Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[ZachF]

I think it's all about the resources...

Dealing with Québécois bureaucracy is probably going to add far more costs than resource proximity will subtract unfortunately.

There is a reason that in spite of having a well educated population and some of the lowest energy prices in NA that Quebec has much lower GDP per head than even Mississippi.

 

[Andy O]

Ontario's is actively sabotaging it

Quite the opposite.

The article points out that the Ontario government are not strong supporters of environmental issues, but that doesn't preclude that government from being a strong supporter of a new industrial operation. In fact, being only weakly pro-environment should result in fewer delays in the development of a new car factory, should it not?

My speculation is that a battery factory in Quebec, using local minerals, and a car factory in Ontario, are both potential developments.

 

[dhanson865]

I think it's all about the resources...

Piedmont Lithium Selects Tennessee for New Lithium Hydroxide Project - Piedmont Lithium

‘Tennessee Lithium’ expected to be the largest lithium hydroxide plant in the United States The Tennessee Lithium project will be located in Etowah, McMinn County, Tennessee Planned production of 30,000 metric tons per year of lithium hydroxide Lithium concentrate to be sourced principally from...

piedmontlithium.com

 

[Knightshade]

What resources? What Quebec has you won't get in Mexico or another NAFTA location?

Strategic Poutine Reserve.

Piedmont Lithium Selects Tennessee for New Lithium Hydroxide Project - Piedmont Lithium

‘Tennessee Lithium’ expected to be the largest lithium hydroxide plant in the United States The Tennessee Lithium project will be located in Etowah, McMinn County, Tennessee Planned production of 30,000 metric tons per year of lithium hydroxide Lithium concentrate to be sourced principally from...

piedmontlithium.com

Will it be less incompetently managed than their now years-delayed NC project?

 

[insaneoctane]

I guess I should chime in on this topic since I have first hand knowledge, having rented one for a month after my 2018 got totaled in June.

The $334 does include insurance and maintenance, but it's about $30/week extra to cover the windshield and tires and another $60 for a LR if I remember correctly. It adds up (doesn't it always!)

Overall, no, unless you got an absolute lemon new it makes far more sense to buy one yourself. I thought about renting one until my '22 M3P came but when the delivery got pushed back into September I gave up my $250 deposit (you're all welcome! ) and went with a '19 M3P from Tesla with FSD already installed.

One thing I took away from the experience was I was pretty impressed with the SR Model 3. I could make it work with supercharging even though driving 1000 miles a week. The different battery chemistry and being able to be more casual about your charging regimen I think is a big plus for the average EV owner. Feels like any other Tesla unless you floor it- it's not slow I'm just spoiled! It's definitely the best value in Tesla's fleet, and anybody who can do math will quickly realize the benefit over all but the least expensive ICE cars if you drive a lot.

I don't think buying makes obvious sense when you're driving 75k per year. The depreciation is yuuge in this case. Insurance, Tires, filters add up at this mileage rate and out of warranty repairs are real liability. The analysis should be straight forward, but certainly the Hertz approach limits risk and is attractive.

 

[scaesare]

Interesting thread… the fun part is when you scroll down to Tesla.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1584868019658190848

And I thought this Tweet was the fun part:

 

[scaesare]

You can not pull an 82,000 pound semi 500 miles with a 650 kWh battery. That is not an opinion. It is just physics.

This Engineering Explained Video has some good data and estimates on Semi energy needs (also makes some assumptions that may not be right, but the factors still hold):

 

[Krugerrand]

Did Germany turn out to have more obstacles than Elon expected? Did they cause delays for Tesla Elon didn't count on? The naming/language issue is just one small aspect of what could be similar ridiculous requirements.

So what? An obstacle or challenge doesn’t mean something shouldn’t be done. The choice of Germany is already paying off in product quality. GF Berlin is going to pay off in ways you clearly can’t see. And in this case it’s a freaking business name. Le Tesla. How hard is that? Have a little perspective.

 

[Krugerrand]

Given that Montreal used to be the financial capital of Canada, and now it's third rate at best after the insurance companies all left doesn't give me a very positive outlook.

Let’s just have a little patience and wait and see.

 

[betstarship]

Is the downward curve going to be jagged rather than a clean down?

World 'nowhere near' hitting climate targets, U.N. warns

Latest estimates say temperatures will rise to 4.5 degrees Fahrenheit above pre-industrial averages by the end of the century, the U.N. climate office said in a new report.

www.nbcnews.com

Heres the actual report: https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/cma2022_04.pdf

 

[scaesare]

Your "this Tweet" link leads to the Tesla YouTube channel.

Whoops just noticed and fixed... thanks

 

[Krugerrand]

GMC Hummer Recalled For Poorly Sealed Battery Packs

Water can get into the battery pack of the new Hummer and cause the vehicle to shut down.

www.roadandtrack.com

GM blames its supplier, "Magna International".

You would think GM would be a great 'assembler' with over 100 years of experience assembling all of the supplier components, but then this...

Has Tesla ever publicly blamed a supplier?

 

[traxila]

Has Tesla ever publicly blamed a supplier?

IIRC, they laid into and sued the original would be suppliers of the Model X Falcon Wing doors. They also jettisoned their seat supplier.

 

[Rarity]

It is indeed snowing a lot here, but since it is normal you won't get any disruptions. Everything is set up for it and only the occasional major snowstorm will cause temporary issues.

The language thing can be a nuisance for small businesses, but large corporations can handle it, Tesla already has a foothold as a corporation in Quebec servicing its cars that are selling like crazy here, like so many other places.

I personally would be very surprised to see a Gigafactory in Quebec, as car manufacturing is more an Ontario thing with several major car factories operating there along with its associated industrial ecosystem, versus none at all in Quebec. However, politically the Quebec's Provincial government is 100% behind Tesla's mission while Ontario's is actively sabotaging it so anything is possible.

Helpful, but not having an established car manufacturing base can be a feature rather than a bug. Neither Austin nor Berlin had a car manufacturing base and that hasn't seemed to impact Tesla negatively in operating there.

 

[Krugerrand]

At what point do we flip Gamma positive and have a small Gamma Squeeze?
Yesterday at the $220+ close we flipped for this week.

Looking at open interest and volume for this week and next - if we breach $240 then we have runway to $260 with Gamma and short covering from open positions.


If we see some form 4's tonight from Monday (Elon selling) that may give shorts a break or may increase the run since Twitter overhang is gone very quickly and they may try to pile out the door.

Any additional data I'm missing?

I need to recalibrate by definitions when you say a $20 rise (less than 10%) is considered a ‘runaway’ of the SP.

 

[thesmokingman]

Has Tesla ever publicly blamed a supplier?

Not for their own shortcomings. The way GM and legacy handle things is blame your suppliers, especially with batteries. Look at Hyundai, blame blame blame... and when that wasn't enough blame the raw material itself lmao.

 

[Discoducky]

1 down, more to go:

156 years after it was founded: German car company files for bankruptcy

The North Rhine-Westphalian automotive supplier Borgers SE & Co. KGaA has filed for bankruptcy.

They are or were a supplier of automotive parts...I'm guessing they have not had enough orders to stay solvent.

Could be a start of a chain reaction domino effect.

"The long-established company manufactures damping, paneling and insulation for cars."

 

[Ogre]

IIRC, they laid into and sued the original would be suppliers of the Model X Falcon Wing doors. They also jettisoned their seat supplier.

I think getting rid of a supplier is the expected thing to do when they fail. But wouldn't that be a seat supplier ejection?

Personal ejection seat trivia. My father named my oldest brother "Martin Baker" it was years before my mother realized why and she did not think it was funny.

 

[rallykeeper]

In Q3, Tesla Generated Net Interest Income for the first time.

Q3'22 had Interest Income ($86m) > Interest Expense ($53m) netting +$33m.
The benefits of strong Free Cash Flow

View attachment 867754

Good catch.

Given the change in interest rates (plus the increase in Tesla's cash), you should probably expect ~1.5X - 2X that much interest income in Q4. Depending on potential rising interest expense, it could start to get material.

(math: we don't know exactly what Tesla's cash yielded, but we can extrapolate from change in Fed Funds rate. Average Fed Funds was ~2% in Q3; will be ~3.75% in Q4 depending on Fed path. Tesla wasn't likely earning Fed Funds rate, but it's the multiple that matters.)

 

[Prunesquallor]

it was a _very_ quick and dirty and just used the bubble charts of ones that had numbers.
also, between that post and the 6-10 pages, there is some contention about the validity of the numbers, like Tesla should be 6 terawatt not 3 terawatt, and some "fluidity" in things.
i just liked the pie chart since it was confirmation that Tesla, _even_ with 7 more years competition is _forecast_ to be over 50% at a minima, i expect they will "redshift" further past the competition, like "Sleeper Service", tho perhaps not at 233,500 x C.
(an allusion to "Excession" by Iain M Banks)

I was worried about you! I hadn't seen a sci-fi reference in quite a while.