US Federal $7,500 Electric Vehicle Credit Expiry Date By Automaker

[TT97]

Tesla won't hold S/X (higher margin/revenue) delivery but they will hold Model 3 delivery to push 200K into Q3

The only caveat I would add is that Tesla will probably not have that quarter-end push fir the S/X that they typically have. I think Tesla will not push to get those in Q2 and be content to have them "in transit" until July.

Also, Elon already stated he expects Q3 will be profitable (with Q2 still having a loss) - it would be to Tesla's benefit to delay the higher revenue sales into July to help achieve a profit for Q3.

 

[dhanson865]

No need to hold back S or X, ship as many of those as they have orders for, full speed ahead. No matter if they are US, Canada, overseas, to Mars, wherever, any one they can sell ship it.

Model 3 they can ship as many to Canada as they have orders for, full speed ahead.

Model 3 production they can keep going, full speed ahead whenever they want in June.

Model 3 deliveries for US they need to hit the brakes in June, hit the go pedal in July.

To add a little color to this

Q1 production totaled 34,494 (9,766 were Model 3)
Q1 deliveries totaled 29,980 (8,180 were Model 3)

So in a quarter where they weren't trying to hold back any model 3 they produced 20% more model 3 than they delivered.

Divert as many as you can to Canada and continue to produce as many as you can for the US without delivering them and wallah you have everything in place for a gang buster Q3 and still have a solid Q2.

 

[Seven7]

Please forgive me for not reading ten pages of this thread, but can somebody tell me if Tesla purchasers will be able to take advantage of the full $7,500.- tax credit until the end of 2018?

 

[kengchang]

Please forgive me for not reading ten pages of this thread, but can somebody tell me if Tesla purchasers will be able to take advantage of the full $7,500.- tax credit until the end of 2018?

No one knows until July, and Tesla will be stupid to cross it in June

 

[dhanson865]

Please forgive me for not reading ten pages of this thread, but can somebody tell me if Tesla purchasers will be able to take advantage of the full $7,500.- tax credit until the end of 2018?

No one knows until July, and Tesla will be stupid to cross it in June

What Ken said, We'll probably know informally Monday July 2nd but we may have to wait for Friday July 6th for an after stock market closes announcement to make it official.

 

[FlatSix911]

Here is the updated data for May for US deliveries ... All Tesla models S, X & 3 = 9,220 Monthly Plug-In Sales Scorecard
Based on the Total US deliveries reported through April 184,801 + May 9,220 = 194,021
The 6 Automakers Closest To Losing Federal Tax Credit
Therefore, Tesla must deliver less than 6,000 (5,979) vehicles in June to stay under the 200,000 federal limit
It's going to be very close ... Tesla delivered 6,200 Model S & X vehicles in the last month (March) of the previous quarter.

1.Tesla – 184,801 (estimated, including Tesla Roadster)

 

[dhanson865]

Here is the updated data for May for US deliveries ... All Tesla models S, X & 3 = 9220 Monthly Plug-In Sales Scorecard
Based on the Total US deliveries reported through April 183,801 + May 9,220 = 193, 021 Grand Total
Therefore, Tesla must deliver less than 7000 (6979) vehicles in June to stay under the 200,000 federal limit
It's going to be very close ... Tesla delivered 6,200 Model S & X vehicles in the last month (March) of the previous quarter.

Yeah, and here is the commentary from insideevs

The Tesla Model 3 has reached a much higher level of production output and consistency as of late. Three shutdowns have worked to make improvements to build quality and speed. March was an incredible month for Tesla’s hugely popular new small sedan. In fact, in regards to EVs, it was the best month of all time for any automaker in the U.S. This was true not only for the Model 3, but also for Tesla as a whole.

The Model 3 stayed at the top in April, with an estimated 3,875 delivered, for a total of over 12,000 on the year. The Silicon Valley automaker sold an estimated 10,000 vehicles in March in the U.S. alone, over 6,000 of which were the company’s Model S and Model X. To top it off, Tesla took the lead for global EV sales for March and the quarter. In April, S and X sales were flat, which was to be expected, since historically the automaker has delivered less in the U.S. at the opening of each quarter. We expected May to pan out the same with S and X sales similar to that of last year and Model 3 sales are sharply rising.

Our research and data prove our expectations in the form of solid estimates. We found Tesla deliveries as follows: 1,520 Model S – 1,450 Model X – and 6,250 Model 3s, edging the automaker dangerously close to the 200,000 mark (based on our estimates), which will soon trigger the sunset of the federal EV tax credit.

The funny thing is if they defer a bunch of US Model 3 deliveries the insideevs monthly scorecard line for the model 3 will look really low for June. That will be the thing that stands out every month when new numbers come out setting new highs.

I'm thinking for June 2018 something like just under 6,000 S and X (some ratio of 2xxx Model X and 2xxx or 3xxx Model S), and very few Model 3 possibly a 3 digit number in that slot staring at us from here on.

 

[kengchang]

I don't see how Tesla can't and won't do it. Tesla has already sold more Model 3 than previous quarter and 2K+ Model 3 in Canada. The financial should show much less cash burn while showing large in-transit Model 3 than the previous quarter.

 

[lapolak]

Forgive me for not reading through the 10 pages...

How does providing evidence for the tax credit work? Does Tesla provide you with documentation supporting that you are X out of X sold and therefore eligible for the tax credit? I've tried Googling that but not come up with a clear answer. It clearly can't go by VIN since each model has its own VIN structure.

 

[DR61]

How does providing evidence for the tax credit work?

If I remember from the last time I did the form, you supply the VIN and date in service. IRS does the rest. No documentation required.

 

[gavine]

If I remember from the last time I did the form, you supply the VIN and date in service. IRS does the rest. No documentation required.

Right. There’s a spot in tax Software that asks if you bought an EV and if you select “yes”, it asks for VIN. That’s it.

 

[MP3Mike]

Forgive me for not reading through the 10 pages...

How does providing evidence for the tax credit work? Does Tesla provide you with documentation supporting that you are X out of X sold and therefore eligible for the tax credit? I've tried Googling that but not come up with a clear answer. It clearly can't go by VIN since each model has its own VIN structure.

There is no "X out of X" as there isn't a hard cut-off. Once Tesla has delivered the 200,000th car in the US the full credit extends for the rest of that quarter and the next quarter. Then it drops in half for two more quarters, etc...

In theory Tesla could sell 250k cars in the close-out period of the full credit, meaning that 450k cars qualified for it.

The IRS form doesn't appear to support the reduced credit amount yet, since no manufacturer has gotten that far.

 

[Seven7]

Forgive me for not reading through the 10 pages...

How does providing evidence for the tax credit work? Does Tesla provide you with documentation supporting that you are X out of X sold and therefore eligible for the tax credit? I've tried Googling that but not come up with a clear answer. It clearly can't go by VIN since each model has its own VIN structure.

My accountant takes care of it, files a form (8936) with the IRS, your accountant will need the VIN and the in service date.

 

[Seven7]

https://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-pdf/f8936.pdf

 

[FlatSix911]

Just updated with May 2018 deliveries ...The 6 Automakers Closest To Losing Federal Tax Credit
The numbers confirm that Tesla must sell less than 6,000 cars in June to stay under the 200K limit...
Highly unlikely given the current Model S/X sales rate of 6,200 in March and not including any Model 3.

Tesla – 194,021 (estimated, including Tesla Roadsters not yet shown on the graph)
Taking into consideration the numbers and pace of sales in the past months, Tesla should hit 200,000 first, in the second quarter of this year

 

[MP3Mike]

The numbers confirm that Tesla must sell less than 6,000 cars in June to stay under the 200K limit.

I wouldn't say it confirms that, it is estimated that that is how far away they are. Tesla is likely the only entity that could confirm what the number actually is.

 

[H2050]

They could still "Produce" but not selling the car yet.
They can simply deliver the numbers they can in June, which is about 6k, then in July deliver 15k of them.
It might be harsh on the delivery team but that's one way to do it.

 

[Elektron]

They are not holding back MS deliveries. I ordered 5/23 and my DS emailed me yesterday wanting me to take delivery last week of june, and definitely by june 30, as he explained they are wanting a june delivery.

 

[mongo]

They are not holding back MS deliveries. I ordered 5/23 and my DS emailed me yesterday wanting me to take delivery last week of june, and definitely by june 30, as he explained they are wanting a june delivery.

Deliver X/S hold off on 3 would make profit.. I mean sense...

 

[favo]

Just updated with May 2018 deliveries ...The 6 Automakers Closest To Losing Federal Tax Credit
The numbers confirm that Tesla must sell less than 6,000 cars in June to stay under the 200K limit...
Highly unlikely given the current Model S/X sales rate of 6,200 in March and not including any Model 3.

Tesla – 194,021 (estimated, including Tesla Roadsters not yet shown on the graph)
Taking into consideration the numbers and pace of sales in the past months, Tesla should hit 200,000 first, in the second quarter of this year

Model S+X sales in the US for Jan through May this year total only 15,000, so about 3,000 per month.

Also, they seem to think it'll be Q3:

Taking into consideration the numbers and pace of sales in the past months, Tesla should hit 200,000 first, in the second quarter of this year (probably July/Q3 though).