mtndrew1
Active Member
Where I live EVs are about a third of new car sales, the vehicles themselves are no longer any sort of statement.
And my F150 is gas, thank you very much ;-)
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
And my F150 is gas, thank you very much ;-)
With regards to advertising, I think some people aren’t aware of Tesla vehicles, can afford them and are not put of by the leaders behaviour ( or not aware of it) and this is where targeted advertising will help.
My idea is Tesla find an area say an hours drive from a service centre. Where:
People can charge at home.
Can afford the vehicles.
Supercharges available so people can get to destinations from this location.
Then advertise on local tv, papers, radio, facebook and mention that vehicles are available at x location ( malls etc) to view and test drives can be arranged.
Do this for a couple of months and see if in that area sales increase. If they do then repeat this process in other areas.
My idea is Tesla find an area say an hours drive from a service centre. Where:
People can charge at home.
Can afford the vehicles.
Supercharges available so people can get to destinations from this location.
Then advertise on local tv, papers, radio, facebook and mention that vehicles are available at x location ( malls etc) to view and test drives can be arranged.
Do this for a couple of months and see if in that area sales increase. If they do then repeat this process in other areas.
Yeah and where you live, the majority of those sales are still going to Tesla. So there you go, your Magga hat blends right in with the other half a million Magga hats in California.
Incase I'm not clear....no one cares about your car and what it stands for especially where you live. Bring that Tesla to the deep rural south and maybe there might be a truck driver who gives you a funny look. ..so it's a personal problem you may want to look into.
When you get your new non-Tesla EV, are you also willing to accept a (moderately) inferior charging network, or will you use Tesla Superchargers?
I’ve come to believe that Elon doesn’t like to lose (see all current and prior endeavors), but he’s also ok with volatility in the short-term. My outlook is medium-long term, and I have confidence in him winning (against ICE, carbon emissions, etc) but it’s been a long time since he’s spoken passionately about climate change and I think that’s a shame for both the brand and the battle.
I hope he finds his way back to the core principles of Tesla (and the BOD fixes his comp package… what is happening with that?).
I hope he finds his way back to the core principles of Tesla (and the BOD fixes his comp package… what is happening with that?).
It's positive because it neglects the elephant in the room: why such a drop in demand?
AFAIK, the auto market grew in the US and Europe. I don't know about total China but BYD BEV sales grew YoY this quarter. Tesla's sales decreased in total so something isn't right.
Krugerrand
Meow
Somebody said something a few weeks ago because there was a meeting that happened and caused a bunch of analysts to downgrade and change their estimates. I imagine the CFO was in that meeting.
That meeting happened approximately 2/3rds into the quarter. I think it happened before the Germany incident. Regardless, Tesla can only guess how the rest of the quarter goes. Maybe they guessed wrong? They clearly indicated to all the special people who get to have private meetings with Tesla IR that things weren’t trending as hoped. Maybe the special people got it wrong?
Additionally, I’m kind of tired after only two ERs of people
ing on the new CFO because he has an accent, because he’s under directives different than Zach was during his tenure but somehow that’s his fault, etc…Dude needs to watch the books and make sure Tesla isn’t getting into a financial predicament. So far he’s done that job well in ever increasing difficult economic times and during VERY different company times (than Zach’s).
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Krugerrand
Meow
Except Elon is the only billionaire (on paper, certainly doesn’t have the money in his pocket)) that’s actually trying to save you and your offspring - for whatever reason I surely do not know.
GhostSkater
Member
So I have a few points that might be interesting to discuss
1 - How many people cancelled their Model 3 order in the last/this quarter and are waiting for Highland?
2 - Same for Ludicrous 3, although impact would be smaller
3 - How many waiting for a refresh Model Y? That although we have sources saying it's far away, who knows
4 - Berlin, with the time it takes from production to delivery, I think it's fair to say since the attacks barely if any of the produced car there have been delivered, inventory in one place doesn't help to fill the void in a unexpected production loss
In my opinion those have a much bigger impact than any "Someone shouldn't say stuff" points
1 - How many people cancelled their Model 3 order in the last/this quarter and are waiting for Highland?
2 - Same for Ludicrous 3, although impact would be smaller
3 - How many waiting for a refresh Model Y? That although we have sources saying it's far away, who knows
4 - Berlin, with the time it takes from production to delivery, I think it's fair to say since the attacks barely if any of the produced car there have been delivered, inventory in one place doesn't help to fill the void in a unexpected production loss
In my opinion those have a much bigger impact than any "Someone shouldn't say stuff" points
mtndrew1
Active Member
Either; I very rarely use fast charging and Tesla has removed the supercharger moat so I’ll use those if/when I need them.
The point of my post on this thread is that Elon’s antics have removed the likelihood of me buying another one of his cars. The people in my bubble are often well heeled and are acting in the same way, actively replacing their Teslas with other EVs (Kia and VW in the example listed earlier in the thread). Whether this is “sad” or whatever, two automakers got two units out the door that might have otherwise gone to Tesla.
I support all things EV and have for decades. If you’re an investor this might be noteworthy or it might be an anecdotal nonsense, don’t spend all my $0.02 in one place.
A relatively shrinking market
Yeah, its holding up surprisingly well given the P&D and how bad the market overall is doing today.
Well no one should be too surprised with the deliveries result as that trend was portended in Troy's data.
What's interesting to me is pretzel logic to try to avoid admitting demand has been hurt. Not why, just that is has.
Outside of list prices being cut heavily vs Q1 of last year while interest rates were not that different, we also have knowledge of the used car trends.
Yes, I'm going to bring up used car trends again. The average price of a used Model 3 and Model Y have dropped over $6000 in the past 5 months! There's no way that's not related to demand for new Tesla vehicles. If you drop the price of a lightly used 2023 Model 3 by $5000, less people are gonna pay a higher premium for a new one.
So no, it's not a surprise that we saw this trend in the data and then it would show up in less people wanting to buy new Teslas in Q1 unless prices were cut even further.
On the bright side, it seems the drop in prices is starting to slow down. Some of that is seasonality as you can see the CarGuru index turning up.
The main problem isn't one quarter of bad deliveries, it's about what will the market reasonably estimate will be growth in deliveries and operating margins over the next few years? I recently forecast $5 in 2025, but even that had some optimism built in. Operating margins might be in the 7% range for Q1. Getting them back to 10% would be a huge achievement, but at the same time not super high.
As for deliveries, now Tesla isn't likely to hit 2 million this year. 2025 might now be 2.2 to 2.3 million. With lower operating margins and deliveries than expected before, possible earnings are closer to $4.
5 million cars per year might take until 2028. We can't assume 20 million anymore. It's very clear any country that has tariff-free access to Chinese cars will receive a whole bunch of those and Tesla's margins will be competed down to (e.g. Tesla will NOT return to having big gross margins from Shanghai). Yes they may have better margins than competitors, but those competitiors will just go to breakeven).
5 million EVs at 10% operating margin will stil justify a higher share price than the current level. You can probably get $6 EPS from it. But it's gonna take 4 years or so to get there. With some discounting rate and PE of say 30-40, fair day current value of that pure automotive portion of the company is probably worth around $150.
The share price value above $150 in the next year can from (my guesses):
1) FSD (obviously)
2) Big margins and growth from Cybertruck
3) Big margins and growth from Energy (but hard to see this happening in next 12 months due to lag)
4) Unexpected news on next gen brought to production earlier than expected.
What's interesting to me is pretzel logic to try to avoid admitting demand has been hurt. Not why, just that is has.
Outside of list prices being cut heavily vs Q1 of last year while interest rates were not that different, we also have knowledge of the used car trends.
Yes, I'm going to bring up used car trends again. The average price of a used Model 3 and Model Y have dropped over $6000 in the past 5 months! There's no way that's not related to demand for new Tesla vehicles. If you drop the price of a lightly used 2023 Model 3 by $5000, less people are gonna pay a higher premium for a new one.
So no, it's not a surprise that we saw this trend in the data and then it would show up in less people wanting to buy new Teslas in Q1 unless prices were cut even further.
On the bright side, it seems the drop in prices is starting to slow down. Some of that is seasonality as you can see the CarGuru index turning up.
The main problem isn't one quarter of bad deliveries, it's about what will the market reasonably estimate will be growth in deliveries and operating margins over the next few years? I recently forecast $5 in 2025, but even that had some optimism built in. Operating margins might be in the 7% range for Q1. Getting them back to 10% would be a huge achievement, but at the same time not super high.
As for deliveries, now Tesla isn't likely to hit 2 million this year. 2025 might now be 2.2 to 2.3 million. With lower operating margins and deliveries than expected before, possible earnings are closer to $4.
5 million cars per year might take until 2028. We can't assume 20 million anymore. It's very clear any country that has tariff-free access to Chinese cars will receive a whole bunch of those and Tesla's margins will be competed down to (e.g. Tesla will NOT return to having big gross margins from Shanghai). Yes they may have better margins than competitors, but those competitiors will just go to breakeven).
5 million EVs at 10% operating margin will stil justify a higher share price than the current level. You can probably get $6 EPS from it. But it's gonna take 4 years or so to get there. With some discounting rate and PE of say 30-40, fair day current value of that pure automotive portion of the company is probably worth around $150.
The share price value above $150 in the next year can from (my guesses):
1) FSD (obviously)
2) Big margins and growth from Cybertruck
3) Big margins and growth from Energy (but hard to see this happening in next 12 months due to lag)
4) Unexpected news on next gen brought to production earlier than expected.
Net metering got killed for non CA folks. Batteries, about another $15k-$20k are required for any ROI and you will get 1:0.12 (San Diego) or 1:0.25 metering now.
What's happened since California cut home solar payments? Demand has plunged 80%
As rooftop solar projects have plummeted, about 17,000 workers could lose their jobs. Will this derail California's climate and clean energy goals?
calmatters.org
Buckminster
Well-Known Member
Discussion topics:
1) IRA credit at point of sale has not been nearly as positive as expected. $1k increase seems odd when there seems to be at least a minor demand problem rn:
EV and Battery Credits
2) Q1 should be the bottom if Tesla can sell vehicles in Q2:
Is advertising key or will FSD sell cars? Is the limited advertising working?
Need for Tesla Advertising / PR
3) I quite like robotaxi discussion here but I find it difficult to swap between topics. If folk want to move it out:
Tesla Network prerequisites
Tesla Network / Robotaxi Business Model
Super Bulls Only
4) Bullish Robotaxi valuations:
Super Bull Future TSLA Valuations
5) Earnings valuations for Q1 given poor numbers:
Near-future quarterly financial projections
6) Downgrades will be coming in soon that will likely impact SP before earnings
Analyst TSLA Price Targets
7) Highland and Juniper
8) The elephant in the room:
Tesla Optimus Sub-Prime Robot
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shrspeedblade
Rideshare Monkey
I had an experience like this yesterday with a plug in Prius owners. I could tell she didn't like my "A Prius is not an EV" comment but I limited it to that. I of course thought of the perfect thing to say after she was gone so take note:
"You seem pretty well informed on Elon's political opinions, for the sake of intellectual honesty it would be beneficial to be as equally informed of the political/lobbying efforts of the company(s) you support to prolong the ICE age.
(I have to worry about getting 1- starred, otherwise it would be "you're a virtue signaling idiot!"
Make no mistake here in the $TSLA bubble though, Elon's actions have had an impact. As investors that should concern us all. Disregarding it is another form of intellectual dishonesty.
Living wage taxi drivers got killed off and in the U.S. nobody lifted a finger. Uber may eventually be the author of their own death sentence in the way they've chosen to run their company. Hopefully this is the most ironic outcome.
I posted a similar thought months ago that got mod deleted (1st time ever) for why I'll never understand, but Uber for most of their history has been (and to a lesser degree still is) a silicon valley cash furnace. They are not efficient with capital at all, ala Twitter before Elon's takeover. First investors and now drivers are subsidizing their business model. @Gigapress touched on this informatively.
Tale from the trenches:
FSD approached the exit to a gated community yesterday, stopped 5ft short of the gate and waited patiently for it to open. then pulled through!
Slight disagree... the accent isn't the issue for me; it's the perception that he has less backbone than Zach and less willing to challenge Elon (behind the scenes). From a career preservation perspective, I don't fault him for this but from a highly-compensated steward of the company I think he shares some of the blame.Somebody said something a few weeks ago because there was a meeting that happened and caused a bunch of analysts to downgrade and change their estimates. I imagine the CFO was in that meeting.
That meeting happened approximately 2/3rds into the quarter. I think it happened before the Germany incident. Regardless, Tesla can only guess how the rest of the quarter goes. Maybe they guessed wrong? They clearly indicated to all the special people who get to have private meetings with Tesla IR that things weren’t trending as hoped. Maybe the special people got it wrong?
Additionally, I’m kind of tired after only two ERs of people
Dude needs to watch the books and make sure Tesla isn’t getting into a financial predicament. So far he’s done that job well in ever increasing difficult economic times and during VERY different company times.
My impression is he got the role partly because of this.
A good CFO watches the books; a great CFO helps guides the company while also watching the books. Big difference.
The point of my post is that Elon’s antics haven’t removed the likelihood of you using the Supercharger network.
That is not consistent with you not willing to buy another Tesla.
Have you considered that keeping to use the supercharger network may be more profitable to Tesla (over the lifetime of your new car) than actually buying a new car (maybe not for you as you don’t need the Supercharger network a lot, but the people in your bubble may have that need)?
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