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There will be NO HW4 upgrade for HW3 owners
- Thread starter macmee
- Start date
Tam
Well-Known Member
I never mentioned "career".
It's possible to have great legitimate career history but what counts is: is there any hints of deception at the present.
I keep seeing people pointing to the March 2019 date as being a fundamental shift in what the FSD package is supposed to give, and while I think it is something that would be argued in court, I don't think the change on the order page would actually be enough to free Tesla of their previous definitions of the product. In the order process they never give an actual meaningful definition of FSD. This is a feature that costs well over a third of the value of a base model 3 being sold to average consumers. A well informed consumer is likely to seek out the definition of FSD based upon previous statements by Musk and the company in general (including the pre March 2019 definition). The product name hasn't changed and nothing on their site or the motor purchase agreement says anything about what FSD is or (more importantly) isn't.
I think there is validity to their argument in recent cases that they are behind their schedule but are still committed to delivering the product. At some point waiting is not reasonable and courts will decide that threshold. What is not reasonable is if they have been continuing to market FSD without a clear definition of what is being bought when they know that they can't deliver the previous promises with what they are seling. If they are unable to deliver the previously promised FSD capabilities with the current hardware and don't provide the changes required to deliver that then I fully expect that many state attorney generals will get involved in pursuing fraud charges against Tesla and possibly executives directly for the vehicles purchased after they would have reasonably known that they couldn't deliver what they had previously promised. I frankly bought my Tesla almost entirely because of what has been promised with FSD; I know the old saying of "buyer beware" that doesn't alleviate a company of culpability for actual fraud.
With the statements in the earnings call it seems quite clear that they know they are on thin ice; they may be able to meet enough of the promises with HW3 to placate most people and not get hit too hard by the courts but they also know that there is some chance that they are in actual jeopardy of a massive write off for retrofits (they wouldn't admit that until actually doing it though). My suspicion is that they will do pretty decent with HW3 so that most people are satisfied. It will likely be enough to avoid being too juicy of a target for class action or AG action and then they will deal with other cases on an individual basis.
I think there is validity to their argument in recent cases that they are behind their schedule but are still committed to delivering the product. At some point waiting is not reasonable and courts will decide that threshold. What is not reasonable is if they have been continuing to market FSD without a clear definition of what is being bought when they know that they can't deliver the previous promises with what they are seling. If they are unable to deliver the previously promised FSD capabilities with the current hardware and don't provide the changes required to deliver that then I fully expect that many state attorney generals will get involved in pursuing fraud charges against Tesla and possibly executives directly for the vehicles purchased after they would have reasonably known that they couldn't deliver what they had previously promised. I frankly bought my Tesla almost entirely because of what has been promised with FSD; I know the old saying of "buyer beware" that doesn't alleviate a company of culpability for actual fraud.
With the statements in the earnings call it seems quite clear that they know they are on thin ice; they may be able to meet enough of the promises with HW3 to placate most people and not get hit too hard by the courts but they also know that there is some chance that they are in actual jeopardy of a massive write off for retrofits (they wouldn't admit that until actually doing it though). My suspicion is that they will do pretty decent with HW3 so that most people are satisfied. It will likely be enough to avoid being too juicy of a target for class action or AG action and then they will deal with other cases on an individual basis.
Musk stated on first AI day that all current cars with HW3, will be an appreciating asset because they can use Tesla network and make money for the owner. And that was several years ago. This is deception. So Why are they now introducing their own version of robotaxi?
Could you answer that? And can you tell me that your current Tesla with FSD will be an appreciating asset?
To this day and even during the most recent earnings call, he mentioned teslas as appreciating assets. This is pure BS. He has repeatedly said that the cars can drive themselves and make money for the owner. That’s either delusion or deception.
It is also possible that if he said they would retrofit, analyst would downgrade Tesla due to cost, which would affect his twitter loan against the margin call that he has for twitter and tank the stock which would make him sell more stocks.
Thank you. I know he's made statements like that in the past (see my earlier reply) but didn't realize he's still out saying it.
From Tesla (TSLA) Q4 2022 Earnings Call Transcript | The Motley Fool
WTAF.
I find this hard to fathom really. Please humour me as I don’t fully understand what you get when paying such a vast amount for FSD. What does it do as of today?
And you paid for FSD three times with each car and each time it didn't deliver on their promise?
golfpilot
Member
They call it an appreciating asset but when you go to trade in or sell your FSD equipped car you get little to know value. My 18 EAP model 3 with 75k miles got quoted by Tesla only 3k less than a family members FSD equipped 19 car with 40k miles. Everything else is the same. Wrap your head around that. All Tesla is doing is raising the cost of replacement and if they get their hands on the car, they remove the feature and resell it. If they had too much inventory, all they would need to do is offer EAP or FSD transfer to your new car if you trade-in to Tesla.
DarkForest
10.69 made me a shill
That’s not what I was referring to.
I’ve heard people complain about the need to apply torque to the steering wheel. To me, it’s no big deal as I just leave my hand resting on the steering wheel.
I’ve heard people complain about the cabin camera behavior (not including the obvious hardware issues some people have experienced). Keeping my attention on the road is no big deal.
I’ve heard people complain about the attention required to monitor Beta’s behavior because otherwise it’ll try to kill you. For me, it requires little attention and intervening doesn’t ruin the drive for me or anything.
I’ve heard people complain that they just can’t use the Beta with others in the vehicle. Everyone I ever drive around also has ADHD, so I always use the Beta with others in the car.
Elon has said the Beta is amazing. People think he’s exaggerating. I think Elon does exaggerate a ridiculous amount, but I also agree that the Beta is amazing.
Wooloomooloo
Member
Great post. You're right about the 2019 era, but beyond that Musk definitely did claim that full non-intervention autonomy was possible with all cars being sold. I'm sure lawyers will figure it out, but I am really not sure how they can walk back the claims, or at least so heavily implied there really isn't any other explanation for what was said.
In 2019, Musk said:
“Buying a car today is an investment into the future. I think the most profound thing is that if you buy a Tesla today, I believe you are buying an appreciating asset – not a depreciating asset.”
along with
"The cars currently being produced, with the hardware currently being produced, are capable of full self-driving.”
So this is HW3 era, and the only way to interpret this is that HW3 capable cars will appreciate in value because their owners will be able to monetize driver-free autonomy in the future. That's not possible with Level 2, or for that matter even level 3. In fact outside of very specific pre-mapped areas, only level 5 would give this kind of "appreciation" unless your car is just shuttling people around an airport or a parking lot.
Let's not even get into how much our cars just "appreciated" in the last 2 weeks!
TBH, this entire thread breaks my heart, because exactly what has just happened was predicted by plenty of people in 2018, 19, 20 etc., and they were subjected to some astonishing vitriol and venom on this forum, especially from the TSLA crowd. I was suspended from this forum for suggesting FSD (HW3) would never achieve 'robo-taxi' type functionality or any kind of non-intervention autonomy in the TSLA and was repeatedly castigated for it.
And yet, there are still defenders. I really love my 2018 P3D for what it is. It's the best car I've owned, I am even getting Tesla Solar so haven't entirely fallen out with the company, but it's always been a bit of a cult and even now there are plenty of people lacking critical thinking skills who will leap to the defense of everything and anything they do.
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I’m not arguing that Musk hasn’t cast vision for things with unrealistic timeframes or outcomes.
Just that comparison to Holmes is poor.
Also, if your car has received a single free OTA update improvement, how would you classify that?
What are the specs for HW4? If HW4 has additional cameras added (in headlights or front bumper) I’d be upset not being able to upgrade. But if it’s just upgraded 5mp cams and more compute, I dunno, I wouldn’t loose sleep at night.
I generally replace cars every two years or 60,000miles, so worst case, I’m stuck with the old tech for two years. Now, if I held onto cars for years, yeah, I’d be pretty upset.
I generally replace cars every two years or 60,000miles, so worst case, I’m stuck with the old tech for two years. Now, if I held onto cars for years, yeah, I’d be pretty upset.
M109Rider
Active Member
You’re fighting something that isn’t a war yet ….
Are you sure your car with HW3 won’t be FSD capable, or are you fighting just in case ?
jabloomf1230
Minister of Silly Walks
Intel, Nvidia and AMD constantly produce a new generation of CPUs and GPUs that are more capable than the previous generation of chips. This process is known as planned obsolescence. But the improvements only matter if the consumer is hampered by running a piece of vital software on an old chip.
I prefer to wait and see what HW3 can't do, before I start whining.
I prefer to wait and see what HW3 can't do, before I start whining.
stopcrazypp
Well-Known Member
Not true, they had a long description that described the capabilities in detail right in the order page. That's what they may be contractually liable for those people that ordered the option based on that description. They since removed that (apparently around 2019) and moved it to the autopilot page, but from what I can find, they don't link to that from the order page, nor from the model page. Instead the order page only refers to Autosteer on City streets (which they said explicitly is an L2 feature to the CA DMV) as the last deliverable. Tesla will likely argue for those 2019+ cars that is the last deliverable, because that was what was promised on order page.
It puts them in an awkward situation where they promised more to older cars, which makes it hard to do partial retrofits (it doesn't make much logical sense for cars older than 2019 to get future retrofits and newer not).
I suspect if they fail with HW3 (and HW4 can't be retrofitted), they will just do (partial) refunds to the older buyers, as they paid much less anyways. Then fight the 2019+ buyers. Them removing the description from the order page likely was to prepare for this scenario anyways.
Tesla announces all production cars now have fully self-driving hardware
Once again our readers guessed it right (well 40% of you). You said that today’s announcement would be about Autopilot...
electrek.co
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This is categorically not what planned obsolescence is, what you’re describing is just progress.
Planned obsolescence is designing things with components that are known to wear out and are not fixable such that the consumer is forced to buy a new one even though the device is still otherwise fit for purpose.
I feel sorry for those folks that have bought multiple cars and kept buying into the broken promises of FSD.
This buyer isn't falling for it though. Model Y will replace our 3 later this year and have I a reservation for a Cybertruck, neither of which will get FSD until they deliver something that doesn't have "beta" tagged on the end.
This buyer isn't falling for it though. Model Y will replace our 3 later this year and have I a reservation for a Cybertruck, neither of which will get FSD until they deliver something that doesn't have "beta" tagged on the end.
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