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Tesla produced 439k units in Q4 2022, and 'over 440k' units in Q1 2023. I don't think much scale-wise cost reduction applies here.
Because the cost reduction doesn't apply to earnings until the unit produced is actually recognized as revenue. Thus you won't see the cost reduction from increase production until the units produced at the higher production volume get sold. You're essentially seeing an up to one quarter delay.

There was a roughly 24k increase in 3/Y deliveries from Q4 to Q1. In reality, most of the increase in deliveries were from Berlin/Austin Model Y's. Considering Berlin/Austin made up for some of Shanghai downtime, the number increase from them was higher than 24k. As @mongo mentioned, the timing of the production increases is actually pretty key. Because if say for the greater part of Q4, Austin/Berlin were in the area of 1500-2000/week, every car that was made while at that production rate and then sold carried much lower gross margin number due to the fixed cost and variable costs of the factory, utilities, and labor associated.

A good example would be Berlin. We had data/news from Berlin that some lines and the # of employees need to run them have been ready for 4,000-5,000 production levels since the start of Q4 but a couple other key production lines were waiting on a second shift to start to do the ramp from 2k/week to 5k/week. Those cost of those lines and the labor associated with them that were ready for 5k/week production only did 2000/week throughout most of Q4, disproportionally hitting gross margins out of Berlin for Q4.

As Mongo pointed out, both Austin and Berlin reached 3k/week in mid December and then greatly accelerated. But pretty much all of the Y's that come off the line at the higher production levels didn't get sold until Q1 because they were in transport. Thus the Y's made at the lower gross margin were sold in Q4 and most of the production 3k/week and above at the higher gross margin were sold in Q1.

Gross margins could have easily improved dramatically just from the start of Q4 to the end of Q4. But you won't see the earnings benefits of it until Q1.
 
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A Megafactory selling 10,000 megapacks per year is equivalent to a Gigafactory selling 500k cars per year, so the two Megafactories will add 1M car equivalents per year, with expansions and many more factories to come. The analysts and media don't seem to appreciate this.
And slowly fees from autobidder will be more and more residual income from certain deals. That is before Tesla starts their own installations.
 
Depends where the car is located, the metal mass and if there is a cash for clunkers program at the time. According to Scrap Car Value Calculator , The average value for mid-size cars is between $150 to $300. If the rounding increment exceeds scrap value, let's say $1000, the value would then be defined as 0. With that definition, any obsolete tech goes to zero, be it a steam locomotive, a thick TV or an ICE car, that's obvious.

What I am unsure of is the time, since obsolescence is driven by a confluence of many forces, like swells in the ocean that suddenly roll together into a big wave when you don't expect it. Gas cars are already dead in e.g. Norway. That doesn't matter in America because the global used car market can soak up Norwegian oversupply without as much as a ripple on the surface. When continental forces get in motion it will look a bit different. Continental swells in confluence right now are:
  • Chinese dealers stuffed with millions of brand new unsold ICE cars. Price spiral approaching 0. Used cars might already be at 0 when people know they can get a new one for near 0. Neither did the auto OEMs see it coming in China, nor will they see it when it now happens in Europe and soon in the US.
  • In Europe, BEV share is hurdling toward 50% right now. Awfully close to a thick TV vs flatscreen moment.
  • One possible outcome is that tens of millions of unsold ICE cars in China and Europe get re-certified and shipped to the US to re-capture at least some of the value.
  • ICE manufacturers inside the US coming out of supply chain issues might ramp up ICE production at the exact same time. These three factors could bring new ICE prices near 0 this year and thereby used ICE cars to 0. It's also possible the Chinese government will bail out the ICE industry one last time and none of this chain reaction will take place, at least not this year. I can't imagine it taking longer than five though, so thought three years was a good middle ground for our ICE to hit 0.
These things are happening at the moment and will surely change unexpectedly. All scenarios lead to one thing though: ICE farting out its final puff of smoke.

After the first swell hits and ICE consumers have once tasted the sale of their own car for $0, possibly under bank reposession, they won't buy another one. If in doubt, ask any manufacturer of thick TVs what price they were fetching once LCD had taken hold.
The whole concept of ANY car going from $15k value to 0 in three years makes zero sense, at least on planet earth. LOTS of $15k used cars that will run great for another 10 years, EASY. And still probably worth $3k at that point.

Look at any $15k used car on auto trader or whatever. Now look up the same car three years older. They don't sell for $0. Or $1,000. Or $5,000. Most likely still at $10k or higher. By the time a used car drops to $15k value, majority of the depreciation has hit.
 
My go-to example of this is back in the mid to late-00's when gas prices spiked to $4/gallon. Ford Expeditions and similarly huge SUVs literally disappeared off the American highways almost overnight.

Remember, rapid change always seems impossible until it happens.
One of the things that helped make the TCO model I built when contemplating my 2013 S tenable was the fact that gas was $3.50/gal at that time... and I was driving a 4Runner 65 miles round trip for commute every day and our Sequoia several evenings and on the weekends... influences like gas prices definitely have an impact.
 
One of the things that helped make the TCO model I built when contemplating my 2013 S tenable was the fact that gas was $3.50/gal at that time... and I was driving a 4Runner 65 miles round trip for commute every day and our Sequoia several evenings and on the weekends... influences like gas prices definitely have an impact.
In addition to TCO, there is also the safety factor,

How much safer is a Model 3 compared to a $15K ICE?

What are the chances of encountering the worst driver on the road, and/or being unlucky?

When it is break-even or even a slight premium for a Tesla from a TCO point of view, buy the Tesla. Putting down $2,000-$3,000 for personal safety over 5-10 years seems worth it to me. If you are unlucky, you will be glad that you were in a Tesla.
 
Troy's method as far as I know for US ASP is based on limited DMV registration data which records trim level but does not record options purchased. The way Tesla does their official "trim" variants (LR, P, etc..) is significantly different because most options are outside of the trim level. Given the fact that Q1 had the tax credit, we don't know how consumers decided to use the credit (pocket all of the savings or use some of it for options).

Tesla lowered prices enough for there to be room for significant options to be added without the consumer going over the 80k limit for SUV. So to me Troy's method of determining US ASP is significantly flawed. Something as small as an adoption rate increase of 5-10% for Enhanced Autopilot or FSD purchases thanks to the extra savings from the tax credit could have big impacts to US ASP.

And I know, Troy sources from his spreadsheets for adoption rates of Enhanced Autopilot/FSD purchases but as Tesla sales increase, the % of people actually putting their information into his spreadsheets continues to decrease. It becomes less and less of reliable source of anecdotal evidence as sales grow.

Troy's automotive revenue predictions have been within a few % each quarter the past few years.
 
Troy's automotive revenue predictions have been within a few % each quarter the past few years.
His predictions from mid January were what again?

You can't seriously use the "predictions" he made on March 31st as your basis for grading him or suggesting his predictions 2 weeks into this quarter will be accurate.

The prediction he made... on March 31st was within a few %.

The prediction he made on or before January 15th were not. Nor were the predictions he made on February 15th.
 
His predictions from mid January were what again?

You can't seriously use the "predictions" he made on March 31st as your basis for grading him or suggesting his predictions 2 weeks into this quarter will be accurate.

The prediction he made... on March 31st was within a few %.

The prediction he made on or before January 15th were not. Nor were the predictions he made on February 15th.
This grossly underappreciates the complexity just in calculating revenues and the potential variables in play even if you know the quarter’s delivery numbers

How many deliveries were realized at which prices? Were vehicles delivered that were ordered at different prices? How about currency exchange rates? EAP/FSD sales and revenue realization?
 
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Looks good and dirty. New Model 3 Screenshot_20230412-222542.png
 
In addition to TCO, there is also the safety factor,

How much safer is a Model 3 compared to a $15K ICE?

What are the chances of encountering the worst driver on the road, and/or being unlucky?

When it is break-even or even a slight premium for a Tesla from a TCO point of view, buy the Tesla. Putting down $2,000-$3,000 for personal safety over 5-10 years seems worth it to me. If you are unlucky, you will be glad that you were in a Tesla.
Auto accidents are a leading cause of death in the US and not far off from being in the top 10. Might be depending on what data you find.


I'm sure someone could do some quick math with odds of death by accident in a Tesla vs the average used ICE. It would be significant.
 
Twitter boosts content with high engagement.

Musk is easily the biggest, most influential person on Twitter right now and reposts the most interesting posts from Tesla.

Tesla’s Twitter presence is free. Posting adverts there would be nearly pointless, there are already millions of people, owners and non owners, exposed to Teslas messaging on a constant basis.

The ironic thing is many of the haters end up increasing the reach even more.
less than 25% of US population is on twitter. The number is even smaller internationally (and 0% in China).
 
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