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US Federal $7,500 Electric Vehicle Credit Expiry Date By Automaker

FlatSix911

Porsche 918 Hybrid
Jun 15, 2015
6,652
6,112
Silicon Valley
Model S+X sales in the US for Jan through May this year total only 15,000, so about 3,000 per month. Also, they seem to think it'll be Q3:

Tesla deliveries are not linear ... they ramp up and peak in the last month of every quarter.
Based on the most recent quarter ending March 2018, the total Model S and X deliveries were 6,200.
Let's hope that Tesla holds off on all US deliveries in June ... it's going to be very close to the 200K limit! :cool:

InkedMay 2018 US sales_LI.jpg
 

dhanson865

Active Member
Feb 16, 2013
4,562
7,014
Knoxville, Tennessee
Tesla deliveries are not linear ... they ramp up and peak in the last month of every quarter.

Except on the last conference call they said they would be avoiding/reducing that behavior in the future. They said it will smooth out over time as production ramps.

I'm sure it will be higher in June than it was in April but April-Jun might not be that much higher than Jan-Mar.

It'd take 2,530 Model S and 2,025 Model X to be on par for being similar to Q1 as a whole. I'd fully expect them to push S and X to the limit (somewhere between 4,600 and 6,000 between S and X) and defer on the lower margin Model 3 in June.
 
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cynicl12000

Member
Jun 7, 2018
12
10
Portland
I don’t know if I’m just one of a lucky few, but I am taking delivery of my 3 on Friday.

From the forums on Tesla’s site, I have seen at least a handful of others destined to take delivery this month (mostly with April config dates), leaving me wondering if the estimates are off, if Tesla is willing to deliver 200k this month regardless of the tax incentives, or if I’m just that lucky (unlikely, given my observations)
 

drawfour

Member
Mar 10, 2018
774
708
Seattle, WA
I don’t know if I’m just one of a lucky few, but I am taking delivery of my 3 on Friday.

From the forums on Tesla’s site, I have seen at least a handful of others destined to take delivery this month (mostly with April config dates), leaving me wondering if the estimates are off, if Tesla is willing to deliver 200k this month regardless of the tax incentives, or if I’m just that lucky (unlikely, given my observations)
I think Tesla is more than willing to forego short term profits to get long-term customer satisfaction (that being extending the tax incentive by 3 months for their customers).
 

cynicl12000

Member
Jun 7, 2018
12
10
Portland
You may very well be right, and it would certainly make sense for profit, too, as more cancellations would surely ensue at the announcement of 200k. However, it still seems to me as though a fair amount of April configurations are receiving VINS and delivery dates this month.

Again, it is entirely possibly that I, and others like me are a lucky few, or that estimates are off, but if neither of these are correct, it could also be that Tesla is more concerned with the shareholders expectations on deliveries than on the tax credits.
 

TT97

Active Member
Aug 6, 2017
2,173
2,910
Los Angeles
You may very well be right, and it would certainly make sense for profit, too, as more cancellations would surely ensue at the announcement of 200k. However, it still seems to me as though a fair amount of April configurations are receiving VINS and delivery dates this month.

Again, it is entirely possibly that I, and others like me are a lucky few, or that estimates are off, but if neither of these are correct, it could also be that Tesla is more concerned with the shareholders expectations on deliveries than on the tax credits.

Tesla still has about 6,000 sales left before hitting 200k - basically the same number of cars they sold in April. I am guessing their June #s will look a lot like April (and they will not have that quarter end surge for Ss & Xs they like to do). It will be less sales than May, but they still will probably have about 3,000 3s this month.

If they do hit 200k this month, I can see cancellations as anyone who recently reserved is in the 4-6 month window puting them squarely in Q4 and the rebate will be $3,750 instead of $7,500 if they delay the 200k to July.
 
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cynicl12000

Member
Jun 7, 2018
12
10
Portland
Why would there be even one cancellation at the announcement of 200k?

Splain it to me please.

If 200k is hit in June, the full credit will only be available through the end of September. Anyone not expecting delivery prior to then might cancel (particularly those waiting on SR), as the $3,750 difference may be a deal breaker to some.
 

cynicl12000

Member
Jun 7, 2018
12
10
Portland
Tesla still has about 6,000 sales left before hitting 200k - basically the same number of cars they sold in April. I am guessing their June #s will look a lot like April (and they will not have that quarter end surge for Ss & Xs they like to do). It will be less sales than May, but they still will probably have about 3,000 3s this month.

If they do hit 200k this month, I can see cancellations as anyone who recently reserved is in the 4-6 month window puting them squarely in Q4 and the rebate will be $3,750 instead of $7,500 if they delay the 200k to July.

I hope you’re right.
 

gavine

Petrol Head turned EV Enthusiast
Apr 1, 2014
2,593
2,119
Philadelphia, PA
If they do hit 200k this month, I can see cancellations as anyone who recently reserved is in the 4-6 month window puting them squarely in Q4 and the rebate will be $3,750 instead of $7,500 if they delay the 200k to July.

If this is the case, Tesla should then introduce the $35K Model.
 
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dhanson865

Active Member
Feb 16, 2013
4,562
7,014
Knoxville, Tennessee
Maybe this was asked....but how will the IRS tell the level of rebate you are entitled to? VIN number? First come first serve? other?

Delivery date. There is no limit to how many can get the rebate so all that matters is when you received the car and if you have enough tax liability to offset the credit.

Also it is a credit, not a rebate. If it were a rebate you could have $0 income and $0 tax liability and still receive it. As a credit you need a mid to high five figure income to have a $7,500 tax liability.

I have a high 5 figure household income but would only get something like two or three thousand from the EV tax credit.
 

SW2Fiddler

We Are Cognitive Dissidents
Mar 19, 2014
2,362
3,247
Houston TX
If 200k is hit in June, the full credit will only be available through the end of September. Anyone not expecting delivery prior to then might cancel (particularly those waiting on SR), as the $3,750 difference may be a deal breaker to some.

Thanks. That is more reasonable to say. It’s might and may, not “surely” any more?
Now that we’re guessing, I guess I disagree, don’t see the logic in such a cancellation in real life. Not immediately upon the announcement of the 200000th US delivery. I guess it’s possible, but not in any numbers over an imperceptible handful. $3,750 reduction of a potential tax credit (not everyone can claim it) which is not claimable until the year following delivery. I dunno, I think reservation holders who have waited this long will figure out how to save up most of that difference in the following 6 months instead of saying “That’s it, I’m out!”

Change my mind. Anyone here actually have that deal breaker?
 

seattlite2004

Active Member
Apr 12, 2016
1,186
1,341
Puget Sound
Thanks. That is more reasonable to say. It’s might and may, not “surely” any more?
Now that we’re guessing, I guess I disagree, don’t see the logic in such a cancellation in real life. Not immediately upon the announcement of the 200000th US delivery. I guess it’s possible, but not in any numbers over an imperceptible handful. $3,750 reduction of a potential tax credit (not everyone can claim it) which is not claimable until the year following delivery. I dunno, I think reservation holders who have waited this long will figure out how to save up most of that difference in the following 6 months instead of saying “That’s it, I’m out!”

Change my mind. Anyone here actually have that deal breaker?

Tesla Model 3 Buyers Will Flee Faster than Electrons When Electric Vehicle Tax Breaks End

"...Really, this should be obvious: If you believe that the consumer looking to spend $27,500 on a car will happily pay $35,000 instead, then you’ve never in your life shopped for a $27,500 car. Yes, I’m talking about a starter-version Tesla Model 3 with its 220-mile range. But the same truth applies to pricier Model 3s, or the Chevrolet Bolt, whose palatable $29,995 after-rebate base price will leave shoppers seeking Heimlich Maneuvers once it soars to $37,495. Such budget-busting price jumps—it’s 25 percent, for chrissakes—will kill mainstream EV sales like Raid kills bugs: Dead.
....
The logical fallacy is clear: Just because someone “could” afford something, doesn’t mean they'll buy it.

In reality, the pitfall for EV sales is cold and deep: Consumers will soon be asked to pay full retail price for something that was previously on sale, and has never not been on sale. American consumers just don’t do that.

To understand why, look to buyer psychology. Even for many people who “could” afford to pay cash for a Model 3, losing out on a $7,500 discount—or even the lesser $3,750—will instantly sour the deal. It’s like being 10 minutes late for the Black Friday sale on flat screen TVs, and finding out you’ll have to pay retail. Be honest: Do you say, “Oh, well, what’s another $500?” Of course not. You wait for another sale, a similar deal from a competitor, or you don’t buy the TV at all.

Since those vaunted money-on-trees types only represent a portion of EV buyers, consider the tens of thousands of normal, middle-class families in that Model 3 queue. For them, even a dead-stripper Model 3 at $35,000—about $1,000 below the transaction price of the average new car—can feel like a lot of money to spend on a car. Because it is. For $27,500, the Model 3 looks like a discount dreamboat, the tax break smoothing the path to a $446 monthly payment (figuring 10 percent down on $27,500, the rest financed over 60 months). Sans that $7,500 tax sweetener, but keeping the same $2,750 down payment, that family is now staring at a $581 monthly payment. Again, think like a real car shopper, not the mythical Midas of EV marketing fluff: If your budget says you can handle roughly $446 a month, many people couldn't justify a stretch to a more-luxurious car at $581 a month. Now, tell that person that they’re looking at $135 more per month for the exact same car, and they’ll tell you to go plug yourself.
....
Certainly, some percentage of card-carrying, climate-loving EV intenders will grit their teeth and cut the fatter check, perhaps by rationalizing that they didn’t lose $7,500, but only $3,750 or $1,875 as the incentives are phased out.
...."​
 
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SW2Fiddler

We Are Cognitive Dissidents
Mar 19, 2014
2,362
3,247
Houston TX
LOL.
Opinion Piece In Opinion Section Of TheDrive.com said:
To understand why, look to buyer psychology. Even for many people who “could” afford to pay cash for a Model 3, losing out on a $7,500 discount—or even the lesser $3,750—will instantly sour the deal. It’s like being 10 minutes late for the Black Friday sale on flat screen TVs, and finding out you’ll have to pay retail. Be honest:

Be honest: it’s not a discount. It’s not a Costco rebate-taken-at-the-register. It’s a credit against tax liability claimable the next year. Everyone pays retail for a Tesla, no exceptions.
 
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cynicl12000

Member
Jun 7, 2018
12
10
Portland
LOL.


Be honest: it’s not a discount. It’s not a Costco rebate-taken-at-the-register. It’s a credit against tax liability claimable the next year. Everyone pays retail for a Tesla, no exceptions.

That is accurate, but I, for one, calculated a net cost and included the incentive as a part of that. I suspect I am not alone in that. Regardless, there is no way either of us can know with certainty which position is accurate, as online surveys (including those in forums) are notoriously inaccurate.

Additionally, until reports come in on quarterly deliveries for Q2 and we can deal with real numbers, speculation on cancellations due to the wind-down will be just that. While we won’t be able to determine causation vs correlation once the 200k threshold hits, if we see an uptick in cancellations immediately after, we could make an assumption that at least some of those likely had to do with that. If we don’t, we can assume that the tax credit held no relevance whatsoever
 
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