TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[2virgule5]

What do you guys think about the probability of Tesla announcing that they pause autopilot in all cars until the Model X crash bug is investigated/fixed? That bothers me - in the light of recent Uber accident and all other fears of the market it might be a significantly bad event.

Zero chance. Tesla/Elon are data driven ; if data says AP is saving lives and reducing accident rate in a significant way (which seems to strongly be the case), they won’t bend unless forced to which is unlikely. More communication on how to use AP and possibly some more nagging for beguiners, and continous improvement, that’s it.

 

[jelloslug]

What do you guys think about the probability of Tesla announcing that they pause autopilot in all cars until the Model X crash bug is investigated/fixed? That bothers me - in the light of recent Uber accident and all other fears of the market it might be a significantly bad event.

What bug?

 

[TheTalkingMule]

I don't know that there's been a software/hardware issue with as of yet. It's all user error from what I gather.

Certainly Elon could be accused of putting a dangerous tool in the hands of idiots, but he's already made up his mind on doing that.

 

[PaulusdB]

...Certainly Elon could be accused of putting a dangerous tool in the hands of idiots, but he's already made up his mind on doing that.

Now I get the whole flamethrower thing...
Just mix with a dose of hard liquor and there you go.

 

[defc0n]

I don't know why this was marked funny but the gains in my newly acquired common are even sweeter when I see this:

Option_Sniper on Twitter



Let's hope he's right!

I’m leaning toward trying to sell between 315-320 right now.

 

[sdtslafan]

Which is more likely tomorrow, profit taking putting downward pressure on price or short squeeze putting upward pressure?

 

[Sancho]

I'm betting the same people who profited from the SP going down are the same people who are now profiting from the SP going up.

Totally agree. There are two kinds of shorts -- the financial players and the ideologues/fools. The financial players will jump at any chance to pound down a volatile stock like TSLA, but most are smart enough to know when they've pounded about as much as they can, and then they switch and go long to ride it back up.

The shorts that are ideologues and fools, they won't cover until it is way too late. They won't be around for much longer, but there are always new fools to take their place.

Unfortunately for us perma-longs, the financial players will be happy to switch teams again and go short once the sp is back in the mid 300s. I'm hoping that by May/June the ramp will be obviously large enough that the financial players will be much more diverse; some will try to go short again to eke out more swing profits, but others will find it advantageous to stay long, and the sp can finally climb to a new ATH. After that there's a chance to climb to a completely new trading range, if the ramp is proceeding well. Just my two cents, not trading advice.

 

[defc0n]

Which is more likely tomorrow, profit taking putting downward pressure on price or short squeeze putting upward pressure?

It’s looking like macros will have a great day tomorrow. I have to assume TSLA will trend the same, even with some profit taking.

 

[Waiting4M3]

I learned in December not to add leverage on the way up. This time I learned not to add so much leverage on the way down trying to catch the falling knife. Best to wait for the bottom. On this particular dip, the bottom was obvious and you wouldn't have missed out on anything to add when it was confirmed. Lesson learned. Next lesson coming soon I'm sure.

Will the next lesson have to do with no adding leverage at some particular time?

 

[Causalien]

Yaah, but what about me?!?!?!?

By the way, the funds for same came from liquidating that NVDA position I mentioned 2 weeks ago. "Now, ¿What am I going to do with all that cash?"

It's not all, however, a bed of roses. I didn't discuss the two cutting-edge pharma-delivery names that we purchased. One's doing well; the other is a disaster.

Should've put your own money in it.

 

[sundaymorning]

I think the real wildcard here is the overall market. As long as that stays pretty flat or climbs, and we are heading into what should be a strong earnings season soon.

Finally someone mentioned this. From what I’ve been hearing so far is that this seasons earnings are predicted to be quite good for the overall market. Which will then justify some upward pressure across the board for Dow, Naz, SP..

Keep this in mind: “Rising tide lifts all boats.”

 

[Sanny]

What bug?

Nothing official, just my opinion based on a couple of unscientific tests

 

[AudubonB]

Should've put your own money in it.

Ha.


I guess I'm just like Spiegel: MOST of the funds are my own; likewise MOST of my funds are in it. Last I checked, I'm not so big as Soros.




Although, I did once...naaah...another story for another time.

 

[Uptownman]

Totally agree. There are two kinds of shorts -- the financial players and the ideologues/fools. The financial players will jump at any chance to pound down a volatile stock like TSLA, but most are smart enough to know when they've pounded about as much as they can, and then they switch and go long to ride it back up.
.

So here is a little math I think is relevant and am happy to share. Say person "A" shorts TSLA at $300 at a margin requirement of approximately $10k per hundred shares, "A" sells 1,000 shs. At $260 "A" decides to close out and is a buyer. His profit is $400,000. Profit on his $100k margin is 400% in a couple weeks. So do you think a good portion of the buyers today are short profit takers? "A" doesn't need to switch and "ride it back up", he just needs to buy, anything under $300 to lock in profits. I know this comment will get a bunch of disagrees but I hope for one"informative"

 

[ggr]

Nothing official, just my opinion based on a couple of unscientific tests

If it's a bug, I have it too. Driving from NYC back to Boston one time, in relatively bad visibility, I was driving at about 15mph following the lane lines and almost ran into a field when the lines diverged.

 

[pz1975]

So here is a little math I think is relevant and am happy to share. Say person "A" shorts TSLA at $300 at a margin requirement of approximately $10k per hundred shares, "A" sells 1,000 shs. At $260 "A" decides to close out and is a buyer. His profit is $400,000. Profit on his $100k margin is 400% in a couple weeks. So do you think a good portion of the buyers today are short profit takers? "A" doesn't need to switch and "ride it back up", he just needs to buy, anything under $300 to lock in profits. I know this comment will get a bunch of disagrees but I hope for one"informative"

Profit in your scenario would be $40K.

 

[MP3Mike]

Profit in your scenario would be $40K.

Assuming that no days have causing interest payments or trading fees were incurred.

 

[Causalien]

Ha.


I guess I'm just like Spiegel: MOST of the funds are my own; likewise MOST of my funds are in it. Last I checked, I'm not so big as Soros.




Although, I did once...naaah...another story for another time.

So you are really talking about yourself in third person when talking about your investors...

 

[Reciprocity]

I think the real wildcard here is the overall market. As long as that stays pretty flat or climbs, and we are heading into what should be a strong earnings season soon.

The markets are not rational around earnings. During the Last earnings quarter all I can remember is Apple, Facebook and Google and they all beat expectations and then they all dropped 5% the next day. It was fun.

 

[geometro]

Highly unlikely. Elon’s got balls of steel.

Sources tell me they are titanium with carbon fiber overlay. Just sayin.