Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Southpasfan]

He’s not wrong that they should. Will they all understand. Absolutely not. And that’s okay. They can carry on being oblivious.

We have people here who don’t understand what’s happening with FSD. All they can do is point out what doesn’t work for them. My car recently drove me hundreds of miles; two lanes, mountain passes, super highway, city, roundabouts including, with authority and way more confidence than I could have mustered, a complex roundabout imbedded in another roundabout - like WTH!? - and then later thought it should turn left on what used to be a road through a moving train , but then realized ‘no longer a road’, corrected itself and went down the road further and turned at the lights like it should. Many people would be ‘it tried to kill me!!!’ and ‘it’s not ready for prime time’. Me? I was ‘****! That’s amazing! It figured out its mistake, corrected itself, and executed. It didn’t give up. It worked the problem, found the solution.

Always like the Cat's take.

Sometimes I wonder if it is just me (FSD since 2019). I cannot think of any other product, this advanced, this potentially life changing, this valuable, COMPLETELY PUBLIC no less, and yet as far as I can tell undervalued.

Its like having an iphone a year or so before they widely release it. Or something, I am not even sure that is a good example.

If you look, not at what FSD requires to be made perfect, but where it is at now, it is astonishing.

 

[Ellec]

And the (WIFI) bandwidth needed to get the input data to the car and the results back.

Starlink + Distributed inference compute farm all controlled by Tesla. Could be another whole business. It wont be suitable for a lot of workloads that would traditionally use AWS/Azure etc but for a lot it might be a option if they get the pricing right.

 

[MartinAustin]

And... Rob Mauer is hired as the new VP Investor Relations at Tesla!!!!

(in my ideal world)

 

[Causalien]

There's a reason why this move for cheaper version need to happen now.

China has finished building out its own supply chain for lower cost EVs. So now every corp in china and their ccp daddy can sell a cheapo EV using the same suoply chain. Heck Huawei is coming out with one.

At the same time both usa and europe is considering an anti dumping tax against Chinese EVs. So there's going to be a vaccum of lower priced ev in the western world in the near future.

 

[Drumheller]

The Reuters story kind of was true, but it was missing half of the story, the most important half!

Great way to manipulate readers, lying by omission.

And... Rob Mauer is hired as the new VP Investor Relations at Tesla!!!!

(in my ideal world)

That would be awesome!

 

[Unpilot]

I had FSD drive me home from Breakfast with my son. The route was a right turn out of the parking lot followed by a U turn in less than a quarter of a mile. This on a rd with posted speed limit of 45 MPH....so everyone drives 55-60.

Car pulled out ....sped up nicely...moved over three lanes waited till it was clear...did the U turn and drove me home.

The combination of hardware and software is AMAZING!

I have been in the beta for a year or so and watching the improvement has been a pleasure.
I am glad I was in some small way helpful in Tesla creating such a transformational machine.

Elon is right...you have to experience it to understand.

 

[jerry33]

He’s not wrong that they should. Will they all understand. Absolutely not. And that’s okay. They can carry on being oblivious.

We have people here who don’t understand what’s happening with FSD. All they can do is point out what doesn’t work for them. My car recently drove me hundreds of miles; two lanes, mountain passes, super highway, city, roundabouts including, with authority and way more confidence than I could have mustered, a complex roundabout imbedded in another roundabout - like WTH!? - and then later thought it should turn left on what used to be a road through a moving train , but then realized ‘no longer a road’, corrected itself and went down the road further and turned at the lights like it should. Many people would be ‘it tried to kill me!!!’ and ‘it’s not ready for prime time’. Me? I was ‘****! That’s amazing! It figured out its mistake, corrected itself, and executed. It didn’t give up. It worked the problem, found the solution.

Agreed. Although I nitpick FSD, I wouldn't be without it. I've driven at least 45K miles on FSD (mostly highway until the last few V11 releases).

 

[Artful Dodger]

It's out:
https://digitalassets.tesla.com/tesla-contents/image/upload/IR/TSLA-Q1-2024-Update.pdf

Outlook | Product:

"We have updated our future vehicle line-up to accelerate the launch of new models ahead of our previously communicated start of production in the second half of 2025.

"These new vehicles, including more affordable models, will utilize aspects of the next generation platform as well as aspects of our current platforms, and will be able to be produced on the same manufacturing lines as our current vehicle line-up.

"This update may result in achieving less cost reduction than previously expected but enables us to prudently grow our vehicle volumes in a more capex efficient manner during uncertain times.

"This would help us fully utilize our current expected maximum capacity of close to three million vehicles, enabling more than 50% growth over 2023 production before investing in new manufacturing lines.

"Our purpose-built robotaxi product will continue to pursue a revolutionary “unboxed” manufacturing strategy."

So there you have it in a nutshell folks: Model 2 is not canceled, in fact it's going to be a shortened Model Y variant, and it sounds like there will be more than one variant. Finally, robotaxi will come after these new variants; growth has been reprioritized.

Brilliant!

 

[DarkandStormy]

Tesla has a negative cash conversion cycle. Operating assets generate FCF during growth, drain cash when they shrink. It's the opposite of most companies. Q1 exacerbated this with a huge inventory build.

 

[MartinAustin]

TSLA is increasing after investors read my forum post. Now up to $162

Folks, I was just kidding, I am not privvy to that confidential hiring information... oh my what have I done

 

[GOVA]

OT: This forum needs a self healing algo, besides the mods, to get rid of disease which often has names sounding like pron stars.
The disease has been killing this incredibly valuable forum lately.

We've lost too many great and valuable posters over the years to let the disease continue. 3/4 of last day's post were just response to nonsense disease posts. Absurd.

 

[Carl Raymond]

And the (WIFI) bandwidth needed to get the input data to the car and the results back.

Negligible compared to half an hour of Netflix. It’s only the prompt and the response text that travel. Model updates would also consume a bit, from time to time.

 

[DarkandStormy]

They shared renderings of an app in 2019. Yawn.

 

[Mengy]

View attachment 1041121

They shared renderings of an app in 2019. Yawn.

You posted yet another negative slant about Tesla while missing the forest for the trees, which is all you ever do in this thread. Yawn.

 

[SPadival]

Toni Such a nagging analcyst with his typical passive aggressive question to bait Elon and hurt the stock

I almost expected a repeat of “boneheaded question, let’s go to YouTube” retort

 

[Krugerrand]

Maybe Martin can finish up this “Early Delivery Cybertruck for Long Term Shareholders”? Gee idk.

So not to rub salt in that wound, but to rub salt in it; I sent in my insurance and payment two days ago. Any day now. Heck, probably any minute now.

 

[Discoducky]

OT: This forum needs a self healing algo, besides the mods, to get rid of disease which often has names sounding like pron stars.
The disease has been killing this incredibly valuable forum lately.

We've lost too many great and valuable posters over the years to let the disease continue. 3/4 of last day's post were just response to nonsense disease posts. Absurd.

It has grown so much over the last 12 years and I've let the mod's know that I've put so many people on ignore as I find the discourse abrasive. Everyone is entitled to their opinion and strong beliefs, that is fine, but it honestly feels like yelling fire in a crowded theatre so I ignore it.

I honestly wish folks would ask questions when they are NOT an expert in a given area rather than speak like the sky is falling.

NOTE: Over the last many pages, I've seen zero posts from folks I ignore, FYI. THAT is a data point!

 

[madodel]

Yes, once one or two big names license the rest will follow or die. No one is ever catching up to Tesla in regards to Autonomy. Apple scrapped their autonomous project after pouring billions in, they realised it's over, Tesla has won the race.

Just like NACS. Tesla is the Borg. Join or die.

 

[Eugene Ash]

Distributed inference compute farm. Anybody got a ballpark figure on the value of that? If say 50% opted in for 10hrs a day x 7 million cars. Is it a stock price mover?
Only downside is the energy use and the sounds of cooling and relays closing coming from the garage. We have excess home solar so the energy is free. I’d opt in if it paid for my tyres and rego.

Edit. I figure the base rate paid to car owners has to at least cover energy - say 50c/hr? $5/day * 300days/year (exclude days car isn’t home) = $1,500/yr. Yeah, that covers tyres.
Let’s say Tesla makes the same, by charging $1/hr. $1.5k x 3.5million = roughly $5 billion per annum.

Only question is will the market pay $1/hr for the inference compute power of one Tesla? (It has two independent chips).

That computer would be capable of running an LLM doing useful stuff. I'm at awe how fast the paid version of ChatGPT is and that has some serious compute behind it. Having 2M paid-for nodes to run LLM for inquiries, chats, github copilot stuff would be a great usecase, and a profitable one too. Elon knows how much he pays for Grok to operate, and they could engineer that thing to run in a distributed fashion. So 8$ premium X could indeed pay for your tires.

 

[DarkandStormy]

You posted yet another negative slant about Tesla while missing the forest for the trees, which is all you ever do in this thread. Yawn.

They did nothing with the app for five years, but *now* it's happening for real