Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[AudubonB]

It’s a blessed thing my opinion of Mr Musk’s command of English and ability to use apposite quasi-literary terms now is quite low….

…..otherwise I should be rather petrified at his “coup de grâce” reference. Let us all pray he does not know what that truly can mean.

 

[Paracelsus]

Maybe he meant it ultra bullish

View attachment 888265

I wish you were right. I am fairly certain that this is a reference to all Twitter files related to Covid that are about to be released - much of which Elon has been wanting to share since California pressured him to close the Fremont plant and his fight to keep it open to keep the company alive became too one-sided in the media for his liking. Hence his insistence on staying the course in charge of Twitter to ensure he can facilitate this IMO - which I feel even more comfortable in believing after last night’s round table on Twitter

 

[mongo]

Am I the only person that didn't expect the wave to end one quarter after announcement?

Did you mean "the end of the wave" to end? i.e. return to the wave?

Wave is not just in-store inventory, it's in transit inventory. Ideally, cars sit at delivery locations for the shortest time possible.
In the wave, they plan for all forms of transport to be empty at end of quarter resulting in lumpy deliveries.
Having transport (ships especially*) run when able means there will be cars on them, but more units moved to buyer overall.

*Given a one month each way trip timing from China to Europe there is only one delivery possible a quarter. Unless they really push it. In which case they definitely can't do two loads the next quarter.
Wave: 1 ship per quarter or *maybe* 2,1,repeat

Unwave: 2 sometimes, 1 delivered 1 in transit, repeat average 1.5 ships per quarter

 

[JRP3]

In the "I never expected that" category, a dividend investor making an argument for buying TSLA now. Rather long and I only skimmed but here's a sample:

Tesla has revolutionized the automotive sector and built a brand that no other large automaker can match. Does it have risks? Of course, just look at the antics of mad king Musk.

But at a 56% historical discount, Tesla is now a potential speculative table-pounding buy that offers 12X better return potential than the S&P 500 (SP500).

And even if you're a dividend investor, that kind of Buffett-like return potential could turbocharger your long-term income growth and make Tesla a potentially wonderful buy today.

Why Dividend Investors Should Buy Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA)

Tesla is now a potential speculative table-pounding buy that offers 12X better return potential than the S&P 500. Read why dividend investors should buy TSLA.

seekingalpha.com

Bottom indicator?

 

[Ogre]

Cashed out my 401kouch (who knew a crappy mutual fund from my work would be the least equity destroying investment over the past year) and rolling that into my IRA. It wasn’t a huge amount since I only worked that job for 18 months, but it’s the biggest couch I haven’t already emptied by a big margin.

Also just set myself up for an ungodly tax bill by rolling a big chunk of my TSLA and TSLA LEAPs from my IRA into a Roth. Not even quite sure how I’m going to pay for it. But that is the last time I’ll pay taxes on that chunk of change and assuming this ship turns eventually it will be a lot less tax than I would eventually pay. (Lemons -> slightly less bitter Lemons -> hopefully lemonaid in a couple years)

Might have to sell my Tesla to pay the tax bill. Wife would **not** be happy about that.

Less sanguine about this whole thing than I was when I cooked up the idea 3 months ago but at least I’m screwing up my own destiny instead of watching some mutual fund underperform for me. Plus paying a lot less taxes than I would have back then.

 

[insaneoctane]

Pretty much expecting a bounce next week and then a drop after. But man if those China Dec numbers are true…

Given how cheap TSLA is on so many metrics today, Q4 P/D and earnings could be the ultimate showdown between Tesla’s execution and Wall St hedge funds. Given those strike dates of the Puts, hedge funds seem very confident they’ll be able to drop the stock. If Tesla does something like 475k deliveries and then EPS of $1.5-1.8…we’ll see who wins

Yes, but what "poor performance" has Tesla demonstrated to justify the drop to $12X? Tesla's execution seems completely disconnected from SP, so why does a great quarter reconnect them? Feels like even if Q4 is a great quarter, afterwards the stock likely gets walked down again, just like this week? Not trying to be overly negative, rather understand if it's possible to take control away from the shortz in this macro environment? At this point it feels they are beyond sensible and are purposely punishing TSLA out of spite like a schoolyard bully...

 

[ElectricIAC]

At this point it feels they are beyond sensible and are purposely punishing TSLA out of spite like a schoolyard bully...

Bingo. The Apple cart has been upset and it’s clear that regulators are turning a blind eye to manipulators being fed by MSM FUDsters.

 

[phantasms]

I came to the realization this morning that TSLA probably gets to ~$80. We're getting down to that magic $100 line. I've got to imagine the powers that be will try and trip that wire at $100 which will cause some short term mayhem as far as stop losses and margin. Also, I believe the macros still need to come down and wash out. Maybe we'll over perform from here but if they have a real bad day, we'll cross that $100 line. As I said in the past, I hope I'm wrong...finally this time.

 

[gene]

Still holding all my shares since 2012 plus plenty of shares purchased this year, now, of course, in the red. But as I mentioned before, you can go to Supercharge info and get a virtual Tesla feel better hug! More than 35 Supercharger stations in the last 3 days. Superchargers coming online has been at an increasing rate lately, I take that as a good sign: supercharge.info

 

[Mike Smith]

Ferrari trades at a PE of 39, suggesting it will grow more than Tesla..

 

[ZsoZso]

So yesterday after-hours had a spike up on Elon's promise not to sell any more shares during the next year or two.
However, it did not survive the main trading day and we dipped even lower than yesterday.
Seems like his statements regarding stock sales are treated by the market like the boy who cried wolf one too many times...

 

[Snerruc]

Hmmmm…… What the shorts are doing appears to me to be the reverse of a gamma squeeze. Is there a name for this? I don’t see how this stops short of them finally reaching a point where they can’t make enough money to make it worth their while. To this doofus, that point seems a lot lower when where we are now. This isn’t just a Tesla problem; it’s a market problem. We might be the canary in the coal mine.

 

[stealthyc]

Hmmmm…… What the shorts are doing appears to me to be the reverse of a gamma squeeze. Is there a name for this? I don’t see how this stops short of them finally reaching a point where they can’t make enough money to make it worth their while. To this doofus, that point seems a lot lower when where we are now. This isn’t just a Tesla problem; it’s a market problem. We might be the canary in the coal mine.

I think it's actually called a reverse gamma squeeze

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Yes, but what "poor performance" has Tesla demonstrated to justify the drop to $12X? Tesla's execution seems completely disconnected from SP, so why does a great quarter reconnect them? Feels like even if Q4 is a great quarter, afterwards the stock likely gets walked down again, just like this week? Not trying to be overly negative, rather understand if it's possible to take control away from the shortz in this macro environment? At this point it feels they are beyond sensible and are purposely punishing TSLA out of spite like a schoolyard bully...

I think a truly spectacular delivery number followed up a huge earnings beat would force the issue and cause a strong, but brief rally. Maybe up to like 160 and then the stock drifts back to the 130’s/140’s while the rest of the market bottoms.

It’s not about the incoming data causing some huge rally and it’s upwards and onwards, more like will cause a big relief rally good for a 20-30% move and then fade, but that it would set 120 as the bottom

 

[TSLA Siempre]

I remember him saying in an Earnings Call in response to a question (maybe this one, further on) " Like, we don't want to be very profitable, like maybe 1% or 2% profitable"

That was a long time ago. For the last couple years, we have been assuming and talking up about Tesla being profitable. In fact, Elon said in the most recent quarterly call about how much cash Tesla is going to generate. Hard to reconcile that statement with having little profits now and also doing a buyback. Seems incongruous.

 

[EVDRVN]

I came to the realization this morning that TSLA probably gets to ~$80. We're getting down to that magic $100 line. I've got to imagine the powers that be will try and trip that wire at $100 which will cause some short term mayhem as far as stop losses and margin. Also, I believe the macros still need to come down and wash out. Maybe we'll over perform from here but if they have a real bad day, we'll cross that $100 line. As I said in the past, I hope I'm wrong...finally this time.

That would make Gordo look good, a $5 beat on price for him.

 

[Stretch2727]

Am I the only person that didn't expect the wave to end one quarter after announcement?

Not the first time this story has reversed. In general we should see this smooth out as Berlin and Austin ramp with no deliberate actions from Tesla.

I do wonder if Elon decided to change direction just to shut the people up that seem to think just under 50% is a disaster. China Production/Sales is the the biggest wild card. None of it makes business sense unless the latest rumor that they will sell 100K in China is true. If they don't have the sales in China why would they not build and ship to EU for Q1 delivery. Everyone was prepared for a bunch of extra cars in transit this quarter.

 

[Mengy]

I think a truly spectacular delivery number followed up a huge earnings beat would force the issue and cause a strong, but brief rally. Maybe up to like 160 and then the stock drifts back to the 130’s/140’s while the rest of the market bottoms.

It’s not about the incoming data causing some huge rally and it’s upwards and onwards, more like will cause a big relief rally good for a 20-30% move and then fade, but that it would set 120 as the bottom

I'd love to see that, but I have a suspicion it will go more like this:

We get a huge Q4 beat on deliveries and Megapack sales resulting in earnings way above expected, BUT the stock drops down to $80 because Elon gives a hint of possible hard times in 2023 due to recession on the earnings call. Because hey, we are TSLA and that's just our lot in life.

 

[wipster]

While the current stock price and price action seems abysmal, just remember a few years ago prior to the 2 stock splits, when TSLA was trading around 300 and seemed stuck there, the current price would be ~1,845!

How things have changed eh?

 

[Snerruc]

I think it's actually called a reverse gamma squeeze

Thanks!