. The public's gonna be really confused for weeks and months out. Fortunately, I think the FSD user network is large enough by now that a lot of friends and family are gonna be seriously impressed. Isn't Thanksgiving coming again soon? (Oh, but don't forget Halloween comes first.)

From what I've seen on the 10.69 drives so far, this version is acting even more human. On WholeMars, we could see it was faked by that green light in the other direction, but then realized it's own mistake! At the same time, a car was approaching from the rear, so feeling some pressure to move, but likely just a coincidence. Same video, right turn with parked cars, it got close and I heard an alarm (proximity?). Was it telling itself it was too close? Did it learn just then?

Been thinking, no wonder Karpathy left Tesla - the path was set. Monday could be fun

 

[navguy12]

After the last split my share count increased but TDAmeritrade was briefly still using the pre split price

After the last split, my share count did NOT increase (for seven days) but CIBC immediately used the post split price.

 

[AudubonB]

I suspect nearly all of us have non-Tesla investments that have worked out poorly. I have had a few. The worst I have had were ones on which I took ‘professional’ advice, every one of those lost money. Next was thinking that my PhD studies in financial markets, including a Nobel Prize winner-led seminar, meant I understood options. I lost a little more than 100% on that one.

Humility I deserve. TSLA and a couple of other winners were mostly dumb luck, even though I insist superior analysis was really responsible.
Whenever hubris threatens me I return my thought to the events of the prior paragraph.

We all deserve a little humility. None of us are really .omniscient.

Indeed. However, either there is a lot of abject age-lying occurring in this thread, or the vast majority of its participants are, compared to certain graybeards, both far younger AND have orders of magnitude less experience in the investment world. Thus: far fewer of the catastrophic mistakes, and less perception of the yawning gap between luck and skill.

 

[SOULPEDL]

... In positive news, I just made my contribution for Q3. 2020 CPO Model Y Performance (with FSD) purchased. Pickup in about a week.

We're still playing the scorekeeper game on ours. I don't even know how it corners or brakes yet, only acceleration used so far.
Holding a 99 score, please end this soon.

 

[dgodfrey]

Except in the very sentence above the one we re talking about, he says wide release without any mention of fad beta . I think you’re reading way too much into your way of reading it and ignoring context, especially when you factor in Elon’s comments on the earning call about when a price hike would happen.

Anyways, we can just move on about Elon’s intent in that tweet

 

[jerry33]

At what point though will FSD perform well enough to negate the FUD?

This will happen when every new car is equipped with FSD. Until then there will always be FUD.

 

[Curt Renz]

Tesla Owners Silicon Valley with Sandy Munro- yesterday:

 

[Krugerrand]

Although I like the idea of Tesla making more money (obviously) it does feel that Elon's focus on raising FSD pricing is a bit optimistic. As I understand it, the FSD take-up rate is still pretty low, shouldn't they wait until FSD is selling like hot cakes before raising the price AGAIN?
I say this as someone who has reserved a performance model Y with FSD (still waiting...will be almost a year soon...).

I do see comments outside this forum from Tesla owners who say they think FSD is seriously overpriced. Given its a feature you can buy...but not even use yet unless you are judged worthy by Tesla to get into the beta... This seems like the company is getting ahead of itself.

I'd rather Tesla sold FSD to almost everyone at $10k/car than to 10% of the buyers at $15k.

Until you can legally read a book and let it do its thing...its just *really good driver assistance*, and thats assuming you are allowed into the beta.

I disagreed with this POV. I believe it’s akin to Tesla is overpriced at $35/sh, the Model S is vaporware, they’re going to go bankrupt etc…. FSD is overpriced for what it is - driver assist only - it’s vaporware, it’ll take 83 decades until it’s fully functional etc…

Here’s what’s going happen; one day, when it’s least expected, boom! FSD is going to cross that threshold and suddenly be what it’s always intended to be and most of the planet is going to miss out like they missed out getting TSLA at $17/sh at IPO, or have given up at $25/sh and cashed out, or all the other excuses used for not believing and holding (needing cash being the exception) - and be in a state of shock and awe and disbelief.

I understand this disbelief, angst, and the million other thoughts and emotions people have about what’s happening now and going to happen, but it’s all wrong in the same way it was wrong to think the SP has ever reflected the true value of Tesla but for 15 seconds since IPO.

Be prepared to be amazed and don’t say you weren’t warned.

 

[Knightshade]

This is nonsense.

Except it's what he is reporting having actually said- not the reinterpretation you made up.


So I agree there's nonsense here- but it ain't mine.

Elluswamy wraps the presentation by explaining that if they can successfully implement all the techniques discussed, they could produce a car that does not need to crash, ever.

Not "never due to human error on the ego cars part"

Just never.


We can certainly chalk it up to enthusiasm, but as I pointed out even Elon agrees that's simply not a possible outcome. Nor would it need to be to be massively safer than what we have today with mostly humans doing dumb stuff.

$15k . . . I have mixed feelings about this. As an investor, I think we really need to see some "validation" for L3/4 to shut up the FUDsters, and then we'll see analysts start including FSD in their financial models (moonshot!).

As an owner . . . that's one damn expensive option. I'm concerned it may push down the take rate.

Take rate was already quite low (esp. anywhere outside the US- but even IN the US, hence the reintroduction of EAP here).

Tesla long term seems more interested in subscription/recurring revenue anyway-- over the expected life of the vehicle (not just first owner) it'd bring in more $ than 1 time purchase too.

 

[capster]

I've been thinking about Ashok's presentation a bit more. It really seems that they have ~solved crashes, at least causing crashes. Both in FSD and in humanpilot. It took a combination of a very good perception stack, an occupancy grid with flow, a neural network to evaluate possible poses, a search function and the rest of the software 1.0 stack, electric motors etc. The end result might be a reduction in the number of self caused accidents by a magnitude.

So let's assume this is true. What happens if there is an ADAS feature that reduces the number of accidents by 90%? Will not all other car makers be required to also have this feature? But they cannot do it... Will they be forced to buy it from Tesla? Let's say Tesla can sell HW3, cameras etc for $10k. If not, will Tesla's not become super popular? How much extra would you pay for a car that has 90% lower chance to kill you?

This is not even taking into account FSD and the massive leap that 10.69 seems to be.

Imagine how much of the premiums paid Tesla Insurance will keep for us. Wowza!

 

[Ogre]

Except it's what he is reporting having actually said- not the reinterpretation you made up.

Not "never due to human error on the ego cars part"

Just never.

You are doubling down on a stupid stance here which adds nothing to the conversation about FSD and is clearly not what Ashok was getting at.

Yes of course Ashok meant "Our car dodges falling trees, surprise sinkholes, cannot be t-boned, and accelerates when asteroids are spotted!" /s

Let this stupid pedantry rest.

 

[ZachF]

FSD isn’t complete until I can climb into the car after a massive day of riding, punch “Home” and promptly pass out from exhaustion.

I’ll take it a little further:

FSD is not complete until I can spend a night a the bar, have the car drive me home, and at no time be in danger of getting a DUI.

$15k is just plain too much. Probably above the point of revenue maximization. They’d probably increase uptake by a larger percentage than a price drop if they did drop prices… His pricing strategy seems to be along the lines of Apple pricing a 2E computer by slightly less than what it would cost a room of dudes with slide rules to do the same task. The whole reason disruptive technologies disrupt is because they can do a task for a fraction of the price.

 

[Ogre]

FSD is not complete until I can spend a night a the bar, have the car drive me home, and at no time be in danger of getting a DUI.

I was going to suggest exactly this, but there is a bit of weirdness around this.

The big problem with either of our interpretations is there are some big legal and liability issues involved which is a secondary burden.

 

[Curt Renz]

IMO Tesla is going to keep increasing the price to convert more people to subscriptions. Really, if you don't keep the car for 5-6-7+ years, the subscription is already the way to go.

If long-term FSD is fully purchased upfront, how is that accounted when the car is resold or traded-in?

Does the FSD go to the new owner? Can the original owner apply his old FSD purchase to his newer Tesla? Or does the original contract become voided with no compensation?

 

[ZachF]

$15k . . . I have mixed feelings about this. As an investor, I think we really need to see some "validation" for L3/4 to shut up the FUDsters, and then we'll see analysts start including FSD in their financial models (moonshot!).

As an owner . . . that's one damn expensive option. I'm concerned it may push down the take rate.



In positive news, I just made my contribution for Q3. 2020 CPO Model Y Performance (with FSD) purchased. Pickup in about a week.

I think the development team is getting a little colored by Silicon Valley wages. Outside of SV $15k is a huge chunk of change… outside of the US at these exchange rates it’s honestly a small fortune. $15k is equal to an entire half year of median compensation in Korea or Italy!

 

[thesmokingman]

I’ll take it a little further:

FSD is not complete until I can spend a night a the bar, have the car drive me home, and at no time be in danger of getting a DUI.

Yea that would be ideal and it'd mean one would have to sit in the passenger seat and well... doesn't that imply a different classification?

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Keeping FSD expensive up front, but reasonable to subscribe points to only one conclusion. Internally it's considered too valuable for heavy adoption at these $10-15k price points.

Keep subscription reasonable to maintain the data stream, and push the real margin dump off til it becomes reality and a real value can be put on it.

Quite bullish.