TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[mongo]

Not true...9 million shares traded in two hours...

Over 9 million shares with most purchased at or above $300... How many are now out of play? If only we knew...

 

[Paracelsus]

And whaddayaknow - a positive Tweet from Dana Hull!

Dana Hull on Twitter

Thanks for sharing that. Is this an effort to distance herself from the larger smear campaign Elon informed 22 million followers about on Twitter today? When those that posted hit pieces start sharing positive Tesla news then the House of Cards has begun to fall. There may be a LOT of good news about Tesla coming from a LOT of previously negative sources in the very near future IMHO.

 

[brian45011]

No, but he can have a trading plan in place that says "If the price drops below $300, I will buy another million shares". So long as he did that well in advance, that would be legitimate. You can have basically anything in a trading plan, so long as it's algorithmically clear.

A section 16 officer or director can buy open market shares anytime but changes in ownership are reported on Form 4 and must be reported to the SEC within two business days.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

we can keep an eye on the pace and character of media responses to Elon’s tweets about the media.

Pravduh tweets last month were swiftly met with a flood of media commentary calling him paranoid, unfit to run a company, Trump-like, desperate and pointing fingers at everyone else for his so-called sinking ship.

So far I’ve only seen this,

Elon Musk lashes out at the media, again

note

1) it’s far less agressive in framing Musk in unflattering terms

2) Business Insider, Reuters, and CNBC all declined requests for comment from the author (and it was a CNBC article)

3) again, it’s the only direct article on this early AM’s Elon Tweets appearing at this point


It’s quite early, but, maybe, this is the first sign that the amount of teeth/cards showing through Elon’s tweets have changed the game to the point that at least some of these media outlets are now looking at what they pump out about Elon, Tesla, and its products, with an eye towards potentially being held legally responsible in a context where they do not know all the cards Elon is holding.

Remember, per Taibbi’s book, it was a lawsuit by Fairfax Financial that turned back the game Chanos et al were playing with media, Fairfax employees, regulators, etc, to try to steer Fairfax into a fabricated crisis of confidence.

In the story(on CNBC) you linked:
“CNBC declined to comment”

Hilarious.

 

[dc_h]

Wow. So Elon confirmed she had a real insider source and access to internal documents and hasn't been making up all those things?

Edit: Does anybody know, which article he is talking about and happens to have a link?

Is this Opposite Day? I forgot my left handed pencil set.

He confirmed the articles were based on spurious information and that she paid for the commission of what I believe to be a felony in the transmission of private corporate data. The further implication that she is affiliated with the largest short holder in tsla could imply a criminal conspiracy.

It is going to get interesting and Chanos doesn’t necessarily seem any more squeamish than Elon. I’ll bet some people who’ve been listening to him might start reaching out to more sources to find out if Tesla really makes sh*tty unreliable cars that only a few vegan tree huggers would buy and that Elon is Jeff Skilling in jesus robes.

Not sure why anyone would question the engineering and drive of someone like Musk. SpaceX is amazing. No one could have done that. lol at Russia, China and USA and japan and India and EU, all spending 10’s of billions and are decades behind a 15 year old company.

Basically FU to anyone who thinks all this is fake. Get out there ride in a car, go to Kennedy and watch a launch. The earth is not flat, Tesla makes great cars, the first Tesla Model S is to the current car as an iPhone 3 is to an iPhone 6 and by this time next year they’ll be past the equivalent of the iPhone X. They are innovating in cat years and the industry competition is copying their 2013 cars with handlebar tinsel on the dashboard.

Looking forward to this debate ending, but expect the shorts to fight this out til profits are steady and can’t be denied. Today Diogenes, presumed to be Chanos twitter handle tried bashing quality because a, yes a single Tesla was being towed, ergo Tesla’s run on tow truck power. LAME!

 

[defc0n]

Good thing my $295.97 stop loss didn't get hit there.

 

[Lbkmxp100d]

Wow, what a turn around. Monday we were up $25 and ended up down $10 for a $35 swing. Maybe we can be down $15 and up $20 for a $35 point swing for the good guys.

 

[Tslynk67]

Well given all the money thrown at it this morning, I'd say this is a stock people want to buy. Imagine if you're an institution looking to take a large position, this is pure mana.

Now we have a big push to stop it going green. Epic stuff!

Right, I'm off to the i-Pace launch event. Note that I'll take immense pleasure parking my XP100D as close to the entrance as possible... Will give some test-rides if I can

 

[Mike Smith]

Toni Sacconaghi has been dead right on Tesla, says Jim Cramer

Cramer doing his part on CNBC. Compares Tesla with Herbalife. 'You need more sellers!' [for the short to be effective].

Just an honest day's work.

Jim Cramer says Toni Sacconaghi does really fabulous work, and Jim is a very good judge of talent so perhaps we should all pay heed.

 

[Jayjs20]

Sorry about the drop, I decided to buy back in today; 100% in J20 400 call options again.

I'm not smart enough to math out the optimum time to buy, but I do know that 44 is smaller than 52, so it was essentially a free 23.8% gain in my position. Anyways, let the losses begin/continue.

 

[22522]

Do these raiders make or not make money currently? I'd really like to know.

They make millions off of triggering stop losses from new investors.

Essentially whenever there are new investors (not confident investors) they put in stop losses.

(I think some people may even have visibility to the thresholds. )

Anyway, on a light trading session, they are like kids jumping on a trampoline to trigger stop loss selling into a light market. Once they break a stop loss level the share price tanks and they buy it again. After the share price rises in a couple of weeks they do the same thing again.

These huge swings make them rich.

The way you solve that is to not use stop losses. So when they jump on the trampoline it feels like concrete. No downward acceleration in stock price.

This is what underlies Cramer’s people have to sell.

Stop loss milking does not work with a hardened stockholder base.

 

[Sancho]

Green.

Is there a Ticker Watcher Anonymous program I can enroll in? This volatility is feeding my addiction.

 

[SBenson]

The BoD has the option of changing the conversion ratio for the Free Conversion Period --At what conversion ratio does the Board of Directors want to announce to induce settlement with shares ? The conversion rate appears to capped at 3.9597 (equivalent to $252.54/share)
TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

Wow, you are good at finding fine print, Brian -- I gotta hand it to you. Sharp catch. I have been snippy to you in the past, but you are the absolute best fine-print-reader here, and possibly the best I've ever encountered. Serious admiration. I caught the weird fine print in the 2022s, but I missed this bit in the 2019/2021s.

I will lay bets very few of the convertible holders actually read this. Which means that my analysis of *their* behavior remains accurate. And I am quite sure the Chanos types didn't read it either (they seem to write a lot of propaganda, but they don't seem to do much reading) so *their* behavior will be the same as predicted.

However this is basically a flat-out option by Tesla to not pay off the convertible bonds in cash. They can, if they like, make the conversion price $252.54; at that point anyone would convert if the stock was under $252.89 (accounting for the foregone final interest payment). They can do this "for a period of at least 20 days" and then actually turn off the "discount".

I suppose if any short-sellers see this they may try to drive the price below $252.89. That's gonna be damn near impossible to sustain, April dip notwithstanding.

So it's impossible for the short-sellers to starve Tesla of capital; they just haven't realized it yet. Nice work, whoever wrote that prospectus. Musk clearly knows this, and it's information which is available to the public.

I really should have bought some of those bonds.

From what I am seeing the language is applicable in case of a fundamental change - as in a full cash takeover of the firm.

Will send a screengrab to both of you.

I am no expert just would like you guys to take a closer look.

 

[bdy0627]

Hard to say, I think there is a good chance it will go up quite a bit from now leading up to Q2 earnings. Many will disagree with me, and I obviously might be wrong, but I wouldn't hold through Q2 earnings report.

I currently still hold shares still since I'm expecting a short term rebound pretty soon, but I'm down quite a bit on this trade.

It will almost certainly go up and down quite a bit before the Q2 ER, possibly a lot. I'm not personally worried about it at this point.

 

[Papafox]

Meanwhile... in the secret TSLA short-seller bunker
"Boss, we're showing green!"
Boss: "Crap, all hands on deck, Bop-a-mole, bop-a-mole!"

 

[TrendTrader007]

$TSLA shorts lost the battle and they are about to lose the war i predicted a reversal of fortune today and that is exactly what is happening Chanos and his miserable ilk are about to lose out big time
the whole game that these sinister shorts are playing is psychological they want to totally dishearten $TSLA investors into selling and thereby self destruct in a perpetuated vicious cycle make no mistake this is psychological warfare of the highest order and i exaggerate not
today is the turn ultimate around day if $tsla ends the day positive then game over for shorts

i bet my last $ that no way $TSLA is closing below $300 EVER!

 

[jbih]

They make millions off of triggering stop losses from new investors.

Since the pattern is so obvious, why don't longs make money off of them? It seems to be easy: Sell as soon as the number of twitter posts by bears rises above x/hr and journalists publish more than 1 negative article in a day, sell, wait, buy. 15% profit/week.

 

[keydiver]

the whole game that these sinister shorts are playing is psychological they want to totally dishearten $TSLA investors into selling

Didn't work here. I used the MMD to add 25% more @ $300 to my holdings. Great to see it back in the green already!

 

[mongo]

Since the pattern is so obvious, why don't longs make money off of them? It seems to be easy: Sell as soon as the number of twitter posts by bears rises above x/hr and journalists publish more than 1 negative article in a day, sell, wait, buy. 15% profit/week.

Many times one could make money off the morning dip, purchase around 10am EST, sell around 11.
However, many are longs that are buy and hold, the money making is a long term plan.

(not to say I'm not torn over holding during the July 17 and 18 drops..)
trader vs investor vs supporter.

 

[SteveG3]

heavy effort by those with shorts to flood the tweets from Elon today with their false narratives amid the responses to his tweets. for those unfamiliar with twitter, most liked replies to each of Elon’s tweets filter to the top. currently short false narratives are filtering to the top. you can vote with your twitter account by liking tweets that are based on the facts.

Elon Musk (@elonmusk) on Twitter

easy and free to create a twitter account. the bulk of Elon’s response today were replies to other tweets, found on the “tweets and replies” tab.