Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[2daMoon]

And then there's Tesla Energy.
They have a total of 12Gwh of storage in operation at 99% efficiency today. Enough to power 14.4M homes for an hour.

Better yet, Lathrop can produce 40Gwh/year of Megapacks.

Tesla highlights latest milestone in Megapack energy storage deployment

Tesla shared a new milestone it recently reached with its Megapacks, highlighting the company's continued progress in helping the world...

www.teslarati.com

 

[Chunky Jr.]

I'm looking forward to the construction progress videos...

https://twitter.com/x/status/1734697848694812810

 

[ggr]

This article is a little disappointing:

"Tesla Files" whistleblower alerts UK authorities about potential security risk

A Tesla whistleblower has alerted UK authorities about a potential security risk concerning the EV maker's handling of employee data.

www.teslarati.com

I'm not so disappointed that Tesla had some internal data security problems. Every company has those.

I'm more disappointed to hear that Tesla is using Jira. I always thought that Tesla used its own home-grown software for these purposes or at least used open source. Jira is neither.

Elon has been friends with Atlassian founder Mike Cannon-Brooks. My company uses Jira and Confluence extensively, couldn't find anything as good in Open Source, and they're not terribly expensive.

 

[Thekiwi]

Tesla offering 1% financing in Germany on the LR model Y.

Much better solution for a lot of potential buyers than simple discounting.

 

[Usain]

Out of the guesstimate of ~2 million current reservation holders, what percentage do you consider likely to take delivery before 2025 brings the single motor version?

I seem to recall a poll indicated that the lion's share of respondents reserved the 2 motor, and the single and triple were the outliers above and below that. So, let's call it 25% Single motor, 50% Dual motor, and 25% Tri motor.

Take the single motor count out for now. That leaves 1.5 million reservations for models that can be delivered in 2024.

Would 25% of that total taking delivery of a 2 or 3 motor CT seem a good working number to use? That is 375,000 CTs.

Maybe, just maybe, they deliver 80K in 2024, and 175K in 2025, ramping to an annual output of 250K at the end of 2025. Optimistic, but let's use it.

There would still be almost 120K of existing reservation holders in queue at the end of 2025, based on only a 25% take rate of 75% of existing reservations.

Now, add to that "short line" every CT reservation that has been made since the delivery event.

Also factor in how the current single motor reservations will begin deliveries in 2025 (but let's not even add those 125K CTs into the calculations)

Explain how someone ordering now will take delivery at any time in 2025, or even 2026, even when using a pessimistic fill rate on reservations and an optimistic production ramp.

It's easy to explain. We can start with the fact that Elon said there are over 1 million reservations, not 2 million. We can end with the fact that Tesla says if you order now you will take delivery in 2024. Tesla knows better than we do and I don't think they are lying.

 

[Usain]

There will be no 1 motor CT. 2 and 3 motor will remain in production. IMO

As an investor, I kind of hope you are right and there is so much demand for 2 and 3 motor that they never need to make the RWD.

But I believe at some point, Tesla will need to sell an affordable pickup truck to serve the mission. So the RWD will make sense.

 

[MC3OZ]

I wonder if might be similar to FDDI (and later CDDI) rings, which is deterministic by virtue of being a token-based network (they mention Etherloop uses TDMA), and allowing for loops in order to provide redundancy, but their implementation of Etherloop[1] uses ethernet-style packet frames, allowing for ease of existing devices to digest the packet payload?

[1] Interestingly "Etherloop" was DSL'ish last-mile data delivery technology...

If it isn't a token ring, it may just be TDM, with each controller having an allocated timeslot in which it can send. Large bandwidth, fast transmit and a low number of controllers, mean timeslots come around often enough for the architecture to be sufficiently responsive..

Even if the controller has nothing new or interesting to send, it may just send a 'status packet'.

This overcomes a major limitation of conventional ethernet which is "collision detection".

 

[MC3OZ]

Keep in mind that CT sales are spoken for, for the foreseeable future. It will be at least five years or more before Tesla runs out of current reservation holders, plus any who put in a reservation going forward.

There could be a consistent year or longer wait for CT delivery once existing reservations are filled if fresh reservations come in at only 10% the rate of those placed since the reveal.

There should be ample, "I don't want to buy CT because..." buyers in the market to absorb electric pickups from other OEMs. If for no other reason than they want/need an electric truck NOW and cannot get a CT for several years.

Cybertruck sales will NOT be cutting into ICE or BEV pickup sales for at least another five years. That die is cast, so the legacy OEMs have a window of opportunity to get their foot in the door before it slams shut. (mixing architectural metaphors is a specialty of mine)

When they discussed castings, the rate of 5,000 CTs per week was mentioned and this is probably the initial installed capacity.

When they are able to ramp to 5,000 per week, they may consider capacity expansion. 5,000 per week by the end of 2024 would be a great result, it could take longer than that.

 

[BornToFly]

We can end with the fact that Tesla says if you order now you will take delivery in 2024.

I don't think that means what you think it means.
I think it means regular deliveries start in 2024. Ordering now probably gets you one in 2026 or 27.

 

[samn]

Based on the range and acceleration specs I'm guessing the single motor Cybertruck is planned to use LFP (4680 LFP?) or some other cheaper and less energy dense battery. This would make sense as they can then develop a separate battery supply for these cells and ramp to higher production via multiple sources/chemistries.

Whether that becomes a dual motor standard range or ends up being rear wheel I don't know, but I think a lower cost chemistry must be a primary factor in the future lower cost Cybertruck.

Edit: typos

 

[uscbucsfan]

I don't think that means what you think it means.
I think it means regular deliveries start in 2024. Ordering now probably gets you one in 2026 or 27.

This is the logical answer.

 

[uscbucsfan]

Based on the range and acceleration specs I'm guessing the single motor Cybertruck is planned to use LFP (4680 LFP?) or some other cheaper and less energy dense battery. This would make sense as they can then have develop a separate battery supply for these and ramp to higher production via multiple sources/chemistries.

Whether that becomes a dual motor standard range or ends up being rear wheel I don't know, but I think the know cost chemistry must be a primary factor in the future lower cost Cybertruck.

Edit: typos

No, not LFP.

 

[dhanson865]

Unless things change drastically, I don't think even 125k next year is possible. Elon already said the 125k is the production limit next year, but if you look at the first 1,000, they have an estimated delivery window from now to March 2024.

I said it was priced in, I said nothing about whether it would or could happen. As a reminder my post was

I'd say Cybertruck at 125,000 a year is priced in, actually hitting 250,000 a year or higher in the short term (before Dec 2024) and/or a provable obvious ramp towards a higher number above 250,000 (in any year) hasn't been priced in yet.

 

[Thekiwi]

I said it was priced in, I said nothing about whether it would or could happen. As a reminder my post was

What exactly does “priced in“ refer to?

Assuming within a few years they can ramp to 250k per year @ $80k ASP and 25% Gross Margin, that is $5 Billion in gross margin dollars & conservatively $3 Billion in net income.

Assuming some reasonable annual growth beyond the medium term 250k units, then conservative market cap contribution for the CyberTruck arguably maybe 20-25x net income = $60-$75 Billion in market cap once the 250k run rate is hit, and discounting back that to today would be ~$50 Billion perhaps.

By comparison, annual run rate of 10 million next gen cars selling @ $30k ASP ($300 Billion) & 20% Gross Margin ($60 Billion) is probably worth 20 x the cybertruck market cap, potentially as high as a trillion dollars.

 

[insaneoctane]

I just need to whine a little and you guys seem more likely to understand…

HODL has been harder to justify over the last few years for me. Who would have thought that the SPY would outperform TSLA for the last 3 years? Isn’t Tesla an awesome high growth stock that’s really going places (I know it is)? This graph is disappointing.

SPY=Blue. TSLA=Black. Pop=3 years.

 

[ShareLofty]

Of course their BoDs are listening;; that's why they are paying exorbitant fees to NY PR firms to attack Elon, and *sugar* on everything he does.

Elon is doing enough damage on his own. No PR firm needed to attack him

 

[M|S|M MYP]

I just need to whine a little and you guys seem more likely to understand…

HODL has been harder to justify over the last few years for me. Who would have thought that the SPY would outperform TSLA for the last 3 years? Isn’t Tesla an awesome high growth stock that’s really going places (I know it is)? This graph is disappointing.

SPY=Blue. TSLA=Black. Pop=3 years.

View attachment 998830

As they always say "When in doubt...zoom out". Agree on the HODL for the last few years but aren't we all in $TSLA for the next decade at least? Right? Right?

 

[powertoold]

Uhhh wow?

https://x.com/Tesla_Optimus/status/1734756150137225501?s=20

 

[EVNow]

Explain how someone ordering now will take delivery at any time in 2025, or even 2026, even when using a pessimistic fill rate on reservations and an optimistic production ramp.

Remember 3 deliveries in Q1 '19, after a blockbuster Q3/Q4 '18 ?

Tesla will have to start lowering prices (offer lower models) to induce all those reservation holders to convert. People who order now and want a beast will get it in 2025, for sure.

 

[Fred42]

I think it's more than a little coincidence that Ford cut F-150e production by 80K (1,600/wk * 50 wks) just a few days after Cybertruck begins deliveries... with many Auto analysts predicting North of 80K CTs to be produced in 2024. Obviously, Ford expects CT to eat E-150 sales by a 1:1 ration next year.

Begs the question: if Tesla can get the RWD Cybertruck to the Market in 2025, will Ford sell ANY Lightning going forward? Ford can not cut prices enough to make up for an abundant supply of a superior product.

Remember the new designed-from-the-ground-up-EV Lightning is supposed to come onto the market in 2025. Little is known about it.