That LateAuto articles has its errors and flaws but thinking that Cybertruck is another "Model X" moment is quite reasonable. Boredom is Musk biggest enemy and we don't know how it would have played out, but I'm sure there is a better present out there in the multiverse where Model X didn't happen and Musk just went straight to the ICE jugular with the 3 a couple years in advance. He actually said that in retrospect he wouldn't have bult that if he knew how difficult it was.
Maybe the Cybertruck is the same and it delayed the "Model 2" a couple of years too. Also GFs are a politics game and now Musk with X is not neutral at all, I'm sure there are many delays that couldn't have happened if he wasn't so exposed...
Anyway, I'm not too worried about the autonomy pivot: I don't see as a "bet the farm", but in 6 months time we'll now more. The SP is likely gonna suffer.
A few thoughts...mostly that there are so many variables that are tough to quantify but often get completely ignored or downplayed when assigning "blame" for Tesla's timing.
1) I think part of the "delay" in the Model X was actually that the Model S had much higher demand than expected. Tesla and Elon have never made this connection, but I think the early expectation was that the Model S would have demand for about 10,000 per year. Model X was revealed in February 2012, before any S's were delivered -- the first S deliveries were in June of 2012 (at least according to some quick google work). The first Model X was delivered in late 2015, but in that in-between time, the Model S production was ramping up well above that 10,000 per year number. I suspect that, in real-time, Tesla was moving resources and plans around to ramp up the Model S processes and put fewer resources into the Model X. No real sense in spending money on the difficult task of adding a second model when you haven't yet done the somewhat easier work of making production meet demand on the existing model.
2) The timing of the Model 3 was still reliant on battery availability...which really meant Giga Nevada and Panasonic. We know that during the Model 3 ramp, there was some sloshing back and forth, with Tesla's production hell sometimes being the limiting factor, and Panasonic's ramp of batteries sometimes being the limiting factor. Of course, I have no idea how things would have played out if the Model X had not come before the Model 3...but Giga Nevada was truly needed before the Model 3 would make economic sense.
3) I think sortof similar with Cybertruck and Model 2 -- the Model 2 also needs even more massive quantities of cheaper batteries, and preferably US-made for the tax credit reasons, at least in the US market. So, yes, there was some resource draw to the cybertruck, but I also don't ignore the fact that even if Tesla had put everything into Model 2 a few years ago, it's not like there were enough batteries available to make a million Model 2's in the US in, say, 2022 or 2023. Obviously, several years ago, Tesla started work to design/build their own cells, while simultaneously saying they would buy any and all qualified sells from suppliers too. So, what more could they do to get more cells in 2022 or 2023?