I think that’s the case on magic docks. Not sure about ford and Rivian owners using the adapter. Really don’t know.
-
Want to remove ads? Register an account and login to see fewer ads, and become a Supporting Member to remove almost all ads.
Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Sure… a “severe recession” didn’t occur but things definitely went from great to not “good”. Especially in Europe and China.
This is what he said May 1 2023:
He was responding to former US Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers' tweet: "If the Fed continues to do what’s necessary to contain the inflation, slowdown is likely to come. The odds on that happening sometime in the next 12 months I think are pretty good, perhaps 70%."
I think Nvidia has a bigger risk ... as the stock continues to rip higher they will begin to have the same issue Tesla had in the $400/share range .. loss of talent.. which musk was acutely aware of and hiring on a lot of dead weight ... we shall see
They can either pay a higher price or sign up for the membership.
No. That would be if they only made 200 Cybertrucks per week, when he gave you the per day production. (Multiple your numbers by 5-7, as I don't know how many days per week they are currently running the Cybertruck production line.)
Not to mention we already know they are making more than 126,050 cells per day. (That is the average cell production over the last ~8 months.)
at some point in the near future you will have to be an absolute moron to buy/drive a vehicle without FSD ... driving the CT w/o FSD to me is unsafe .. it has the similar feeling to driving without a seatbelt once you realize just how dangerous that is ... i don't know when these other OEMs wake up to the fact that they will have to license FSD from Tesla but the longer they wait the closer to bankruptcy they will be ...
If you're serious about changing your mind, here's my logic:
It should be relatively easy to verify FSD interventions. First, AI itself can be used to distinguish between critical interventions and non-critical ones. This would automate the intervention counts. Second, just count the critical ones in the fleet over miles driven. One critical disengagement over 1M miles across a fleet of 3M cars with 5% using FSD 20% of the time (driven 500 miles / month avg) would only take a couple days to validate.
However, Elon has not released the latest FSD to more than a handful of people. Let's say 1000 Tesla employees? Validation would require 6000 days under the assumptions above. Sure, you can use past interventions in simulations, but that's not the same as validation in the field. Past examples are no guarantee that future scenarios will be handled, especially when dealing with once in 100,000 mile events.
1. I contend that Elon's FSD projections are aspirational, but not based on anything that can be validated.
2. I'm the world's biggest AI optimist and have invested accordingly. But AI still makes a lot of mistakes, especially when dealing with open ended situations. As we've seen, nothing is as open ended as the real world.
What type of accidents do you think fsd prevents compared to existing systems from other OEMs?
Guess I'll be the moron here. Assuming unsupervised, I don't know how the majority of morons out there can simply afford to pay for this stuff when they are not doing well to begin with. $299/month unsupervised? Maybe a person doesn't even drive much and you expect them to dump $300 (guessing for full unsupervised price)?
You had that fairly well off other poster debating whether they want to even pay $10/month for Premium Connectivity and some folks here thinks everyone can even afford whatever actual FSD will end up costing?
There's a reason EV uptake is slowed. Costs too high for most folks. Seatbelts are free/included.
Last edited:
In 2022 the injury rate per 100 million miles driven was 75. It is trending down. That is one injury per 1.33 million miles driven. At 13,500 miles/year that's 98.77 year of driving.
So you could say that people have a 50-50 chance of getting an injury. Fatality rates are 50 times lower
However, that includes:
(1) Non-occupants (increasing, while occupant injuries are decreasing)
(2) People who are drunk
(3) People who are risk-taking (speeding, etc)
(4) People not wearing a seatbelt
(5) People who text while driving
If you are not one of Those People in (2) - (5) your probability of injury would be expected to be much lower, since you're reducing your risk of collision. At least for fatalities a lot result from (2)-(4).
Also, there is more to driver-assistance than FSD. Simpler, less expensive systems can also help reduce injury risk beyond what just not being an idiot does.
just like investing in TSLA was a gut feel from owning the product in 2017 .. my assessment of FSD after driving it for over 2 years is a gut feel ... backward looking statistics be dammed
Based on assorted headlines and "expert" analysts, YES!
With Tesla, everything is a concern!
Production too slow? Problem!
Analyst doesn't like the weird looking truck? Everybody else must hate it too -- Demand Problem!
When demand for Tesla cars shot up? Wait times are too long -- Problem!
Factory shut down for COVID -- Problem!
Factory started back up during COVID -- Problem!
Prices too high? Toys for the rich -- Problem!
Prices come down? A hundred different articles with different reasons on why that's a Problem!
(Near future) Tesla producing and selling more Cybertrucks than the electric Rivian/F150/Hummer/etc? It's obviously a bubble of rich idiots, it'll stop soon -- Problem!
insaneoctane
Well-Known Member
With manipulators taking such advantage of the stock, they aren't going to let go without a fight (see @Papafox daily). They're making too much money controlling the SP relative to options pricing. But, at some point, it will get away from them and that's why it will likely be violent. I don't like this game at all, but the manipulators are constantly rewarded and, thus, this is how it shall be. If someone thinks they can temporarily exit, make enough of a return elsewhere to more than compensate for the losses missed when the manipulators finally lose control, things go a little crazy, and you get back in afterwards....well good luck! I'm sure some will time it well, it just won't be me trying.
Last edited:
quick downvote from a couple trolls on ignore
Some of your comments sound totally useless/troll comments on the bull side really. Simply tone-deaf to normies or the average person when it comes to cost/rewards/use case.
I think Waymo is being completely transparent in what they are doing. They have iterated constantly...just as Tesla did with car production. They iterated on sensors, on vehicles, on maps, on business model. They are doing a classic engineering progression. The direction is so so very clear. Is it the right model? Who knows. What's clear is that in a few years Waymo will have the majority of the urban metro regions mapped and at the same time be ready to deploy the 50k vehicle fleet from Geely. Geely is hiring people in the USA for this purpose. I'd say they have 2 years of just physically standing up the RT business at scale. Concurrent operations will be remapping, expanding from Phoenix, Atlanta, Austin, LA, San Fran, etc to other locations. I guess they are using google data to pick metro regions. Anyway, it all seems very methodical to me and I don't see them really scaling paid service for 2 years at least. That's the window Tesla has to get something close to launch, I believe it's encumbant on Tesla to start doing something in CA with permitting. If they are not trying yet in CA they are not, IMO, serious and/or ready to launch. Permitting could take a couple of years and CA is the most accepting state for EV adoption and new things in general. Also, the rigor CA demands forces one to have a solid product.
You don't think its because it is priced as a growth stock but is not growing?
It’s not Level 4 if Waymo is sending people to physically get into the cars and drive them, you may as well be in a regular taxi/uber. I imagine Waymo can still call it Level 4 when someone remotes in because a human in the driver’s seat doesn’t take over, but that’s questionable in terms of defining autonomy + I don’t know if this capability exists in Teslas manufactured to date + I doubt that’s what Elon is referring to.
Waymo already exists, surely the goal isn’t to just replicate what they’re already doing.
So you think Elon will quit and let someone else finish RT? Not a chance.
Note that this drama is not new. He's been its target for at least a year now and must have run enough different scenarios in his head and I assure you, in many of them, the re-vote failed. Yet, he's still pumping and hyping FSD every chance he's got. Does that look like what a person would do who's about to quit or hasn't thought it through?
When one thinks about it logically, quitting is the worst course of action he can take and he has had way way way too much time to ruminate to act illogically now.
Last edited:
Wait...your definition of "intervene" is "turn the wheel or slam the brakes in real time to prevent an accident" ?
Is there any reason to believe that is Elon or Tesla's meaning for the word? For your definition, I would think a much more specific term would be justified --- something like "safety-critical disengagement."
in·ter·vene
/ˌin(t)ərˈvēn/
verb
1. come between so as to prevent or alter a result or course of events.
I would assume that intervening for FSD would include all the little things like adjusting the scroll wheel to adjust the speed, tapping the accelerator to move away from a stop more quickly, etc. Those are common "interventions" that don't disengage FSD and aren't even usually safety related.
I think over the last couple years, with probably (?) 20,000+ miles on FSD, I've only really had 1 or 2 time-critical disengagements that *might* have prevented an accident
Occasionally, I disengage when the road ahead looks to be full of odd-behaving human drivers or some other strange situation. I just don't know how FSD might react. So, I take over well in advance to proceed with extreme caution. That's probably diffiucult to quantify as any metric on FSD's actual performance or capability.
I also sometimes disengage when I don't like the route FSD is taking, and I want to force an alternate route. That isn't critical at all obviously...and is less frequent now that I can select (some) alternate routes in real time.
My most common FSD disengagement (on my particular driving route...I know other areas have different issues) is just adjusting the steering wheel to avoid potholes that FSD doesn't see. It disengages, but it's not safety critical...these aren't tire-popping/wheel cracking potholes. It's more of a comfort and "reduce the wear and tear on the tires and suspension" issue.
And, of course, I disengage at the end of my drives to manually navigate into a garage or through an entry gate or into a specific driveway and parking area.
Occasionally, I disengage when the road ahead looks to be full of odd-behaving human drivers or some other strange situation. I just don't know how FSD might react. So, I take over well in advance to proceed with extreme caution. That's probably diffiucult to quantify as any metric on FSD's actual performance or capability.
I also sometimes disengage when I don't like the route FSD is taking, and I want to force an alternate route. That isn't critical at all obviously...and is less frequent now that I can select (some) alternate routes in real time.
My most common FSD disengagement (on my particular driving route...I know other areas have different issues) is just adjusting the steering wheel to avoid potholes that FSD doesn't see. It disengages, but it's not safety critical...these aren't tire-popping/wheel cracking potholes. It's more of a comfort and "reduce the wear and tear on the tires and suspension" issue.
And, of course, I disengage at the end of my drives to manually navigate into a garage or through an entry gate or into a specific driveway and parking area.
I gave you a disagree and here's why: there can be many reasons why somebody won't pay for FSD, even in the future when its Level 5. Maybe they are just ignorant of how good it is, or maybe they simply can't (or don't want to) afford the monthly subscription for something they can still do manually (driving). They don't have to be a "moron" to be ignorant of information or on a tight budget.
Similar threads
- Locked
- Locked
- Locked
