Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Drumheller]

You are saying better growth in certain years and not an avg of 12% yearly correct? Because if it was 12% avg minus expenses over a course of 10+ years, please share the mutual fund names

It wasn't over 10+ years and the other comment about doing well in a bull market is fair. I was new to investing and that was my first 401k. I balanced it about twice a year simply based on past performance of the available funds and splitting into target areas for diversification. I managed to do better than 12% for at least 3 years, as I recall. After I left that company, I ignored that 401k for a few years and then rolled it all into TSLA.

I considered leaving my current employment at the end of 2022 just so I could move this 401k into tsla while it was so very undervalued, but I decided it wasn't large enough to justify dealing with the other consequences of such a decision.

I've learned much more about investing and evaluating businesses over the past decade, much of it thanks to people here sharing their knowledge and wisdom.

 

[Cosmacelf]

Personally, I don't take analyst projections to 2030 very seriously. A lot can change between now and then, including products under development we have no clue about. In 2003, any Apple analysts projecting out to 2010 would have been incredibly wrong due to the iPhone coming out in 2007 that no one anticipated at the time.

Hell, no one knew Apple was coming out with the iPhone even in 2007 until the announcement!

I’m actually more optimistic about Teslabot as a 2030 bluebird than I am for FSD. Yes, FSD will work by then, but Teslabot will be worth more, IMHO. And then there’s energy storage that few people are modeling correctly.

 

[dhanson865]

He also has a highly ambitious stock price estimate of $720 in 2030? That's <12% stock price appreciation per year, I think he might be a bit pessimistic with that.

As a linear projection the Stephenson IndicatorTM approaches near zero growth eventually. By 2070 it's about 2% growth when Tesla is a $24 Trillion market cap.

~$449 a share in 2023 - ~1.5 Trillion (we need whatever growth to get back to even with the indicator)
~$591 a share in 2024 - ~2 Trillion (~31% growth)
~$733 a share in 2025 - ~2.5 Trillion (~24% growth)
~$875 a share in 2026 - ~3 Trillion (~19% growth)
~$1017 a share in 2027 - ~3.5 Trillion (~16% growth)
~$1159 a share in 2028 - ~4 Trillion (~14% growth)
~$1301 a share in 2029 - ~4.5 Trillion (~12% growth)
~$1442 a share in 2030 - ~5 Trillion (~11% growth)

~2150 a share in 2035 - ~7 Trillion (~7% single year growth)
~2860 a shere in 2040 - ~10 Trillion (~5% single year growth)



Looking at it another way we have

2.5 trillion Gary Black
1-4 Trillion Starfoxisdown
5 Trillion Stephensen IndicatorTM
10 Triilion Drumheller
18 Trillion Artful Dodger

any of those that are more optimistic than Gary Black works to let me retire so I'll not argue about who is right if I'm retired I'll just give kudos with a smile on my face.

 

[Robertj]

2013View attachment 954389

Agree , the chart looks good

But I think the future short term direction of TSLA share price will be determined by the Gross Profit margin in the earnings report

A dropping GP % will see the share price likely drop in the short term . An increasing GP % will likely see an increasing share price

Just my 2 cents worth and not investment advice

 

[insaneoctane]

You can't talk about growth in earnings per share w/o also including the share count growth. EPS growth was 6% CAGR for AAPL, but how much did their share count grow? Any Splits? TIA.

Yes, most of what I review automatically is adjusted for splits. The EPS story for AAPL is admittedly complex with two splits, 7:1 in 2014 and 4:1 in 2020, but to further complicate it, AAPL has been buying back shares to the tune of almost $600B(!) over the past decade resulting in fewer shares even with splits (I think). That makes the EPS analysis complicated enough that I'm not willing to redo the analysis on my iPad!

 

[FastEddieB]

Hell, no one knew Apple was coming out with the iPhone even in 2007 until the announcement!

To the best of my recollection, there were many rumors that Apple was working on a phone. But I’ll grant that the exact nature of the iPhone was not expected and I recall the tease by Jobs that they were introducing three devices - a "widescreen iPod with touch controls"; a "revolutionary mobile phone"; and a "breakthrough Internet communicator". The reveal was that they were all combined in ONE device!

And history was made.

 

[MP3Mike]

For those interested, Tesla didn't even bother putting their name in the running for a portion of the first year of Oregon portion of the NEVI funding for DC fast charger installations.

50 companies, including Rivian, did put their name in. It will likely be November before the winners of the three contracts get announced.

 

[Electroman]

The Malaysian Prime Minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim said yesterday:

Other company heads might get audience with the lower level honchos like the Economics minister, or Industries minister or Minister of Foreign investments etc.

Only Musk has the cachet to start the discussions directly with PMs and Presidents, and then someone else under Musk works with the ministers to finish the deal. And you can see the top man/woman in each country is eager to meet Musk.

Be it Macron or Meloni or Modi or Anwar or Xi or Merkel. Not sure if Musk met Mexican President

 

[madodel]

Hell, no one knew Apple was coming out with the iPhone even in 2007 until the announcement!

I’m actually more optimistic about Teslabot as a 2030 bluebird than I am for FSD. Yes, FSD will work by then, but Teslabot will be worth more, IMHO. And then there’s energy storage that few people are modeling correctly.

Not the iPhone but when my daughter cried after I gave her a Disney Princess MP3 player for her 9th birthday instead of an iPod in 2002 I knew I should hold onto my AAPL stock. I even explained how the Disney MP3 player was so much better as you didn't have to sign up for something to get songs, no need for a computer and you could just get SD cards with the songs you wanted and even put your own songs on it. She wasn't buying what I was selling. All her friends had iPods. If they could get little girls to forsake anything Disney Princess I knew that was going to be huge. I've HODL'd those shares since 2001. Haven't seen anything like that until TSLA in 2013. It's all about the ecosystem.

Maybe there will be FSD robotaxis and Teslabots in wealthy homes, but either way Tesla will grow as more people buy into the Tesla ecosystem.

 

[Words of HABIT]

Confession. My daughter got me hooked on Formula One (F1) racing. F1 started in 1950 and essentially is noisy open wheeled ICE cars traditional racing on a 4 - 5 mile track with hairpin turns and long straight aways achieving speeds of up to 225 mph (360 kmph). F1 is watched by >500 million people worldwide. Netflix has a documentary series called Drive to Survive, a behind-the-scenes look at the drivers and races of the F1 World Championship which put you into the minds of the drivers, owners and managers. The F1 World Championship runs March to December, 22 races in 22 different Countries. Two weekends ago, my home course Circuit Gilles Villeneuve, Montreal, Canada F1 race was attended by >338,000 fans. The race was won by Max Verstappen, Red Bull Racing, with a Honda engine. Max is currently leading ahead of S. Perez (Red Bull), F. Alonso (Assent Martin), Lewis Hamilton (Mercedes) and C. Sainz Jr. (Ferrari).

In comparison, the Formula E (FE) racing series with high speed electric vehicles started in 2015. These EVs are 30 mph (55 kmph) slower than their ICE counterparts. Attendance although growing is anemic and FE has some real oddities. During the race, spectators can vote for their favourite driver, and in real time, the driver is given battery power boosts of acceleration. On some of the track corners, drivers can chose to travel further to the outside of the corner and are rewarded by taking a less optimal racing line with an additional 50kW of power acceleration boost, kind of like an arcade video. I'm not kidding. Some of the major sponsors are oil and gas companies and they have turned Formula E into somewhat of a joke.

An EV can be designed to match or have greater top speed than current F1 ICE vehicles, also EVs have much quicker acceleration (instant torque) than current F1 ICE counterparts, with their manual shifting. Typical F1 circuits with multiple hairpin turns and corners along with straight-aways, and overall race length of 190 miles, favour EVs over ICE. Wouldn't it be awesome to have ICE and EV compete together under Formula One, no compromises. The World, >500 million are currently watching. This would be equal to what Tesla has done to the drag strip. This would be the death knell for ICE, the breaking of their final straw. People need to know there is an environmentally better alternative to ICE, and having EVs consistently win Formula One will help with the transition in changing the perception of what a battery electric vehicle is capable of.

Until then, the British Grand Prix at the famed Silverstone circuit is tomorrow (Sunday). Max Verstappen has the pole position.

 

[SPadival]

Until then, the British Grand Prix at the famed Silverstone circuit is tomorrow (Sunday). Max Verstappen has the pole position.

And, If you’re stuck somewhere while the better half is shopping, Kayo Sports to the rescue

 

[Big Time]

1 Day Chart

1 Hour Chart

 

[SmokyPeat]

Confession. My daughter got me hooked on Formula One (F1) racing. F1 started in 1950 and essentially is noisy open wheeled ICE cars traditional racing on a 4 - 5 mile track with hairpin turns and long straight aways achieving speeds of up to 225 mph (360 kmph). F1 is watched by >500 million people worldwide. Netflix has a documentary series called Drive to Survive, a behind-the-scenes look at the drivers and races of the F1 World Championship which put you into the minds of the drivers, owners and managers. The F1 World Championship runs March to December, 22 races in 22 different Countries. Two weekends ago, my home course Circuit Gilles Villeneuve, Montreal, Canada F1 race was attended by >338,000 fans. The race was won by Max Verstappen, Red Bull Racing, with a Honda engine. Max is currently leading ahead of S. Perez (Red Bull), F. Alonso (Assent Martin), Lewis Hamilton (Mercedes) and C. Sainz Jr. (Ferrari).

In comparison, the Formula E (FE) racing series with high speed electric vehicles started in 2015. These EVs are 30 mph (55 kmph) slower than their ICE counterparts. Attendance although growing is anemic and FE has some real oddities. During the race, spectators can vote for their favourite driver, and in real time, the driver is given battery power boosts of acceleration. On some of the track corners, drivers can chose to travel further to the outside of the corner and are rewarded by taking a less optimal racing line with an additional 50kW of power acceleration boost, kind of like an arcade video. I'm not kidding. Some of the major sponsors are oil and gas companies and they have turned Formula E into somewhat of a joke.

An EV can be designed to match or have greater top speed than current F1 ICE vehicles, also EVs have much quicker acceleration (instant torque) than current F1 ICE counterparts, with their manual shifting. Typical F1 circuits with multiple hairpin turns and corners along with straight-aways, and overall race length of 190 miles, favour EVs over ICE. Wouldn't it be awesome to have ICE and EV compete together under Formula One, no compromises. The World, >500 million are currently watching. This would be equal to what Tesla has done to the drag strip. This would be the death knell for ICE, the breaking of their final straw. People need to know there is an environmentally better alternative to ICE, and having EVs consistently win Formula One will help with the transition in changing the perception of what a battery electric vehicle is capable of.

Until then, the British Grand Prix at the famed Silverstone circuit is tomorrow (Sunday). Max Verstappen has the pole position.

Circuit of the Americas (COTA) in Austin TX is a fantastic venue for F1 and many other racing events. It also happens to be quite close to the Austin gigafactory. Maybe we'll see a next gen Roadster racing event there some day. The Ferrari 458 event I saw prior to the big F1 race was quite entertaining. Many of the Ferrari drivers were amateurs and there was an abundance of wrecks. The vintage F1 "race" event was also very cool.

 

[Bet TSLA]

Peter Abbeel's Robot Brains Podcast
He interviews Jesse Levinson of Zoox (now owned by Amazon)
Zoox is "reinventing personal transportation from the ground up". All about their path to achieving robotaxis, designing and manufacturing their own vehicle along with the autonomy software. Interesting stuff. About an hour.

» We are building a new kind of transportation

zoox.com

Not sure if there's any way to listen other than Apple podcasts. Here's a link.

The Robot Brains Podcast: Jesse Levinson of Zoox: reinventing personal transportation from the ground up on Apple Podcasts

Show The Robot Brains Podcast, Ep Jesse Levinson of Zoox: reinventing personal transportation from the ground up - Jul 5, 2023

podcasts.apple.com

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

In comparison, the Formula E (FE) racing series with high speed electric vehicles started in 2015. These EVs are 30 mph (55 kmph) slower than their ICE counterparts. Attendance although growing is anemic and FE has some real oddities. During the race, spectators can vote for their favourite driver, and in real time, the driver is given battery power boosts of acceleration. On some of the track corners, drivers can chose to travel further to the outside of the corner and are rewarded by taking a less optimal racing line with an additional 50kW of power acceleration boost, kind of like an arcade video. I'm not kidding. Some of the major sponsors are oil and gas companies and they have turned Formula E into somewhat of a joke.

They finally dropped Fanboost for this 2022-2023 season, which is a relief as it was so stupid.

The power boosted mode taken by driving through a designated area off the racing line is called Attack Mode, which gives a few minutes of boosted power. It's usually 2 per race and drivers have to take them and complete them before the race ends.

Attack Mode is really just a way to get more overtaking and add a little strategy. There are no tire changes in Formula E so everything has to happen on the track.

It's been a deliberate decision of Formula E to go to cities and not dedicated tracks. The vehicles are _much_ quieter than ICE racing cars, so they don't have to worry much about noise, and a popup circuit can work. I think it's a good strategy, but unfortunately they included Monaco..

 

[phoggy123]

I think the discussion around eventual market cap is always fun and exciting to think about. I am not a chartist like some of the others on here and definitely think most algo's trade off these which becomes self fulfilling.....With that said I'd be careful counting ATH's this year. I wrote a post a month ago or so about some of the headwinds specific to the United States, but I don't believe we are going into a goldilocks scenario with the global economy. It would truly be unprecedented to have the bond market inverted this deeply while also having a soft or no landing with the economy. Consumer debt is rising super fast and we have many, many zombie corporations that at some point are going to have to refinance their 1-4% bonds to something untenable. I believe JPOW when he says higher for longer, whether thats a mistake or not...who knows.

I am not one for predictions but Elon urging people to stay away from margin, while also signaling their ability/willingness to sell at almost no margin in the short to medium term to fulfill the long term goal of autonomy cannot be ignored. I could be catastrophically wrong on this to my own detriment but I believe auto gross margins will be disappointing but with the slim hope that battery storage saves EPS. Wall Street is just waiting for the moment to swing the hammer here given the run up. I hope we blow out earnings and burn them yet again...but I'm cautious to say the least.

For those that have been around here and in TSLA long enough, we all know that the options market wags this dog. It would not shock me to retest some of those lower chartist lines (mid to upper 100's) in the coming months given the massive run up and the likelihood call options and margin are on the rise. I've had my run ins with margin both good and bad and have learned many lessons that I fortunately have time to recover from. Dont be the Tesla Economist and mess it up. Ride this horse to 2030 and let's hope single digit trillions looks hilariously simple in hindsight.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Be it Macron or Meloni or Modi or Anwar or Xi or Merkel. Not sure if Musk met Mexican President

I don't think Elon met with Xi in China either. Last month in Beijing, he met with Vice-Premier Ding, and a few CEOs such as CATL's Luqun.

 

[EQC_]

Random thoughts on superchargers opening up:

It has been said that Tesla owners And owners of other EVs will pay the same rate at superchargers...but that's not necessarily 100% accurate.

Tesla's referral credits and other promotions often result in free supercharging miles for Tesla owners.

I know some of the other manufacturers have gifted new EV owners with some amount of free charging on one network or another...but that's a bit different since the other manufacturers dont actually own the network and those networks are less reliable.

What are the chances that:

• Other manufacturers gift new owners with free supercharging...and have to pay Tesla directly for those charge sessions?
• Tesla sets up a system where non-Tesla owners can get referral credits if they buy a Tesla or convince a friend to?
• Tesla increases the opportunities for Tesla owners to win free supercharging miles, and owners of other EVs start realizing that many of the Tesla owners they meet at superchargers are getting free charging?
• Tesla starts offering test drives at key times at some superchargers, possibly with some limited time offer?

Potentially quite interesting possibilities to enhance Tesla's position ...

 

[Grifon]

Random thoughts on superchargers opening up:

It has been said that Tesla owners And owners of other EVs will pay the same rate at superchargers...but that's not necessarily 100% accurate.

I expect you will see something like a monthly Tesla Charging membership via the Tesla app or the ability to pay as you go, with 10-15% uplift once this all gets sorted out. There have been no details about how pricing will work other than it will be the same pricing, but no explanation about how you get to that real pricing. Tesla still has to have a team of people to update the app, maintain the api, perform testing, design/build/test charging adapters, etc. All those costs need to be burdened by someone, whether it’s the auto manufacturer now and the non-Tesla consumer later remains to be seen.

 

[winfield100]

I remain single-mindedly focused on one Market situation, as in the above from the May 24 - June 8 period. The next 13F deadline is August 14 (so long from now!); that is when we will learn the extent to which BlackRock has or hasn't increased its TSLA position. For the record, as of March 31, they held 178.66MM shares, #2 amongst Institutional Investors after Vanguard's 220.62MM. I'll wager they may have surpassed Vanguard by the end of last quarter.

@AudubonB
IF you follow the Accumulation/Distribution Indicator. based on OHLCV, (daily range. so Gaps make it flaky) a cumulative indicator, often silent
from Jan 2023 - end of February 2023,, _in aggregate_. around 2 billion more shares were bought at fractionally higher prices than sold at fractionally lower prices, then mostly sideways until tada, around 5/24 another ~1.1 Billion accumulated at fractionally higher than sold at fractionally lower, so your suspicions may be correct, so as a very translucent glimpse it may be confirmatory

looks suspiciously like around 5/17 to mid Juneis when buying/accumulating began (w/o tax transactions slippage?)